r/ASX_Bets • u/mcfucking • 16d ago
G'day cucks and cuckettes, it's been a minute. Lines go up, lines go down. Anyway, time to yeet a few people into the band lands to satisfy the maket gods with their scarifices.
UPDATES
Fat-Black-Cat- reminded us of the toll investing can take.
BananaFarmer88 forgot that what is dead may never die.
Particular_Love_8811 got some chickens just in time for bird flue.
NEW BETS
FameLuck and kangaroute both went full GFM (green friday movement) gang. Unfortunatly jinxing it for the rest of us. so the will both be having a week off. With gingy already having served their time its just the kanga going in the box today. Unwilling to accept defeat and in defiance of their username, the kanga doubled down on a GFM for friday the 7th. That's 2 weeks for you.
Old-Asian-Lady has called the bottom with gold to hit $4450 before the end of September or 2 months in the gulag.
WolfREEEEEE used their first breaths of freedom to bet AT4 to reach 10c by the end of the week or 1 week in the slammer. I guess your freedom was fun while it lasted.
WowVeryJosh got a little frisky betting BNZ to announce a new significant intercept or discovery on Monday morning (3rd August) for Diggers and Dealers risking a week in the slammer. Well played. WVJ won their bet, but it came at a cost.
bananadennis has stepped up to the plate, betting TLX to touch $20 by 30 September or 1 week in the slammer.
BuyDipsShortVIX has bet BLS FY26 Annual Report numbers for NPBT (Net Profit Before Tax) to come in >= $17.5m or else they'll take a week to think about their actions.
Fun-Time4064 made a ban bet: EYE above 20c by end of August or 1 week in the slammer. I'd tell them they're seeing things, but I think they're just blind.
debtandregret1984 bets BGD to go over $1 by October 1st or they're in the sin bin for a month.
jakemyork is anticipating a new ATH coming very soon for EOS. If we don't see an ATH by the end of October, they'll take a month in the bin.
anomaly256 is risking a 3 month ban that SPCX:US will dip below $100 USD before the end of August.
joycaptain has gone hard betting Donny won't be the sitting president by the midterms (3/11), or they take a ban until 2027.
FameLuck called for 3 consecutive green days (xjo) or 2 week ban. Looks like they get to join kangaroute after all.
ayrexxxx bet CBE to hit 32c by end of week or 1 week ban. Nicely done.
Sea-Anxiety6491 made a bullish bet, XJO to 10,000 by Feb 28. If not, it'll be 1 year for you.
TICK TOCK
Helmofgondor came through with their donation.
Sharp_Pride7092 owes us a $50 donation to Shenton Park dogs shelter for being wrong.
BANS
u/Davidina101 called their SRL $20 bet a loss accepting early banning. Not a few days later, their ban bet conditions were met, so they reached out across the void to ask for some good old fashioned public humiliation.
u/ToneDistinct5253 will be spending a month in the hole for their bet
TL;DR
Δεν έχω σκεφτεί τίποτα και μου έχουν τελειώσει οι ιδέες!
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r/ASX_Bets • u/Choochy89 • 1d ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/Newworldimpartiality • 1d ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/Ok-Customer8558 • 1d ago
My Thesis:
If you were a private equity investor who bought into this at a $90m valuation with this operational setup and this pipeline, you’d be feeling very good about your position right now.
The operational reality right now is genuinely strong:
• Both definitive agreements signed — no partner risk
• Manufacturing pathway locked in — no supply risk
• Patient waitlist already building on Mavrox — no cold start
• Phase 2 data imminent — binary event coming
Early Oct availability via Marox/Shed which marks a significant milestone in Commercialisation with revenue confirmation to follow in Dec qrtly.
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r/ASX_Bets • u/wazziaussie • 2d ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/KwbFIRE • 2d ago
Any stock pickers online want to give thoughts on this stock. It seems like it’s primed for massive growth due to regulatory and economic tailwinds but just seems to be spiraling downwards in the last 12 months. Seems most of the broker reports out there are saying it’s a buy.
Any thoughts from those smarter than myself out there?
r/ASX_Bets • u/Vain64 • 3d ago
Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth "Rolling_In_The_Dip" the Unwise?
I thought not. It’s not a story Sky News would tell you.
It’s an ASX legend.
Darth “Rolling_In_The_Dip” was a Dark Lord of the Reddit, so powerful and so unwise he could use the Sky News DD to influence the BAP market and make "millions".
He had such a knowledge of the dark side that he could even keep the stocks he cared about from dying.
The dark side of the market is a pathway to many abilities some would consider... unprofitable.
He could find stocks at their 52-week lows and, through the power of the dip, somehow they would all rebound.
He became so powerful... the only thing he was afraid of was losing his integrity, which eventually, of course, he did.
