Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

 It has been easy to track the center of Edouard this morning, 
 showing up as a well-defined core of shallow convection on
 shortwave infrared satellite imagery and radar reflectivity
 from Lake Charles, Louisiana (KLCH). While the final fixes
 from the prior Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission did
 not show an additional pressure drop, their remarks did note
 a nascent low-level eyewall was trying to form, which can
 also be seen from land-based radar. This structure could
 prove important for Edouard's near-term intensification
 prospects as deep convection begins to reform close to the
 storm center. For now, the initial intensity remains 35 kt
 this advisory, in agreement with radial velocity data from
 KLCH and the 06 UTC TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate. Another
 Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to
 investigate Edouard again this morning. 

 The intensity forecast today is problematic. Edouard has
 managed to develop a small core that could be prone to rapid
 changes in intensity. In addition, environmental conditions
 are quite favorable for intensification while Edouard remains
 over water, with 31 C sea-surface temperatures, and low
 vertical wind shear diagnosed at 4 kt by UW-CIMSS. The raw
 output from the hurricane-regional models responds to these
 factors by showing substantial intensification today, with
 both HMON and HAFS-A making Edouard a hurricane before
 landfall. HAFS-B and HWRF show a somewhat more tempered rate
 of intensification. Given Edouard's current structure, a rapid
 increase in intensity before landfall is still anticipated,
 and the latest NHC forecast shows a 55 kt intensity near
 landfall, which is close to the raw model HAFS-B output at
 that time. Of note, this is well above the interpolated
 intensity guidance which can struggle to depict rapid short-
 term intensity changes in these cases close to landfall.
 After landfall, Edouard should quickly weaken, likely
 becoming post-tropical in 36 h and dissipating by 48 h. 

 Edouard continues to move off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt.
 A prominent low- to mid-level ridge centered over the south-
 eastern United States should continue to steer the tropical
 cyclone to the west-northwest then turning more northwest after
 24 h as the storm rounds the ridge. On this track, Edouard
 should make landfall later today near the Louisiana/Texas
 border, and then push inland over eastern Texas by tonight.
 The track guidance remains in good agreement, though with just
 a slight westward shift, and the NHC track forecast is just a
 touch west of the previous advisory, closest to the HFIP
 Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

 Key Messages:

 1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach
    hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf 
    Coast later today. Tropical Storm conditions are expected
    along the northwest Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions
    possible from High Island to Cameron.

 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas
    to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak
    values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along
    the immediate coast within the warning area.

 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast
    through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana
    today and tomorrow as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland.
    Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in
    urban areas. River flooding may also be possible.


 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  01/0900Z 29.0N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 29.7N  93.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...ON THE COAST
  24H  02/0600Z 30.6N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  02/1800Z 31.7N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 $$
 Forecaster Papin

The system is likely to miss Hawaii, but the Islands should keep watching in case that changes.

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion

NHC calls for additional strengthening but hopefully not hurricane strength

Tropical Cyclones require warm waters to sustain their strength.

Typically the threshold for tropical development is approximately 80°F or 26°C.

As tropical cyclones travel northward over cooler waters, they lose their strength.

The surface temperature of the waters around SoCal is only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Depression Five, located over the northern Gulf of America.

1. Near Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A surface trough of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Storm 
Dolly) is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and 
over portions of Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern 
Bahamas. Significant development of this system is no longer 
expected while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, the system could bring locally 
heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of these areas during the 
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO 
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO 
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.


Forecaster Reinhart

000

WTNT35 KNHC 311455

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026

1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND

SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.8N 91.0W

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf

Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish

Line in Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the

next 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near

latitude 27.8 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving

toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the

forecast track, the center of the system is predicted reach the

northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the

system is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO

header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast

within the warning area on Tuesday, making outside preparations

difficult or dangerous.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the

relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary

greatly over short distances. For information specific to your

area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak

Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: PTC Five is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6

inches with maximum totals of 9 inches for parts of the Upper Texas

Coast inland through east-central Texas, with 2 to 3 inches for

Southwest Louisiana. This rainfall could produce flash flooding,

especially in low-lying and urban areas.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Karina, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located well 
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast 
of southwestern Mexico are becoming better organized. The 
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later 
today or tonight as the system moves northwestward around 10 mph. 
For more information, including storm warnings, please see High 
Seas forecast issued by National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands in a few days. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter while it moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Katz/Roberts

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion

Apologies if this doesn't show the image, I haven't made an image post myself in forever.

I was wondering, how often do we pay as much attention to remnants as we have of Dolly? It kind of feels like the first time this has happened in a while? Is there anything significant about this?

EDIT: So it didn't post. Oh well. My question stands without the image. It's currently a 0%/10% lemon anyway so it's nothing to write home about, though the fact it's still being tracked is curious to me. It seems to have not happened in a while, us seeing a TC with a chance of redevelopment like this. Any chance at all.

As a NE Texan, I am excited at the possibility of this as occasionally they will disturb the high over us and start the end of oppressive heat. Tracks look like this will come up too far west and not have much east side rain to affect me but could it disrupt the Heat Dome?

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf:

 1. Northern Gulf (AL97):
 An area of low pressure located over the northern Gulf, about 125
 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana, continues to
 become better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm
 activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is
 expected as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-
 lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form
 before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern
 Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

 Interests along the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts
 should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm 
 watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area
 later tonight or Monday morning. Regardless of development, this
 system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
 the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next
 several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
 scheduled to investigate the low-pressure area on Monday morning.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 2. Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
 A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is 
 producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico 
 eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward
 Islands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that
 there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and re-
 development is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave
 moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system
 could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of
 the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
 Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may become
 more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as
 the system reaches the southeastern Gulf.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

Expected landfall Tuesday. A solid rainmaker is expected.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrteced
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Correct low chance to medium chance for the Gulf system

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America 
about 125 mils south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.  
Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this 
system has become better organized since yesterday.  Additional 
development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, 
and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form 
before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana 
coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and 
Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over 
portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during 
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is 
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico 
eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. 
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no 
signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely 
during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to 
west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system should bring locally 
heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple of 
days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the 
middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of 
America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

A narrow but extensive mid-level ridge is parked to the north will keep Karina on a generally westward track.

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion

Just needs some higher cloud tops, so that it uses all the available moisture. In my opinion it should be a PTC.