r/AskCaucasus • u/TelephoneCreative • 2d ago
Politics Separatism problem
Its obvious that a lot of so called "republics" folk wanna part ways with Russia
Is it possible to achive with minimal bloodshed? How to prevent militaristic junta states? What comes to regions where its not possible to separate two ethnic groups into their own because how mixed up they are?
And how to prevent forming of nazists or radical islamic groups
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u/Petrezok Adygea 1d ago
Recent rise of islamism has ruined north eastern Caucasus for the foreseeable future true. That being said even without Russia nor islamism there will be wars in Caucasus. They are necessary before the region is restablisized.
Maybe with some external power this situation can be avoided but no such power is interested in Caucasus beyond conquest.
Regardless indepence will be better for Caucasus in the long run albeit there will be incoming tragedy before the light starts to shine.
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u/ad-dagistani Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus 2d ago
We try to do whatever Switzerland or Belgium did. Or perhaps be like Indonesia or the Philippines after the long occupation for hundreds of years
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u/Chex33 2d ago
If North Caucasus got it's independence it'll be Iran 2.0. Can you imagine what kind of country the likes of Ramzan Kadyrov would have?
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u/melle-bell Ichkeria 1d ago
Are some of you here feigning total ignorance and acting as if Putin/Russia isn't the reason that the Kadyrovs came into power and stayed there? The North Caucasus has had stable governments before (especially Chechnya under the democratic Mehk-Khel). It's not impossible for them to be stable regions, as long as Russia and other surrounding powers don't try to get involved by funding extremist groups.
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u/Careless-Skin6827 1d ago edited 1d ago
It is not impossible, but acting like there were/are/ would be no grassroots groups which would want Islamic caliphate is pretty out of touch. If those groups seize power or even just gain significant influence, it would damage North Caucasus quite significantly internationally
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u/MinutePreparation754 Armenia 2d ago
This is the sad truth. But I want to believe that maybe things will be different when Russia actually collapses one day. I know that many Chechens are not fond of Kadyrov, it's just they can't even openly criticise him, because there is a risk of being kidnapped/threatened/publicly shamed and even killed.
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u/Sussex99 Georgia 1d ago
If North Caucasus got it's independence it'll be Iran 2.0. Can you imagine what kind of country the likes of Ramzan Kadyrov would have?
This can only happen in Dagestan and Chechnya. Ingushetia will find itself under the protection of Georgia, as a confederation or autonomy, the same will happen to North Ossetia. The future of the Circassian-Turkic republics looks very vague.
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u/Careless-Skin6827 1d ago
Georgia has no claims on Ingushetia or any Ingush lands, Ingushetia will have its own state
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u/S1075 2d ago
The only way it happens without blood is like it did in 1991 with Russia itself disintegrating. There is no way to prevent the rise of ethnic infighting or extremist groups. If the west sinks a bunch of money into the project, then maybe. If there is no monetary support, then its likely a worst-case scenario. However, whatever corruption exists there now will likely take a stranglehold on whatever funding is coming in and you're left with a situation that's likely no better.