Major earthquakes, close elections, and a looming fuel crisis has put several countries across Latin America at greater risk of popular uprisings. Recent history suggests protests could spread quickly, even if different causes prompt unrest.
Discontent has a way of ignoring borders.
As citizens in one country take to the streets in frustration with their political climate or the standard of living, their neighbors soon take note, and question the efforts of their own leaders.
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That much was clear in late 2019, as demonstrations cascaded across South America over the course of several months, sweeping through several nations while lacking a singular common cause. Bolivians marched over allegations of electoral fraud. Chileans were sparked by a proposed subway fare hike in Santiago. The people of Ecuador sought (and ultimately achieved) the return of fuel subsidies following cuts. Colombians protested rumored pension cuts, with national strikes that became broader anti-government protests.
Seven years later, a series of devastating earthquakes and a pair of razor-thin presidential elections have again raised the specter of possible unrest as governments struggle to meet the needs of their populations.
“There is a link between all these Latin American countries that can see what is going on in each other and kind of inspire them to do the same,” said Factal Senior Editor Jeff Landset.
Recovery work continues across northwestern and central Venezuela after two strong earthquakes west of Caracas in June left more than 6,500 people dead, but progress has been slow as the country continues to grapple with the fallout of years of political instability, punctuated by the U.S.-led operation in the opening days of January to oust Nicolás Maduro. That instability was on full display in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, when a widely-shared video showed top government minister Diosdado Cabello turning away an American rescue worker attempting to reach the rubble of a collapsed building.
Recent research has shown just how important a robust, effective response is to quelling discord. A study released in April from the Society for Risk Analysis found a 69 percent spike in public protests across Latin America in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, highlighting the need for the quick, efficient distribution of resources to the most heavily impacted areas.
“[The earthquakes] magnified the vulnerability of the people who were living in those countries at that time,” Landset said.
A new government has gotten higher marks in neighboring Colombia in the wake of a 7.4 magnitude tremor in August that killed at least 330 people and injured more than 4,500 others. That disaster followed a hotly-contested vote that saw conservative Abelardo de la Espriella notch the smallest-ever victory for a presidential election in that country, defeating leftist Senator Iván Cepeda by just over 250,000 votes out of 26 million cast. That result did mark a return to form for Colombia, which had consistently opted for conservative governments until the election of Gustavo Petro as the nation’s first left-wing president in 2022.
The stakes are high for Espriella in the wake of the quake, with concerns the disaster could worsen existing problems the country has faced. According to the United Nations’ World Food Programme, nearly seven million people were experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity, including close to one-in-three people in the hardest hit Chocó and Valle del Cauca areas.
While just under a percentage point separated the presidential candidates in Colombia, an even closer race played out in neighboring Peru in June. A sharply divided electorate has swung back and forth between conservative and leftists governments before electing right-winger Keiko Fujimori as its ninth president in the last 10 years in a race that was decided by approximately 50,000 votes.
“A lot of the turmoil and instability in that country can be linked back to just how 50-50 people are [about] whether or not they should have a left-leaning or right-leaning president,” Landset said.
For now at least, the country will once again be guided by conservatives, joining the rightward shift that has also seen conservatives elected in Chile, Ecuador, Argentina and Colombia.
The ongoing disaster responses will go a long way toward determining how residents respond to their new governments, but it’s far from the only factor that will dictate their satisfaction.
As the war in Iran continues to put pressure on energy markets, a key flashpoint in South America in the coming weeks may turn out to be fuel subsidies.
“A lot of the protests that we saw earlier this year basically came down to the cost of living,” Landset said. “If people get to a point where fuel prices are astronomical or out of touch, that could lead to people taking to the streets.”
And if protests break out in one place, it may encourage others to follow.
“I think that if some of these countries can see, especially now that there’s social media and the videos that are coming from different countries are easily accessible on their feeds, they can ask themselves, ‘Hey, why aren’t we protesting just like the people in Peru or Chile or Colombia?’” Landset said.
Written by Joe Veyera. Edited by Jillian Stampher.
Further reading:
Top photo: U.S. personal with Miami-Dade Urban Search and Rescue team walk the disaster zone in La Guaira, Venezuela on June 28, 2026, after two strong earthquakes struck west of Caracas. (Photo/ U.S. Marine Corps, LCpl Allison White)
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