Artemis 3 June launch?

[u/Affectionate-Reason0]

I’ve seen a few things that have said it’s targeted for a launch in June, can anyone else confirm or deny it? I genuinely can’t see it launching in June

[u/LNA-Big_D]

That’s the official target from the program. Based on the status of the HLS options though, I doubt that’s when we’re going. My team is currently scrambling to be ready by then though, so we shouldn’t be the ones fingers are pointed at at least.

[u/Affectionate-Reason0 → u/LNA-Big_D]

I just feel like June is wishful thinking, I know at one point there was talk of trying to have 2 Artemis flights next year or something? I don’t see this happening until November next year probably 2028

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/Affectionate-Reason0]

Agreed. My guess is that this is a way for the agency to save face. If we’re ready for June but we’re held back by the HLS side of the house it’s a bit harder to blame us for being slow.

[u/Affectionate-Reason0 → u/LNA-Big_D]

Yeah, I know things are going great for putting the Artemis together. But it comes down to blue origin and HLS, which is why I say late 2027 probably 2028

[u/Pashto96 → u/Affectionate-Reason0]

HLS is largely just a Starship with a docking port. Blue is definitely the long stick here

[u/Affectionate-Reason0 → u/Pashto96]

Where is blue at with the new Glenn rocket? They’ll need that to take it into orbit I assume, and I know they’re aiming for end of the year to launch but are they close?

[u/Pashto96 → u/Affectionate-Reason0]

They'd definitely need at least one flight (preferably more) to prove that they've resolved the issues with both stages. I haven't heard anything beyond EOY. The best that we can do is watch progress on the launch pad. New Glenn should be ready to fly by the time it's done

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/Pashto96]

Starship still has to prove orbital capability, build the proper HLS version, and demonstrate in space refueling. They also have a dwell time of 48 hours currently. While they may look like the short(er) stick for Artemis III, it’s a bit more complicated than that.

[u/Pashto96 → u/LNA-Big_D]

V3 Starship has already proven everything it needs to go orbital. Artemis 3's "HLS" is just a stock V3 Starship with a docking port. It doesn't need to refuel or do anything special for A3. It needs to get to orbit and dock with Orion. Even if they weren't to go orbital until next year, they'd be in a better position. 

Blue doesn't have a functional launch pad, had their first stage explode during a static fire, had their second stage fail on their last launch, and has to build a much higher fidelity lander including light support systems for Artemis 3. Blue is the long stick by far and it's not close. 

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/Pashto96]

For how they spec’d Artemis III, yes starship is very close. But for IV, the actual moon mission, they are very far. The Artemis III “HLS” starship is also pretty far off from the real deal. I’m talking bigger picture than just AIII at this point though. I think they’re closer in readiness than one would think (for the actual moon landing, not Artemis III)

Blue’s lander didn’t get destroyed in the explosion, they could always find a new ride for it. And with how fast their pad went up as fresh construction I wouldn’t be surprised if they get things back on track pretty quick. Don’t get me wrong though, they’ve got a lot of work to do but also don’t write them off.

[u/GalacticEmergency → u/LNA-Big_D]

So Artemis III can't fly before they are ready for Artemis IV?

I think I am missing something in that rationale.

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/GalacticEmergency]

Oh, no that’s not what I meant. I’m just thinking down the line a bit. Especially since the current admin says we should be launching once a year. In theory Artemis IV is right behind Artemis III so there’s still a huge amount to be done in a small amount of time.

[u/GalacticEmergency → u/LNA-Big_D]

Could you provide more info on the in space refueling in the Artemis III mission?

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/GalacticEmergency]

Sure. Neither commercial company is capable of making its payload to the moon in one go like SLS is. Both will require a some sort of refueling effort in space to be able to complete the mission.

The reason I have singled out starship here is because of the scale of their operation: it’s been reported that it could take 15-20 starship launches for starship to make one moon trip. The hls starship plus the rest acting as fuel depots scattered down the path so that the HLS is capable of getting to the moon. This is no small feat and in space fuel transfer between two vehicles has yet to be seen.

[u/GalacticEmergency → u/GalacticEmergency]

I asked about the refueling for the Artemis III mission, which is the one being discussed here.

I assume we agree that Artemis III is not going to the moon.

[u/redstercoolpanda → u/LNA-Big_D]

For Artemis 3 to launch in June it only has to go to orbit though.

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/redstercoolpanda]

Yes, but they haven’t done that yet. I believe starship 14 will be the first starship to get to LEO. I think it will be fine but it has yet to be seen.

[u/EF1Megawedge → u/LNA-Big_D]

What team do you work on? If you don’t mind saying. Just find this stuff cool

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/EF1Megawedge]

I’m one of the cryogenics engineers supporting launch operations. I’ve been around since Artemis I, so while I’m not super high level I’ve seen a thing or two when it comes to working in this program.

[u/ProBatteryLicker → u/LNA-Big_D]

We'd go faster if ya'll would stop hogging all the 2P10 sets to work on ya'lls auto sequences /s

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/ProBatteryLicker]

Just you wait. We’re about to have soooo many new sequences and test scripts. They really should just give us dedicated sets (preferably back in FR3)

[u/ProBatteryLicker → u/LNA-Big_D]

T.T nooooo, not like Artemis 2 when ya'll had ya name plates in FR3!!!

[u/NeitherRun2699 → u/LNA-Big_D]

How long can SLS be stacked before it's forced to launch, with or without HLS?

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/NeitherRun2699]

My understanding is that the main concern here is the boosters. They’re good for a year + a waiver potentially. Artemis I was stacked for almost 2 years but I don’t think they’re going to play that game with people on board for this one.

