They can’t hide the truth for long, Everything else is just noise!

Circled the bottom of each cycle where the change of character (CHoCH) actually printed, the point structure flipped before price ever confirmed it on the headlines.

2013 to 2015, down roughly 87%, then up over 12,000% into the next cycle.

2017 to 2018, down roughly 84%, then up over 2,100%.

2021 to 2022, down roughly 78%, then up over 700%.

This cycle, down roughly 54% into the correction, and the same structural tell just printed again, same shape, same spot on the curve, right where the last three did.

Each drawdown's been shallower than the one before it, and each subsequent run's been smaller in percentage terms too, which tracks, bigger market cap means the multiples compress even while the absolute moves stay historic. Neither trend is new information if youve actually looked at this before, but seeing all four side by side like this is a different thing than knowing it abstractly.

Doesnt guarantee this one plays out identically, nothing here ever has thats guaranteed. But four for four on the same structural tell showing up at the same point in the cycle is not nothing.

I’ve been digging into Bitty for a little while now and honestly the deeper I go the more interesting the whole thing gets. Sometime in 2025 jack, former ceo of x, also posted about bitty.

I researched more and more. There’s also the history of Bitty being associated with the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, including its appearance around Bitcoin.org.

Does anyone know more about it?

Anyone can help? I know to myself that I deposit 0.00335375 on my wallet and I received email regarding to it. Move forward.. I'm not able to access my wallet or recover the fund because I forgot my wallet. When I try to search all transaction on October 12 2017 with that amount there is no showing or is it remove or I didn't search correctly. Advice please.

https://mempool.space/tx/19f6d3908a7d36409af6b4eaca375c03bc3d0d9bebb2a86d681016817cdea7df

Been waiting 30+ hours for a transaction to clear and all the "help" I've been getting is people who are quick to point out all that I've done wrong.

If I can make so many mistakes then just imagine the average person trying to use bitcoin for anything other than a liquidity sink.

So the fee I "offered" was too small? Then let me bump up the fucking fee?

Now I just got €500 stuck in limbo like an uneducated asshole. Future of finance eh?

Bitcoin might be setting for a rally if US govt. is going as per the Ray Dalio's article:

• The Problem: The U.S. government is currently spending $7.5 trillion annually while only generating $5.5 trillion in revenue, resulting in a massive $2 trillion deficit and a total debt of $32 trillion.
• The Consequences: With annual interest payments approaching $1 trillion, the U.S. is entering the late stages of a "Big Debt Cycle". To manage these rising costs and a lack of demand for government bonds, the central bank will likely be forced to print more money, which will devalue the U.S. dollar.
• The Solution: To protect purchasing power against a depreciating dollar, the article highlights Ray Dalio's advice to diversify wealth into scarce, hard assets. Assets that are not government liabilities—specifically gold and Bitcoin—serve as financial lifeboats because they cannot be printed on demand.

I’ve been trying to understand the potential economic impact of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, particularly in relation to traditional banks, financial institutions, and government-issued currencies.

If cryptocurrency adoption continues to grow, could it eventually pose a serious threat to the traditional financial system? For example, could widespread use of Bitcoin reduce reliance on banks or weaken the role of official currencies? Or is Bitcoin still too volatile, limited in its practical use, and too small relative to the overall financial system to pose a genuine systemic threat?

I've been working on a research project involving historical Bitcoin-era cryptographic environments and the Debian OpenSSL RNG vulnerability (CVE-2008-0166).

I've built a controlled, reproducible environment that allows me to study key generation under specific historical conditions. I'm now interested in determining whether the work has practical applicability to real, legitimately owned early Bitcoin wallets where the private key has been lost.

I'm looking for people who:

• Have an old Bitcoin wallet/address they genuinely own but can no longer access.
• Have information about when and how the wallet/key was originally generated, particularly early Bitcoin/Linux environments.
• Can provide reasonable evidence of ownership or provenance.
• Are willing to explicitly authorize a recovery feasibility assessment.

This is not a claim that I can recover arbitrary Bitcoin wallets. The technique I'm researching applies only to narrowly defined historical conditions, and many wallets will almost certainly not qualify.

I will not search random dormant addresses or wallets belonging to other people. I am only interested in owner-authorized cases.

For anyone potentially qualifying, the process would begin with a non-sensitive feasibility discussion about the historical environment. I would not need you to publicly post private information, seed phrases, passwords, wallet files, or anything else that could compromise your funds.

If a case appears technically suitable, we would establish:

1. Proof of ownership/provenance
Evidence reasonably demonstrating that the wallet is actually yours.

2. Explicit authorization
No recovery attempt against a real wallet without permission from its owner.

3. Scope and confidentiality
Exactly what is being evaluated and what information remains confidential.

4. Compensation agreed in advance
Any assessment or success fee would be established before recovery work begins. No surprise fees.

5. Noncustodial recovery
My intention is not to hold, manage, or take custody of client Bitcoin. If recovery succeeds, the goal would be for the verified owner to ultimately move their assets into a new secure wallet they control.

