Morning all. Today’s edition covers a rapidly widening housing downturn, Labor and One Nation losing ground in national polling, a $600 million Pacific anti-drug initiative, warnings against excessive reliance on carbon credits, and an opportunity to rebuild Australia’s critical-minerals relationship with South Korea.

🏠 1. Fourth interest-rate rise looms as analysts predict house prices could fall 10%

Guardian Australia

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Property prices are now falling in more than 90% of Australian suburbs, according to Cotality, as higher interest rates, weak economic growth and changes to property-investment taxation weigh on demand.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects national prices to fall about 10% from their peak. Commonwealth Bank forecasts declines of 12–13% in Sydney and Melbourne and approximately 8% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

Economists nevertheless believe persistent inflation may force the Reserve Bank to raise rates again. The uncomfortable combination is falling asset values, weak economic growth and mortgage repayments that may still increase.

🗳️ 2. One Nation slips as Albanese records his lowest approval as prime minister

Guardian Australia

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Labor and the Coalition are tied on primary votes of 26% in the latest Guardian Essential poll.

Labor has fallen five points since July, while the Coalition has risen four. One Nation remains extraordinarily competitive on 23%, although that is five points below its May peak despite its victory in the Secret Harbour by-election.

Anthony Albanese’s approval has fallen to 35%, with 56% disapproving, while 59% of respondents believe Australia is heading in the wrong direction. The poll has a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.

🚤 3. Australia commits $600 million to tackling Pacific drug trafficking

ABC News

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The federal government will invest $600 million over several years in a new Pacific program targeting increasingly sophisticated cocaine and methamphetamine smuggling.

The Waqa Moana initiative will expand aerial and maritime surveillance, improve regional police coordination and strengthen cooperation between the Australian Federal Police and authorities in South and Central America.

More than 17 tonnes of cocaine and methamphetamine have been seized in Australia this year, compared with 5.5 tonnes during all of 2025. Authorities warn the trade is contributing to corruption, violence and serious public-health problems in Pacific communities while being driven partly by Australia’s lucrative illicit-drug market.

🌱 4. Climate authority warns Australia cannot rely too heavily on carbon credits

The Australian

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The Climate Change Authority has found Australia’s carbon-credit scheme remains robust but should increasingly be used to fill gaps rather than substitute for reducing emissions at their source.

It recommends stronger Safeguard Mechanism settings, clean-technology standards and other policies that directly reduce industrial emissions.

Reaching net zero at the lowest cost may require carbon-sequestration projects across as much as 18 million hectares—around 4% of Australia’s agricultural land. Such projects could generate approximately $9 billion annually for landholders by 2050, but would also intensify debate over food production, foreign ownership and competing uses of rural land.

⛏️ 5. Critical minerals could rebuild Australia’s trade relationship with South Korea

Australian Financial Review

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Former resources minister Martin Ferguson argues Australia has a generational opportunity to become South Korea’s leading strategic partner for critical minerals.

South Korean manufacturers need secure supplies for batteries, advanced manufacturing and the energy transition. Australia has substantial mineral resources and established trading links, but previous regulatory interventions have reportedly left some major Korean investors wary.

The opportunity is therefore not simply to export raw minerals. Australia would need predictable investment rules and commercially competitive processing projects if it wants to attract Korean capital and retain more value onshore.

💬 Today’s discussion

The housing story may be the most consequential for Australian households.

A 10% national decline would be historically significant, but prices would still remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels. Another rate rise, meanwhile, would immediately increase repayments for indebted households and place further pressure on construction and consumer spending.

Is a substantial housing correction the unavoidable price of controlling inflation—or has policy created the worst combination of falling property values, expensive mortgages and too little new housing?

Woah ?!

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/02/property-house-prices-drop-sydney-melbourne-brisbane-perth-adelaide-interest-rates

Property prices are falling in more than 90% of Australian suburbs, with economists forecasting a national decline of approximately 10% from the market peak.

Commonwealth Bank expects prices to fall 12–13% in Sydney and Melbourne and around 8% in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Persistent inflation may nevertheless force the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-02/australia-to-fund-scheme-to-tackle-pacific-drug-smuggling/107104900

Australia will spend $600 million over several years on expanded Pacific surveillance, regional police cooperation and efforts to intercept drug-smuggling vessels and so-called narco-submarines.

More than 17 tonnes of cocaine and methamphetamine have been seized in Australia this year, compared with 5.5 tonnes during 2025. Authorities say Australian demand is helping drive a trade that is damaging Pacific communities.