r/2007scape 5h ago

RNG What is wrong with me

Post image

Am I doing something wrong? I kill all moons, and still nothing. Am i just very unlucky? Should I just give up?

243 Upvotes

90 comments sorted by

215

u/runepeddler the scyther 5h ago

unlucky account seed. delete and try again.

82

u/CTProper 5h ago

I 100% believe in the account seed. that is my osrs tin foil hat

12

u/Jaye7w7 4h ago

Me too, my main was never spooned or onrate for anything, overly dry everywhere. my uim? spooned everywhere and i mean everywhere, never went dry or onrate, always spooning. 3 enha in red prison before 6 armor seed kind of spooned. Account seed is real, noone can tell me otherwise.

18

u/F4hype 3h ago edited 56m ago

One of the guys in our GIM walked into bandos with us. Gets tassets at 3kc, chest at 15kc. Proceeds to never do bandos again.

Goes to bryophyta for shits and gigs. 8kc staff.

Then we hit zammy, the man gets 1kc staff of the dead and 12kc spear. Proceeds to never do zammy again.

He stops playing. We keep grinding for a year. He comes back, I shit you not, when scurrius launches... because he likes rats. Logs in, has pet in first 20kc. Stops playing again.

Comes back a few months ago. Goes to hueycoatl. He has 13kc. He also now has dragon hunter wand & an earth tome.

Meanwhile, I consider going on rate for ANYTHING to be extremely lucky on my account. I'm pretty damn late game, and the only place I can think of where I'm better than drop rate is ToA, and that is currently just better by 1 purple so we're hanging on by a thread.

Currently 1700 hydra KC with no leather. 2500 tormented demons with 1 synapse. 23 million slayer xp with no imbued heart OR eternal gem.

Hell, I've recently killed 600 venators with the increased Mortimer drop chance and only even SPAWNED a single superior across 4 tasks.

At this point I don't even start content with any hope, or even any actual desire to see a drop before going to rate. I think I might be stockholmed.

3

u/unknownbiosign 2h ago

Do you rate 5 stars on log out? You have to. Jamflex demands it

u/LoLingSoHard 51m ago

if you average your two accounts, you're probably close to on-rate

6

u/Acewi <3 Sailing 5h ago

Tbh in RS2 I never got drops. In OSRS I've felt lucky the whole way. In reality, I was inefficient and bad at RS2, and in OSRS I play harder and smarter. Dry streaks will happen the longer you play the game.

u/Ryuuzaki_L 1m ago

If it is true. I feel like this is something that Jagex could absolutely never disclose.

1

u/FullMoonRennala 4h ago

I fully believed in the account seed when I went way over drop rate at barrows and got two zenyte shards in less than 100 kills. Now I’m 150 kills dry at moons. Either account seed isn’t real or moons aren’t real.

2

u/runepeddler the scyther 5h ago

jk just keep pushing bro!

80

u/Ok_Air4372 5h ago

If youre an iron take comfort in the prayer and herb xp you're getting and also free soft clay for tabs

16

u/CategoryNo5932 5h ago

Even as a main that stuff is nice. I haven't had to buy tp tabs in years and I've gotten from 70-80 prayer just from turning the bones into shards. Saved so much money in bones and herbs

25

u/Stephen_Lynx 5h ago

Have you tried just getting the drop?

25

u/clarj 4h ago

Are you killing two skeletons and a worm before opening the chest?

31

u/4sseater69 4h ago

not skeletons but im squeezing a worm in real life before opening every chest

2

u/snowmunkey 3h ago

Maybe switch to before every moon? pump those numbers up?

57

u/A_Bit_Of_Nonsense 5h ago
  1. Youre no closer to your first drop than when you first started.

  2. Odds are youll get 6 drops in your next 113 kills.

Chin up lad.

-23

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago

It'd be 12 to balance out the RNG though right? Since moons are approx 1/19

30

u/A_Bit_Of_Nonsense 3h ago

RNG got no memory im afraid

8

u/Beautiful-Dot-1710 4h ago

Balancing rng takes hundreds if not thousands of kills not another hundred.

-7

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago

Sure, but it should be closer to 12 than 6 though right?

Maybe RNGesus will shine on him and he'll be back in another 100 kills with 15 drops. Gotta love it.

