I don't know much about stocks, but since Covid I've been low key obsessed with how Upwork as a platform is actually doing. Not the usual client/freelancer relationship stuff we talk about here, but the business itself.
Back in 2019 when I joined, you actually had to optimize your profile to get accepted. I got rejected the first time. That barrier was never foolproof, but it did weed out a chunk of unskilled freelancers. Didn't matter if you'd been there since 2010 when it was still Odesk, the platform worked. Upwork was a genuine tech company then: screenshot tracking app for client assurance, secure payments for freelancers. It worked well.
Then 2020 happened, and that whole gate disappeared. Anyone with an email could join. Freelancer quality dropped, and the only thing keeping the business model afloat was Connects, pay to apply.
Investors loved it though. More applicants meant more Connects sold. And honestly, as a freelancer it wasn't a problem yet, the ROI was still there. Upwork's matching (invites) was solid, and if you did well, their SEO worked in your favor too. During Covid they went full aggressive on marketing. Remember the zombie ads? Fun, but wildly unnecessary.
2023 is when it started cracking. Layoffs began, post pandemic overhiring officially. Around the same time users got loud on the Upwork forums about all the changes. Upwork didn't want that negative sentiment reaching investors, so they slowly started dismantling the forums, even the huddles, which used to genuinely help freelancers worldwide optimize their profiles and positioning. 2024 brought more layoffs, and the forums were killed off completely. They wanted to control the narrative. The changes on the website felt like staging, good only from the outside.
I haven't touched on AI much because I think it fooled a lot of companies into inflated profitability projections. Upwork post AI is arguably worse at actually helping users than it was pre AI boom, back when it was still "just" an algorithm that used to work well.
Now with heavy insider selling, it looks like investors are bailing. Maybe that forces some sanity into decision making. Or maybe it's too late, there aren't enough clients left to match the freelancer pool that's ballooned. Upwork still needs to make money, and a lot has to change.
As a freelancer, sinking money into Connects in this bidding race isn't for me anymore. I kept telling myself it might get better, kept spending. A decision that never used to feel like a gamble because the ROI used to justify it. My advice: diversify. Traditional client outreach, other platforms, whatever works, just don't die on the Connects hill.