For a substantial-value recovery, I would stop before final credential handoff or movement of assets so that an appropriate written agreement/payment and handoff procedure can be established. I will not improvise custody or transfer arrangements involving someone else's Bitcoin.

I'm also interested in hearing from security researchers familiar with historical OpenSSL/Bitcoin environments who may be interested in independent technical validation.

If you believe you have a legitimate qualifying wallet, DM me rather than posting sensitive wallet information publicly.

I'm happy to explain the general scope of the research publicly, but I won't disclose implementation details that would enable unauthorized use.

Edit:

Interested in a preliminary evaluation?

I've created a short screening questionnaire for owners who believe their historical wallet may qualify:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfoqCVXwTtvJFjJ6BudGOgeVIIwu89pZOdUm5Tq5O1e3BhTLw/viewform?usp=sharing&ouid=107824261002452805931

The form does not request private keys, seed phrases, passwords, wallet files, or other authentication credentials. Please do not provide any of those materials.

You can also DM me first if you'd prefer to discuss the general circumstances before completing the questionnaire.

I saw this thread earlier. And i was like.. Damn i don't understand it either. So i just tried to make AI make it a little easier to understand, and i got it. I don't mean to produce AI slop, i just wanted to make this concept a little-bit easier to understand:

1. How they get cash to buy Bitcoin

• At-The-Market (ATM) offerings: The company creates and sells brand-new shares of its own stock directly onto the open stock market to raise cash.
• Convertible bonds: They borrow money from institutional investors by issuing low-interest debt that can later be converted into shares.

2. Why they don't wait for price dips The company treats itself as a pipeline rather than a day trader. As soon as the cash from selling shares or bonds hits their bank account, they spend it immediately on Bitcoin. They do not hold cash on the sidelines hoping the price drops from $78,000 to $59,000, because holding uninvested cash carries opportunity cost and goes against their mandate to accumulate Bitcoin as quickly as capital arrives.

3. The "Premium" and why high prices don't matter Investors often value the company's stock higher than the actual market value of the Bitcoin it holds (known as trading at a Net Asset Value (NAV) premium).

• The Math: Suppose 1 share represents $100 worth of Bitcoin, but because of high demand, the stock trades in the market for $150.
• The Trade: The company issues 1 new share, collects $150 in cash, and immediately buys $150 worth of Bitcoin.
• The Result: Even though new shares were created (dilution), more Bitcoin was added per share than existed before.

The Core Takeaway Their primary goal is not getting the cheapest purchase price on any given day. Their goal is accretion—increasing the total amount of Bitcoin backing each individual share of stock over time.

It it weren't for all the scams and copycats along with government corruption, we would be in a vastly different place.

No contemporary currency can compete. The powers that be are well aware of this.

Peach's announcement yesterday got me thinking about something bigger than Peach itself.

They say they were licensed in 2022 and passed independent audits in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Now the regulator wants to reconsider the compliance arrangement they had been operating under.

Peach has already reacted by temporarily changing its escrow model.

What interests me is the architectural question:

If a P2P marketplace still has one identifiable organization that regulators can pressure, how decentralized is it really?

I compared this with protocol-based approaches using Nostr + Lightning, including Mostro. Not because Mostro magically eliminates trust or regulation — it doesn't — but because the dependencies are different and potentially replaceable.

That's the distinction I think matters.

Full article:
https://davidebtc186.substack.com/p/peach-bitcoin-just-hit-a-regulatory

Curious what people here think: should P2P Bitcoin marketplaces ultimately be companies, or protocols anyone can coordinate?

Yesterday was my last day of summer vacation.

I'm an elementary school teacher. I spend my days shaping young minds, mediating pencil disputes, and explaining why we don't lick the glue sticks. But I also love working with my hands. Being outdoors. Feeling the sun on my skin and the satisfaction of a job done well.

So when I received a text about cleaning someone’s gutters, I said yes. This is one of my side gigs.

Not because I wanted to. It was my last day of freedom before the school year swallowed me whole. I could have sat on my couch, scrolled charts and social media, and thought about whether Bitcoin would hit $80k by the end of August.

But instead, I grabbed my ladder, my gloves, and some leaf bags.

The job took me 40 minutes from arrival to departure and I made $125. I highly suggest looking into this if you need a side gig. It should also be noted I drive a 2024 Corolla for cost efficiency purposes and it fits my foldable step ladder inside.

After receiving payment, I opened my Strike app. I bought sats. Not a life-changing amount—but that wasn't the point.

The point was this: I didn't sit around waiting for my portfolio to grow on its own. I went out, created value with my own two hands, and turned that value into more sats.

That's the first lesson. You can't HODL your way to financial freedom if you're not also building, earning, and stacking from the real world. The charts don't care about your hopes. But your hands? They can build something. They can earn something. They can turn a random Tuesday into being one step closer to financial freedom.

Stop refreshing the portfolio. Start creating value. The market will do its thing. You do yours.

When I got home, I didn't open my portfolio.

I grabbed my longboard. My kids—eyes wide and excited as they knew what this meant and climbed on. We rode down the street. I pushed. They sat on it like a canoe. They even built up the courage to bomb the hill on their own.

