Hi folks,
I thought Iād test the water after the Aquatic Subtlety nerf, in advance of the Marvel release. I did the count all in Mythic (90%-#1800), playing the games over the last three days, and piloting around 10 different decks. As always, a reminder that 100 games isnāt really large enough to statistically pin down the meta, but I think it does give an indication. Itās been three months since I did my last Snapshot in Ranked and apart from the Aquatic Subtlety nerf, the Secrets of Strixhaven releases have also had a fairly significant impact on the meta.
Note: Decks using Secrets of Strixhaven cards, or cards with recent buffs, are bolded in the list.
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The 100 decks I faced:
21x Badger (7xG, 6xUG, 3xRG, 2xWG, 1x WUG, 1xWBG, 1xUBG, 5x didnāt see Badger)
11x Simic X-Spells (3x Badger)
9x Easel/Ceremony Control (6x UR, 2xWUR, 1xWURG)
7x Izzet Spells (3x Cutter/Talent, 1x Burn, 2x Archaic, 1x Spellementals, 1xEmeritus)
6x Aquatic Omni
4x Azorius Fliers (1x Naktamun/Birds)
4x Mono-Red Aggro (1x Aggro/Burn)
4x Izzet Lessons
4x Rakdos Lizards
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2x Orzhov Repartee
2x Orzhov Control (1x Discard)
2x Elves (1xG (Badger), 1xBG)
2x Enchantments (1xW, 1xWU)
2x Mono-Black Warp
2x Mono-White Lifegain
2x Orzhov Bats
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1x Mono-Green Counters
1x Mono-Red Goblins
1x Boros Discard
1x Dimir Faeries
1x Simic Ramp
1x Mardu Ark
1x Sultai Reanimator
1x Temur Manifest Dread
1x Boros Graveyard
1x Izzet Vivi
1x Izzet Elementals
1x Mono-Black ?
1x Mono-Black Midrange?
1x Boros ?
1x Golgari ?
1x Mardu ?
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Deck categorisation
Itās always a bit of a judgement call as to where one deck ends and another begins. I take āBadgerā to essentially be Badger Ramp, with more of an emphasis on mana dorks than other decks that play Badger but donāt optimise it quite so highly. I included five Ouroboroid decks in with the Badger decks even though I didnāt see Badgermole Cub at all, because I donāt see any reason why people wouldnāt have been playing it in them!
The Easel/Ceremony Control deck is somewhat varied in terms of the lists played ā again, Easel is played elsewhere, but this deck goes bigger. Izzet Spells is even more varied, and maybe it would make sense to separate out the Cutter/Talent Prowess version from the others, but they probably play 40-50 of the same cards, so thatās my justification for combining them.
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Comparing with the March Meta Snapshot
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Badger has eased off slightly (again) but is still dominant.
oĀ Ā While Mono-Green is still most common, weāve seen a slight move away from it to other colour combinations.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Aquatic Omni is only slightly down. 6% is still a reasonable meta share ā still far too much for my liking! It can still win, certainly, but itās hard to tell so far whether itās strong enough to survive. The continuing presence of the deck in the meta is probably one of the main takeaways for me from the Snapshot. I think itās probably too soon to judge whether the nerf was successful, but itās definitely not the case that it has immediately disappeared, as weāve seen with some nerfs in the past.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Simic X-Spells has appeared as a major player in the format. Sometimes but not always playing Badgermole Cub, there are a few other differences in builds, but the deck does seem like itās got legs.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Easel/Ceremony Control is another major player ā mostly in Izzet versions, but with some variation. It can sometimes be slow and inconsistent, but thereās no doubt that it can win games. This is now the dominant Control deck in the format.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Dimir and Orzhov Control both had some presence in March (playing various builds), but these have largely disappeared.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Lifegain had a bit of a presence in March, but this has mostly disappeared. Itās possible that the March numbers were just variance, as they were up on the December numbers.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Izzet Spells and Izzet Lessons are up a bit, returning to numbers a little bit closer to December. Izzet Spells has picked up a few new tools.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Azorius Fliers and Mono-Red Aggro continue with a moderate presence.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Itās also interesting to see an uptick in Rakdos Lizards. Some of you may recall that I had Rakdos Lizards as a new entry on my Tier List in May, so this is consistent with my own experience.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā In March, I saw a couple of decks using TMNT cards, but these largely seem to have disappeared.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Apart from Simic Badger, Iāve personally had good success recently with Mono-White Enchantments (Zenith), Azorius Birds (Galecaller), and Simic Frogs, none of which have a major presence in the meta. (Itās been a long time since Iāve seen Frogs around, but a 10-0 winning streak in Mythic convinced me to keep playing, and although my winrate did drop off, itās still been solid.)
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Comparing with the June Event Metagame Snapshot
Three big differences stand out to me:
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā I faced virtually no Badger decks when I was playing Events earlier this month. Thatās a huge difference to the dominance of Badger decks in Ranked.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Azorius Fliers is much more common in Events.
Ā·Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Given that Aquatic Omni had an even larger presence in the Event than in Ranked, the Event meta could be changing more significantly than the Ranked meta following the Aquatic Subtlety nerf.
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Meta dominance
Note: Just a caution that the calculations below are very dependent on how decks are classified.
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Meta dominance ā top deck:
October 2024 ā 12%
December 2024 ā 11%
March 2025 ā 9%
May 2025 ā 21%
September 2025 ā 18%
December 2025 ā 28%
March 2026 ā 24%
June 2026 ā 21%
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Meta dominance ā top two decks:
October 2024 ā 22%
December 2024 ā 21%
March 2025 ā 17%
May 2025 ā 40%
September 2025 ā 27%
December 2025 ā 37%
March 2026 ā 33%
June 2026 ā 32%
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Meta dominance ā top four decks:
October 2024 ā 40%
December 2024 ā 34%
March 2025 ā 29%
May 2025 ā 50%
September 2025 ā 39%
December 2025 ā 51%
March 2026 ā 46%
June 2026 ā 43%
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From this picture, weāre in a better place than we have been since December last year, but still worse than in 2024/early 2025. My preference is for a very diverse meta, so I still think that Badgermole Cub should be nerfed. The Simic X-Spells and Easel/Ceremony decks need a bit more time to be played (even though Iām personally not a fan of Easel/Ceremony in the meta). This Snapshot doesnāt tell us anything about deck strength, but certainly people think theyāre worth taking for a run, so it will be interesting to see whether they sustain their current level.
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Colour balance
Blue is now essentially the dominant colour in Alchemy BO1, trailed by Green and Red. White and Black have very little presence, relatively speaking. This seems like a bit of a problem to me, or perhaps a symptom of a broader problem. As Iāve said before, a more even balance would be great.
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Cards seeing the most play from recent set releases
TMNT had only really just come out when I did my last Metagame Snapshot, so I would include it here along with Secrets of Strixhaven, but the only card seeing very wide play (since Sewer-veillance Cam was banned) is North Wind Avatar. In contrast, a good number of SOS cards are being played, and the strike rate for SOS Alchemy is very high.
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Secrets of Strixhaven
Flow State
Tablet of Discovery
Traumatic Critique
Daydream
Erode
Great Hall of the Biblioplex
Flashback
Geometerās Arthropod
Rapturous Moment
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Secrets of Strixhaven Alchemy
Inspiring Easel
Scalar Scholar
Variable Solutions
Summitfest Closing Ceremony
Interdisciplinary Studies
Expansive Reapplication
Consumed by History
Anina, Natural Parallelist
Phoenix of Iteration
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Thatās me for now. Keen to hear your thoughts!