Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Louisville one
https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/louisville-cardinals
It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.
Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.
So, what'd I get wrong? Louisville won at No. 2 Miami and then lost three home games by 3, 3 and 1. You outgained ACC opponents by 82 yards a game and still went 4-4, when that margin usually produces about a 67% league win rate. The defense was 16th in yards allowed, but the offense finished 105th on third down. Now 19% of the production is back, the receiver room lost 13 bodies including Chris Bell's 917 yards, and Miller Moss gives way to Lincoln Kienholz, who threw for 139 yards at Ohio State last season. My model still says 8-4. Do you buy that with this much turnover?
I'll be in the comments.