That was the second lesson and easily the one that matters more.

You can stare at green candles and red candles all day. But those candles don't hug you. They don't laugh when you almost crash into the curb. They don't remember the way you held them close riding on the board with them.

Bitcoin is a tool. A decentralized, freedom-enabling tool. But it is not life. Life is the moment you push your kids down the street and hear them laughing. Life is the sweat on your brow after a job well done. Life is the quiet satisfaction of knowing you traded your time for a tiny piece of the future—and then came home to live in the present.

Bitcoin isn't just about digital gold or lambos or escape from fiat.

It's about freedom.

The freedom to work a job you love at some point, not one you tolerate. The freedom to take a random gutter cleaning gig and turn it into something meaningful. The freedom to push your kids on a longboard without checking if BTC dropped 2% in the last hour.

So yes. Stack sats. HODL. Stay humble. All of that.

But also—

Be present.

With yourself.

With friends and family.

Build multiple streams of income.

Touch grass.

Bitcoin will take care of the rest.

My sister in law keeps telling me her high yield savings account is all she needs and that bitcoin is just gambling. She is not dumb at all, she is actually pretty sharp with money, but every time I try to bring up why I have been stacking since 2017 the conversation dies fast. I get why it sounds sketchy from the outside. The volatility alone is enough to make anyone nope out of the conversation before it even starts.

The thing is I do not want to come across like I am recruiting her into something or hyping her up with price targets. That never works and honestly feels gross. But I also genuinely think having even a small position matters long term and I want her to get there on her own terms.

Has anyone had a real breakthrough moment explaining bitcoin to a skeptical but financially literate person? Not someone clueless, but someone who has read enough to have formed an opinion against it. What actually landed for them? Was it the fixed supply thing, was it the banking angle, was it just watching price long enough? Or does it just never work until someone is ready on their own and you are wasting your breath trying?

BTC ran from around $62k to over $81k in about two weeks. Feels like the bull run is officially back, right? Well, kind of. Let me explain…

Most of this wasn't fresh money flooding in. It was a short squeeze. 

Basically, a ton of traders were betting against BTC, but then prices started moving up and they got forced out of their positions. That forced buying pushed the price up even more. 

On top of that, some genuinely real stuff is happening too. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in billions of dollars in August, their best month of the year. 

Stablecoin supply hit record highs and barely budged during the whole downturn, which usually means there's real dry powder sitting on the sidelines waiting to deploy. 

And Trump has been publicly pushing Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, the bill that would finally give crypto clear regulatory rules in the US, which got a lot of people excited.

But how much of this is real vs hype?

The market basically priced in the CLARITY Act passing like it was a done deal. Then betting odds on it actually passing collapsed from over 80% to under 20% in a matter of weeks, because the Senate still can't agree on an ethics provision. 

If it dies in the September 15 vote, a real chunk of the foundation under this rally just disappears.

Also worth knowing that this isn't a broad rally. Bitcoin dominance is still sitting near 60%, and the "altcoin season index" is deep in Bitcoin-season territory. 

A genuinely healthy bull market usually sees money spread out into altcoins as confidence builds across the board. That's not really happening yet, it's a narrow move concentrated in BTC and a handful of large caps. 

And the new Fed chair just went hawkish at Jackson Hole, which spooked the market and knocked BTC back under $78k almost immediately.

So to put it simply, it's a combination of real institutional demand plus genuinely lower leverage than past rallies, stacked on top of a political coin flip and a Fed that isn't fully on board. It’s not pure hype, but not a guaranteed continuation either.

The DeFi side of things…

If you're in LPs on a volatile pair, this choppy up-down-up action is close to the worst case for impermanent loss. You're probably earning less than if you'd just held the tokens, fees or no fees. 

Lending is fine until it isn't. A bunch of fresh leveraged longs piled in during the squeeze, so a flopped CLARITY vote or a hawkish Fed could trigger a fast cascading wave of liquidations like we saw when TVL got cut in half earlier this year. 

And yield farming TVL is genuinely recovering after being slashed from $154B to $70B, but hacks don't care what BTC is doing. DeFi's already lost close to a billion dollars to exploit this year regardless of price.

Basically, don't confuse "price went up" with "risk went down." Keep an eye on September 15, that's the CLARITY Act vote and probably the next real catalyst either way.

None of this is financial advice. Just an attempt to break down what’s happening in the market for the average person. 

The first pause after roughly $3 billion of ETF inflows got treated like a warning signal, but bitcoin barely moved while oil jumped and stocks sold off after the US strikes on Iran. That price action matters more to me than one day of red flows. A market that needs nonstop ETF buying to stay up is fragile. A market that absorbs a pause, geopolitical risk and higher oil without falling apart may be building a stronger base than the headlines suggest. The missing piece is whether this holds for another week or two, not whether one flow chart looks ugly today. The bigger shift is that ETF flows are now being watched like a daily vote on bitcoin's future. That gives short-term traders a new scoreboard, but it also makes people forget that pension allocations and long-term holders do not move on a 24-hour news cycle.

how can one learn how to bitcoin?
with this day and age working one job isn’t enough.