Edit: between 6 and 12 is what I really meant.

8

u/Cyberslasher 4h ago

If middle of the bell curve is 6 drops per 113 kills (I don't know it is, off hand) then he is equally likely to get 0 drops in the next 113 kills as he is to get 12 drops in the next 113 kills

4

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago

Idk why but this made it click for me. Thanks for the visual on that. Cheers!

1.61% chance of 12 in 113.

And yeah, 113 is damn close to on rate for 6 (it's 114).

2

u/4sseater69 4h ago

you will definitely know

2

u/Beautiful-Dot-1710 4h ago

It should he closer to 6. Could be 8 could be 4.

6 uniques in 100 kills is about average.

-3

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 4h ago

But thats over 100 kills. Were now considering 200 total kills where he should be closer to 10 drops.

I realize the first 100 had nothing to do with the next 100 though and every kill is independent. Numbers gotta make some progress on catching up to average eventually. I realize even 200 is a small sample, but even 6 drops in 200 is 95%. 10 is 61%. (0 in 113 is 99.78%, or 1/450, ouch).

1

u/4sseater69 4h ago

Thank you for putting it in the perspective

u/SupremeDuckling Untrimmed Slayer Cape 38m ago

Numbers don’t have to make progress toward catching up to average. That is the gamblers fallacy.

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 15m ago

Welcome to OSRS! Where we all think were going to get spooned and get the b2b (you do go for the b2b everytime right?).

They dont have to, but they probably will over a large enough sample set (that's impossible for a single person to reach in most cases).

u/SupremeDuckling Untrimmed Slayer Cape 3m ago

Right, but you said it should be closer to 12 than 6 after 200. At this point since he’s gotten 0 at 100, it’s most likely that he has 6 at 200, not closer to 12.

6

u/Beretot 2376 3h ago

RNG doesn't balance unlucky streaks with lucky streaks

Everything ahead of you is theoretically average, and being average pulls your running total closer to average

2

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 3h ago

Thats a good way to look at it thats pretty simple good shout.

0

u/8_bw 3h ago

2

u/The_Tri_Guy 100 3h ago

At least use the OSRS version... and heaven forbid someome have a misunderstanding of statistics.

18

u/jakeburls 4h ago

Sometimes you just need to change perspective. Instead of being upset about the dry streak, trick your primitive primate brain to see how far you can go before you get a drop, thus inducing dopamine hits inversely. This is how I have to play most of the time because I too have a bad account seed 😂

10

u/YuGi_frm_Yugioh 3h ago

1

u/Gainzpolar It's not arson if it's consent 1h ago

I do too! Rng is fake! Its seeds like terraria's

8

u/badhippies 5h ago

you’ll get a drop within the next 20 kc trust

25

u/OnlyAProgram 5h ago

Skill issue tbh

3

u/4sseater69 4h ago

has to be photoshop

2

u/OnlyAProgram 4h ago

I'm up to 18 chests right now but this is true. Got Dual Macuahuitl on the first KC

5

u/kajarann 5h ago

it be like that sometimes

4

u/howabouthappy 3h ago

That's what you get for spooning dragon fire shield on your first lava dragon

2

u/4sseater69 3h ago

wait what, how do you know i have dragon fire shield

4

u/Gainzpolar It's not arson if it's consent 1h ago

Nothing is hidden between sky and earth

3

u/MadBase 4h ago

Damn, I greenlogged in less KC than this.

4

u/chahud 3h ago

Did you talk to Oziach???

1

u/4sseater69 3h ago

for what?

1

u/Lllamanator 3h ago

This is definitely a log of someone who didn't go through the dialogue with Oziach.

5

u/4sseater69 2h ago

I have talked to Oziach and now I got 3 rare drops

2

u/MyTeaIsMighty 5h ago

Good lord

2

u/Cwreck92 cyan:wave: selling cooked trout - 25 gp ea - edgeville bank! 4h ago

Don’t worry. It took me 120 kc for my first unique, then I green logged moons by 441. As bad as it feels now, you’ll get it all here soon.

2

u/Urusae_Kragface 4h ago

Your RNG is very shite here, but this means you’re going to get absolutely spooned later. There’s usually one boss that gets spooned on every account

2

u/Random_Seattle_Guy 4h ago

If you give up, you'll never get the drop.