Unfortunately, his schizophrenia taught him that a 50% gain was a 3x bagger.
Ironic. He could save others from selling too early, but not himself from reality.
And as BAP continued towards mediocrity, all that remained was to watch.
After the greatest generational crash-out the subreddit had ever witnessed, u/Rolling_In_The_Dip was no more.
r/ASX_Bets • u/anmolago1 • 3d ago
It has been an interesting journey analysing OCL, with plenty of ups and downs along the way before reaching an investment decision. My view is that the company has developed a credible strategy to address a significant challenge that is already here: Microsoft 365. This threat is real and material, but management appears to have positioned the business as well as reasonably possible to respond to it. This challenge exists alongside the recent loss of the Defence contract.
Personally, I do not consider the Defence contract loss to be a major factor in my long term investment thesis. I prefer to base long term investment decisions on the overall health of the business, the strength of its moat, and its ability to create value over time. A single contract loss, while meaningful in the short term, does not fundamentally alter that assessment. For that reason, I focused much more attention on Microsoft's impact, as I believe it represents the largest strategic threat to the business over the next decade.
The Investment Strategy
It is obvious to everyone that the stock has fallen sharply and is now trading at earnings multiples it has not traded at in more than a decade. Technically, it is also respecting the June 2020 support level around $5.97. My analysis therefore focuses on the opportunity presented by current price levels and what the business could look like over the next decade.
The key questions I set out to answer were:
The answers to these questions determine whether the company can maintain the level of financial performance it has achieved historically.
The threat from Microsoft 365 is certainly not a secret. The company discusses it openly, including in its annual reports. The reason is straightforward: Microsoft represents a direct challenge to Objective's moat. In my opinion, management has been candid about this risk and has responded with a sensible strategy.
Rather than fighting Microsoft directly, Objective has chosen to integrate with it. The acquisition of Simflofy strengthened the Content Solutions segment by reinforcing governance and information management capabilities. The strategy appears to be to allow Microsoft to own the user interface while Objective retains control of data governance, compliance, records management, and the workflows required by government and regulated customers.
To me, this is the best possible response. There is little value in entering a direct confrontation with Microsoft in a market where Microsoft is likely to win. Instead, Objective is focusing on protecting what matters most: the governance, organisation, and compliance layer surrounding customer data.
This strategy will almost certainly result in slower growth for Content Solutions and potentially fewer end users over time. I modelled this effect extensively. The conclusion was clear: Content Solutions is likely to slow, which by itself gives a negative answer to one of my key questions. However, the company has two other segments that are currently growing at impressive rates:
At that point, the maths becomes relatively simple. If Content Solutions slows while the other two divisions continue growing strongly, overall ARR growth can still remain comfortably in double digits.
The critical question then becomes:
Can those growth rates be sustained?
To answer that, I undertook a market analysis of both segments. The findings were surprising.
In Planning & Building, the competition is often not another software company. In many cases, councils and government organisations still rely on spreadsheets, manual processes, and internally developed tools. Regulatory Solutions faces a similar situation. These are relatively immature markets with substantial room for digitisation.
Planning & Building, in particular, appears to have a very large addressable market. Objective has a meaningful head start and operates in a market with significant greenfield opportunities and relatively few specialised competitors. The same can be said, albeit to a lesser extent, for Regulatory Solutions.
How Does This Play Out?
To answer that question, I built a dynamic 10 year growth model.
The model incorporates:
Rather than assuming current growth rates continue forever, I tapered each segment's growth over time.
The result was three scenarios:
| Scenario | Annual Growth |
|---|---|
| Bear Case | 11% |
| Base Case | 13.50% |
| Bull Case | 15% |
For the bear case, I assumed Content Solutions slows from approximately 12% growth to around 5%. For the base and bull cases, I assumed Content Solutions slows to around 7%. To further account for the risks facing OCL, including Microsoft 365 competition, contract concentration, and execution risk, I applied an additional reduction of 2% to the bear case and 1% to both the base and bull cases. I also assumed Regulatory Solutions slows into the low teens and planning building slows to the mid 20’s.
The most important variable in the entire model was Planning & Building. As a result, my long term investment thesis hinges on the continued success of this segment. If Planning and Building can continue scaling, Objective can offset the slowdown in Content Solutions. If it cannot, the thesis weakens considerably.
Valuation
I valued the business using three different approaches:
All three approaches produced valuations that were reasonably close to one another, resulting in a base case intrinsic value of approximately $12 per share.
At current prices, the stock trades at roughly a 50% discount to that valuation. In my view, that represents a reasonable margin of safety for a business with a strong operating history, recurring revenue, high returns on capital, and management that has demonstrated strong capital allocation skills over a long period.
My position sizing will range between 25% and 75% of my intended allocation depending on the technical setup. I monitor this using a custom TradingView script.