[u/NeitherRun2699 → u/LNA-Big_D]

What do you think is the chance of de-stacking if Elon and Jeff don't deliver on time?

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/NeitherRun2699]

Low. I don’t think the timer stops if we destack, so that doesn’t buy us anything. Unless you mean destack to replace the boosters, in which case I wouldn’t rule it out.

[u/NeitherRun2699 → u/LNA-Big_D]

If the boosters were to be replaced, would that push the launch date out by at least a year? I really want to think that SLS will fly again next year, but with how far behind HLS is, I don’t expect another U.S. lunar landing until next decade.

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/NeitherRun2699]

I don’t think it will take that long to swap out. But I also don’t really know or have a frame of reference for it.

I also think we’ll get there before the next decade but time will tell. I’ve heard rumors of some stuff in regards to HLS but I’d rather not comment on those until I know more.

[u/Bi_KerbonautYT → u/NeitherRun2699]

Misread that as "chances of destacking Elon and Jeff"

[u/Keva9 → u/LNA-Big_D]

Booster stack time calcs are based on measurements taken prior to stack and bulk temperatures of the propellant. Projections are made at one year for possible stack extensions. In the unlikely event they did destack, there would be another opportunity for measurements.

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/Keva9]

Oh that’s interesting. I had no idea. They treat it like it’s a set timeline in my office, but then again I don’t really work with the booster folks. Thanks for the info!

[u/Keva9 → u/LNA-Big_D]

It is basically a set timeline, but with approvals and evaluations, technically there is the possibility for stack extension past the one year similar to Artemis I. IDK how far they would let it go out, though, based on other considerations. Just my opinion.

[u/OkAbrocoma695 → u/LNA-Big_D]

They get up to 2 years now it seems. 0/2 have launched within a year of the booster stack clock starting

[u/ItsPricelessTrippleP → u/LNA-Big_D]

Would they do another lunar flyby with these astronauts? Either way i think they wanna fly it again wither or not the landers are ready.

[u/LNA-Big_D → u/ItsPricelessTrippleP]

For Artemis III? Doubtful. The plan is to conserve the last ICPS for Artemis IV, so that limits III to LEO.

[u/kchuvala]

Coordinating launches by NASA, SpaceX, and Blue Origin means a lot of things need to go according to plan without any unforseen delays or complications.

So is June 2027 possible? Yes.

Is it likely? I'd say no.

But as another respondent says, that is our work-to target, and we're working like crazy to make sure it remains possible.

My team works on the "IT" computing devices for the mission - tablets, iPhones, etc. (not avionics or flight control systems.) We are packing a lot of new stuff into this schedule, based largely on feedback from the Artemis II crew.

Exciting times!

[u/kchuvala → u/[deleted]]

Oh, man, are you preaching to the choir. ;)

However, we work to requirements. So Windows, Linux, and iOS.

One out of 3 ain't bad, right?

[u/Disastrous_Run_5968 → u/kchuvala]

you work for Blue Origin, NASA, or SpaceX?

[u/kchuvala → u/Disastrous_Run_5968]

A NASA contractor. I've worked at JSC since 1999.

[u/Disastrous_Run_5968 → u/kchuvala]

that's awesome. Keep going!

[u/literalsupport]

SpaceX won’t be ready.
Neither will Blue Origin.

[u/RocketVerse → u/literalsupport]

Regarding SpaceX, the requirements are pretty easy. It’s a standard starship with a docking port. Basically the same thing that they’re launching in a few weeks to orbit. Now Blue Origin, yeah who knows, but they’ll probably have the actual capsule ready by then, so as long as they’re not grounded, I think there is a decent chance.

Of course, that’s the deciding factor, they’re the core of the mission. I give it a 20% chance it launches in June, but 50-60 that it works later that year.

[u/peaches4leon → u/RocketVerse]

Starship doesn’t even have a standalone RCS yet, or a backup. Its a minimally integrated network of relief valves from the main tanks to a few directional ports. Fed by boil-off pressure and the COPVs right behind them. Unless they’ve been making changes in the background (for future SNs), the redundancy to cooperate with Orion just isn’t there yet.

I doubt Orion is going to be totally responsible for attitude control while attached to a vehicle many times its size/mass.

[u/Remarkable_Yak_1606 → u/literalsupport]

What facts do you have to support this?

[u/OkAbrocoma695]

The only thing that will be ready by June is the Artemis rocket itself (no guarantee here but thats the current schedule). No one actually thinks blue or spacex will be ready by then.

[u/Decronym]

Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:

Fewer Letters	More Letters
COPV	Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel
DMLS	Selective Laser Melting additive manufacture, also Direct Metal Laser Sintering
ICPS	Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage
JSC	Johnson Space Center, Houston
LEO	Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)
	Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)
RCS	Reaction Control System
SLS	Space Launch System heavy-lift
	Selective Laser Sintering, contrast DMLS
SN	(Raptor/Starship) Serial Number

Jargon	Definition
Raptor	Methane-fueled rocket engine under development by SpaceX
cryogenic	Very low temperature fluid; materials that would be gaseous at room temperature/pressure
	(In re: rocket fuel) Often synonymous with hydrolox
hydrolox	Portmanteau: liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen mixture

Decronym is now also available on Lemmy! Requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.

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^{8 acronyms in this thread; the most compressed thread commented on today has 12 acronyms.
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[u/Beginning-Use7258]

I hope it would be june 2027, just have to hope politics and systems don’t get in the way 

[u/flyingrichie]

They say death and taxes are the only things you can always count on, but I add a third. Space flight timelines 

[u/flyingrichie → u/[deleted]]

Well that's a non sequitur