If you keep going, you'll eventually get the drop.

Stop thinking "if". Start thinking "when".

Good luck, brother. I believe in you.

2

u/Vytome Tithe Farm Enjoyer 3h ago

Damn, beat my record of going 99 chests dry

1

u/Practical-Half3597 5h ago

keep pushing the drops will come eventually 🙏

1

u/Bleak1818 5h ago

Just very unlucky. Keep pushing! You've got this!

1

u/HomestewedBlaziken 5h ago

Keep pushing. You'll get the drop.

1

u/byubreak 5h ago

Dear lord

1

u/Fallenrang3r 2376 | 1850+ Iron 5h ago

I just finished mine at 117 so maybe you’ll get the rest in the next few chests?

1

u/CategoryNo5932 5h ago

I got every piece except 2 my chest 140. I'm now at 300 without seeing anything

1

u/Fallenrang3r 2376 | 1850+ Iron 3h ago

You’ll get it champ! Keep up the grind!

1

u/1dgtlkey 5h ago

Nah you got really lucky

1

u/Fallenrang3r 2376 | 1850+ Iron 3h ago

Yeah, it’s a joke lol

1

u/Emotional_Permit5845 5h ago

Took me 101 for my first piece, by the time I green logged I was at a 1/65 drop rate on average. Just keep pushing

1

u/Bonfire184 5h ago

I had similar luck until like 160kc no uniques. Then like 4 pieces within 40 kc! I’ve just got 2 pieces left

1

u/1dgtlkey 5h ago

Nah keep going

1

u/WarspitesGuns 4h ago

Yeowch. I just got spooned on Blood Moon Tassets at 11KC today so the Lunar Chest is working

1

u/No_You_6554 4h ago

Statistically you'll go dry at one place and be spooned at another. Be happy its moons I suppose and hope you get spooned elsewhere.

1

u/Vundebar 3h ago

do NOT buy a lottery ticket

1

u/CroakerTheLiberator 3h ago

Well this is encouraging, as someone who is planning to farm the moons for a while. I hope your curse breaks soon

1

u/fitzgoneferal 3h ago

I don't understand how you have so few darts, I'm at same chests roughly with 10k darts. Are you killing all three moons before opening the chest or just farming blood moon?

2

u/Syiuu Moshi moshi, Jagex. You're late on your server bill by 1 month 2h ago

The clog stops counting past 250 with only certain items going passed it.

1

u/4sseater69 2h ago

I have a lot of darts too. I think it is showing me the maximum darts i gotten from a kill, not total.

1

u/BIitzez 3h ago

god damn man im sorry

1

u/Blurbii 2h ago

Nice

1

u/Mundane-Stick-9052 2h ago

How did you offend jagex?

1

u/highphiv3 1h ago

I went a little longer than this with nothing. Had greenlog after ~250. Keep at it, rng is coming your way!

1

u/dominc1994r 1h ago

Moons is rough because you just get nothing unless you get a decent drop, I went 3x over drop rate here just took a break and came back a couple weeks later

1

u/Dobination 1h ago

I got blue moon pants for my quest KC and haven’t been back since lmao

u/Cam095 58m ago

oh lawd. and here i was getting irritated about two pieces in 100kc lol i guess it could be worse

u/heidly_ees 45m ago

Did you talk to Oziach first?

u/Rich-Tomatillo9979 35m ago

I had 3 items at like 120 kc then greenlogged by 180 or so. Just keep going and the drops will even out

0

u/Djcalied 5h ago

Sheesh. I got dual macaroni's and blue moon legs before 50kc ....

0

u/DryetherMoleasses 5h ago

Sorry for your bad rng

2

u/General_BP 4h ago

I was similar with insane luck at moons on eclipse and blue moons but horrible luck on blood moons. I got my first blood moons drop around 150 and ended up going to 360 before completing the set while having multiples of the others

0

u/4sseater69 5h ago

unbelievable...

0

u/kooleynestoe 4h ago

Maybe you should accept the lord Jesus Christ as your savior and see what happens. You heathen.

0

u/BRedd10815 4h ago

Bad rng here = good rng somewhere else. Go run toa and get a 1kc shadow or something.

0

u/KingofSelfloathing 3h ago

Your finna have an amazing next 150 kc