My current plan is to accumulate shares when the market offers a 30% to 50% margin of safety relative to my base case valuation, which corresponds to a share price between approximately $6 and $8.
Final Thoughts
This is simply how I am allocating my own capital. I am not a financial adviser, nor do I claim to be. I write these posts because they provide an opportunity to challenge my assumptions and gather perspectives that I would not otherwise encounter while researching alone.
As always, it is paramount that everyone conducts their own research. I welcome disagreement and criticism because investing is far from an exact science, and some of the best insights come from people who see the risks differently.
For me, the key question is no longer whether Microsoft 365 is a threat. It clearly is.
The real question is whether Objective's strategy works.
If Content Solutions stabilises while Planning and Building and Regulatory Solutions continue to scale, today's share price could prove to be a significant overreaction. If Planning and Building fails to become a meaningful growth engine, then the bear case becomes much more likely.
That's the bet.
Are you planning to invest in OCL, or would you rather stay miles away from it? What's your take?
Now that I've wrapped up OCL, I'm on the hunt for my next company to analyse. If you have any interesting ideas, drop them in the comments and I'll take a look.
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r/ASX_Bets • u/brahmsdracula • 7d ago
If you came for loss porn, bookmark it and revisit later. This is a DD post about a uranium explorer I looked into and just bought. Powerhaus Uranium (POW) listed today at 20c and I've just thrown a bit into it. Posting this for posterity or later roasting. Time will tell.
A few things I stumbled on while looking into this. The major one being that the team behind this has had billion-dollar sales and had quick acquisitions a couple times before this in uranium.
Then factor in that Zuck , Altman and a bunch of tech bros/congolomerates are throwing shitloads at nuclear to power AI & Elon is banging on about how there's not enough energy to power it all. Meta signed a 20 year deal to take everything out of a reactor in the US, and OpenAI just leased a site in Ohio for a data centre that they said will end up needing more nuclear power than some countries. Microsoft's paying to turn Three Mile Island back on and already guaranteed they'll buy 20 years of supply. The demand will be strong and there's not enough uranium for it.
I remembered Germany shutting down its reactors down, but didn't realise that within a year of switching the last one off they were buying nuclear power off the French. And then saw in the usual US-China dick-measuring contest, China is building reactors and Trump wants the US nuclear fleet four times bigger.
Obviously all of that needs uranium, but nobody has found much of it for about a decade.
Kazakhstan does 40% of the world's supply and has basically said it's holding output flat because it's low on sulphuric acid. Cameco also had to shut its best mine for 2 weeks in July because it ran out of sulphuric acid. Prices are an 18 year high and there's no one that can fill the gap.
I've held a couple of the big uranium names and done fine, but the explorers have mostly sat there while the price went nuts. I've been waiting for a fresh one with decent people behind it and I saw a name I remembered from an old preso so dug deeper.
The team
The MD (Siobhan Lancaster) was part of the Extract Resources team that got sold to the Chinese for $2.2 billion then she floated 92 Energy in Canada which was drilling two months after it listed, hit on the fourth hole and got taken over inside 3 years. Her chairman from 92 Energy is chairman here as well, the geo who ran that discovery is on the board, and so is the guy who drilled out the Extract deposit.
So the same crew that took a uranium float from small-cap to a takeover last time is starting again from 20c ($17m market cap) with $9m in the bank. Tendies sense got tingling.
The ground
In Argentina and Milei has been good for miners, BHP and Rio have both put money in over the past year, and the government has said it wants to get back to producing and exporting uranium. The country runs three reactors and has had uranium mines before, there was a line from the government about it becoming the Saudi Arabia of Uranium. Ethics be damned.
What POW have on site right now is uranium sitting at surface and said on the first site visit they walked into a dry riverbed, dug a hole by hand and pulled out rock with yellow carnotite through it. The presentation has a photo of the Geiger counter lighting up in the dirt with it.
Underneath all that they think a Kazakh style uranium system. Kazakhstan produces about 40% of the world's uranium out of this type of deposit and the company reckons this has the same setup. They've found uranium in the sandstone where it pokes out on their ground.
Drilling kicks off soon so should be a steady drip of news through to Christmas, they've also got some ground in Canada on the same fault as three known deposits.
So yeah, team that's done it before and tech bros wanting a shitload of nuclear and uranium is my bet. IPO market been a bit weak of late too so managed to get in at raise price this morn.
tl;dr: tech bros need uranium for our robot overlords, these guys know to to find it and package it up for big sale.
Invest at own risk as am retard.
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r/ASX_Bets • u/19mils • 7d ago
S32 is at all time highs. It seems well positioned in forward facing critical metals. The announcement on its Chilean copper mine was well received today. Is everyone holding?
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