r/2007scape • u/4sseater69 • 5h ago
RNG What is wrong with me
Am I doing something wrong? I kill all moons, and still nothing. Am i just very unlucky? Should I just give up?
80
u/Ok_Air4372 5h ago
If youre an iron take comfort in the prayer and herb xp you're getting and also free soft clay for tabs
16
u/CategoryNo5932 5h ago
Even as a main that stuff is nice. I haven't had to buy tp tabs in years and I've gotten from 70-80 prayer just from turning the bones into shards. Saved so much money in bones and herbs
25
25
u/clarj 4h ago
Are you killing two skeletons and a worm before opening the chest?
31
57
u/A_Bit_Of_Nonsense 5h ago
Youre no closer to your first drop than when you first started.
Odds are youll get 6 drops in your next 113 kills.
Chin up lad.
-23
u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago
It'd be 12 to balance out the RNG though right? Since moons are approx 1/19
30
8
u/Beautiful-Dot-1710 4h ago
Balancing rng takes hundreds if not thousands of kills not another hundred.
-7
u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago
Sure, but it should be closer to 12 than 6 though right?
Maybe RNGesus will shine on him and he'll be back in another 100 kills with 15 drops. Gotta love it.
Edit: between 6 and 12 is what I really meant.
8
u/Cyberslasher 4h ago
If middle of the bell curve is 6 drops per 113 kills (I don't know it is, off hand) then he is equally likely to get 0 drops in the next 113 kills as he is to get 12 drops in the next 113 kills
4
u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago
Idk why but this made it click for me. Thanks for the visual on that. Cheers!
1.61% chance of 12 in 113.
And yeah, 113 is damn close to on rate for 6 (it's 114).
2
2
u/Beautiful-Dot-1710 4h ago
It should he closer to 6. Could be 8 could be 4.
6 uniques in 100 kills is about average.
-3
u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago
But thats over 100 kills. Were now considering 200 total kills where he should be closer to 10 drops.
I realize the first 100 had nothing to do with the next 100 though and every kill is independent. Numbers gotta make some progress on catching up to average eventually. I realize even 200 is a small sample, but even 6 drops in 200 is 95%. 10 is 61%. (0 in 113 is 99.78%, or 1/450, ouch).
1
•
u/SupremeDuckling Untrimmed Slayer Cape 38m ago
Numbers don’t have to make progress toward catching up to average. That is the gamblers fallacy.
•
u/The_Tri_Guy 100 15m ago
Welcome to OSRS! Where we all think were going to get spooned and get the b2b (you do go for the b2b everytime right?).
They dont have to, but they probably will over a large enough sample set (that's impossible for a single person to reach in most cases).
•
u/SupremeDuckling Untrimmed Slayer Cape 3m ago
Right, but you said it should be closer to 12 than 6 after 200. At this point since he’s gotten 0 at 100, it’s most likely that he has 6 at 200, not closer to 12.
6
0
u/8_bw 3h ago
2
u/The_Tri_Guy 100 3h ago
18
u/jakeburls 4h ago
Sometimes you just need to change perspective. Instead of being upset about the dry streak, trick your primitive primate brain to see how far you can go before you get a drop, thus inducing dopamine hits inversely. This is how I have to play most of the time because I too have a bad account seed 😂
10
8
25
u/OnlyAProgram 5h ago
3
u/4sseater69 4h ago
has to be photoshop
2
u/OnlyAProgram 4h ago
I'm up to 18 chests right now but this is true. Got Dual Macuahuitl on the first KC
5
4
u/howabouthappy 3h ago
That's what you get for spooning dragon fire shield on your first lava dragon
2
4
u/chahud 3h ago
Did you talk to Oziach???
1
1
u/Lllamanator 3h ago
This is definitely a log of someone who didn't go through the dialogue with Oziach.
5
2
2
u/Cwreck92 cyan:wave: selling cooked trout - 25 gp ea - edgeville bank! 4h ago
Don’t worry. It took me 120 kc for my first unique, then I green logged moons by 441. As bad as it feels now, you’ll get it all here soon.
2
u/Urusae_Kragface 4h ago
Your RNG is very shite here, but this means you’re going to get absolutely spooned later. There’s usually one boss that gets spooned on every account
2
u/Random_Seattle_Guy 4h ago
If you give up, you'll never get the drop.
If you keep going, you'll eventually get the drop.
Stop thinking "if". Start thinking "when".
Good luck, brother. I believe in you.
1
1
1
1
1
u/Fallenrang3r 2376 | 1850+ Iron 5h ago
I just finished mine at 117 so maybe you’ll get the rest in the next few chests?
1
u/CategoryNo5932 5h ago
I got every piece except 2 my chest 140. I'm now at 300 without seeing anything
1
1
1
u/Emotional_Permit5845 5h ago
Took me 101 for my first piece, by the time I green logged I was at a 1/65 drop rate on average. Just keep pushing
1
u/Bonfire184 5h ago
I had similar luck until like 160kc no uniques. Then like 4 pieces within 40 kc! I’ve just got 2 pieces left
1
1
u/WarspitesGuns 4h ago
Yeowch. I just got spooned on Blood Moon Tassets at 11KC today so the Lunar Chest is working
1
u/No_You_6554 4h ago
Statistically you'll go dry at one place and be spooned at another. Be happy its moons I suppose and hope you get spooned elsewhere.
1
1
u/CroakerTheLiberator 3h ago
Well this is encouraging, as someone who is planning to farm the moons for a while. I hope your curse breaks soon
1
u/fitzgoneferal 3h ago
I don't understand how you have so few darts, I'm at same chests roughly with 10k darts. Are you killing all three moons before opening the chest or just farming blood moon?
2
1
u/4sseater69 2h ago
I have a lot of darts too. I think it is showing me the maximum darts i gotten from a kill, not total.
1
1
u/highphiv3 1h ago
I went a little longer than this with nothing. Had greenlog after ~250. Keep at it, rng is coming your way!
1
u/dominc1994r 1h ago
Moons is rough because you just get nothing unless you get a decent drop, I went 3x over drop rate here just took a break and came back a couple weeks later
1
•
•
u/Rich-Tomatillo9979 35m ago
I had 3 items at like 120 kc then greenlogged by 180 or so. Just keep going and the drops will even out
0
0
u/DryetherMoleasses 5h ago
2
u/General_BP 4h ago
I was similar with insane luck at moons on eclipse and blue moons but horrible luck on blood moons. I got my first blood moons drop around 150 and ended up going to 360 before completing the set while having multiples of the others
0
0
u/kooleynestoe 4h ago
Maybe you should accept the lord Jesus Christ as your savior and see what happens. You heathen.
0
u/BRedd10815 4h ago
Bad rng here = good rng somewhere else. Go run toa and get a 1kc shadow or something.
0





215
u/runepeddler the scyther 5h ago
unlucky account seed. delete and try again.