Previous predictions: July, August

Happy Venice eve! Didn't prepare a Substack this month, partially because there's not a lot of significant movement since last time and also because my new job doesn't leave me a lot of time to goof off at work write up an extensive post. Next month will be post-Venice and post-TIFF so I'll work to be back at it in October with all of our new info.

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Best Picture

1. The Odyssey (Universal) (--)
2. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight) (--)
3. La Bola Negra (Netflix) (--)
4. Digger (Warner Bros.) (--)
5. The Debut (A24) (▲1)
6. Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM) (▼1)
7. Fjord (Neon) (--)
8. All of a Sudden (Neon) (▲2)
9. Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.) (▼1)
10. Obsession (Focus) (▼1)

Next in line:

• The Invite (A24) (--)
• Ink (Netflix) (▲1)
• Behemoth! (Searchlight) (▼1)
• Bunker (Sony Pictures Classics) (▲4)
• Elsinore (Focus) (▲2)

Longer shots:

• The Social Reckoning (Sony) (▼2)
• Fatherland (Mubi) (▼2)
• Being Heumann (Apple) (▼2)
• Primetime (A24) (NEW)
• Sense and Sensibility (Focus) (▼1)

I feel fairly good about this group at this point in the year, which means I'd be extremely lucky to get 80% of these right by the end of the day. Still feeling like Wild Horse Nine and maybe La Bola Negra will be the only Davids that can possibly take down Goliath. I pulled some data a little while ago that five films have won two or more acting awards in the expanded Picture era: two of them won Picture (EEAAO/Oppenheimer), one was the unofficial runner-up (Three Billboards), and the other two were likely top five in their years (The Fighter/Dallas Buyers Club) - all this to say that I kind of have to put The Debut in the top half with (spoilers) Moore and Giamatti leading their categories. Both international Neon films plus La Bola Negra would be an unprecedented three international films in Picture (remember when we tried that last year?) but I have all three with nomination combos that justify their inclusion so I'm going to keep swinging big and keep them all in.

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Best Directing

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (--)
2. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (--)
3. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, La Bola Negra (--)
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (--)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (--)

Next in line:

• Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (▲2)
• Danny Boyle, Ink (▲3)
• Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (▲4)
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite (▲4)
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (▼3)

Longer shots:

• Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (▼5)
• Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (▼3)
• Florian Zeller, Bunker (▲2)
• Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland (▼3)
• Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (NEW)

Holding onto this same group. Despite being such a populist year, I think the branch is going to keep most of those names out (e.g. Villeneuve, Lord/Miller). I'm also a little skeptical they'll be receptive to our two actor-turned-directors; I really don't know if I buy this extreme confidence in Wilde in particular. I know she's our best bet on a female director crashing the lineup, but that doesn't feel like a "directing achievement" that anyone is going to rush to award, and it feels so much like the year when Sarah Polley for Women Talking was basically the only female option and it didn't pan out.

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Best Actor in a Leading Role

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (--)
2. Tom Cruise, Digger (--)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (--)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (▲1)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (▼1)

Next in line:

• Robert Pattinson, Primetime (▲1)
• Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (▼1)
• Jack O'Connell, Ink (▲4)
• Javier Bardem, Bunker (▲1)
• Sebastian Stan, Fjord (▼2)

Longer shots:

• Jafaar Jackson, Michael (▼2)
• John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (▼1)
• Seth Rogen, The Invite (NEW)
• Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (▼1)
• Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (--)

I'm bracing for the Cruise campaign to ramp up very quickly very soon, and I only think that is going to work if Digger is Birdman/Revenant-tier Iñárritu - we'll see. There's increasing wariness in Gosling's chances and I get it, but I'm going to hold onto him at least we hear how these fall festival premieres fare (Primetime, Bunker, Ink, etc.); all of them have potential to move up in this category if their films are hits.

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Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (--)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (--)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (--)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (▲2)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (▲5)

Next in line:

• Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (▼1)
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite (--)
• Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (▼4)
• Penélope Cruz, Bunker (▲3)
• Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (▼2)

Longer shots:

• Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (--)
• Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (▼3)
• Kate O'Flynn, Tender Loving Care (NEW)
• Zendaya, The Drama (▲1)
• Laura Linney, Onwards and Upwards (NEW)

Still just shooting in the dark here. I think this category is going to be a pretty weird one no matter what happens in the fall fests so let's get silly. The Silver Bear win at Berlin seemed to work well for Rose Byrne last year and for Sebastian Stan the year before, albeit in a slightly different way for the latter. Rose is a pretty small movie that doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, but it was/is quite a year for Huller and the movie had strong reviews out of Berlin - so, if only for this month, why not? Again, I'm skeptical of the confidence in Wilde here, but frankly I do think she might be likelier here than in Director.

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Best Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (--)
2. John Goodman, Digger (--)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (--)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (▲3)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (--)

Next in line:

• Edward Norton, The Invite (▲3)
• Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (▲1)
• Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (▼2)
• Riz Ahmed, Digger (▼4)
• Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra (--)

Longer shots:

• Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (▲3)
• Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (▲3)
• Antonio Banderas, Tony (NEW)
• Carlos González, La Bola Negra (▼3)
• Paul Dano, Bunker (NEW)

Welcome to the club, Monum. I'm biding time before I decide what to do with Ink as a whole, but I could really see this as an easy afterglow nonination following The Brutalist. It's looking like the baitiest role of the movie, and to make another Danny Boyle comparison, Ink could even be a Steve Jobs level contender (i.e. not a huge one) and a Winslet-style nomination might not be out of the question.

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Best Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (--)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (--)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (▲3)
4. Lola Dueñas, La Bola Negra (▲4)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (--)

Next in line:

• Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (▼3)
• Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (--)
• Claire Foy, Ink (▲4)
• Olivia Colman, Elsinore (▲1)
• Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (▼6)

Longer shots:

• Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (--)
• Sandra Hüller, Digger (▼3)
• Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (--)
• Merritt Wever, Primetime (NEW)
• Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning (NEW)

The big consensus shift this month is that Cruz doesn't have enough of a role in La Bola Negra to be the contender here we once thought. It makes enough sense: it both lets her focus on a campaign for the meatier role she has in The Invite, and clears the way for Lola Dueñas to mount a campaign for a bigger role in La Bola Negra and a long-running career in Spanish cinema. Seems like a win for both. Everybody welcome Claire Foy back to the Oscar race; will third time actually be the charm?

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Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

1. Wild Horse Nine (--)
2. The Debut (▲1)
3. Digger (▼1)
4. Fjord (--)
5. Obsession (▲1)

Next in line:

• Behemoth! (▼1)
• Elsinore (--)
• Club Kid (--)
• Bunker (▲1)
• Fatherland (▼1)

Longer shots:

• Tender Loving Care (NEW)
• Misty Green (NEW)
• Artificial (▼1)
• Possible Love (▼3)
• I Play Rocky (--)

Confirmed to be explicitly tackling heavy political themes alongside his usual screenwriting style? Honestly I think we might as well engrave McDonagh's name on this trophy already. I'll keep reiterating that he was a bonafide runner-up for his last two nominations, and his biggest threat looks to be Jesse Eisenberg, who does have a similar "narrative" but on a much smaller scale.

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Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

1. La Bola Negra (--)
2. The Odyssey (--)
3. The Invite (▲2)
4. Project Hail Mary (▼1)
5. All of a Sudden (--)

Next in line:

• Ink (--)
• The Social Reckoning (--)
• Dune: Part Three (--)
• Primetime (NEW* - seems to be confirmed based on the article 'Tonight on Dateline, This Man Will Die.')
• Being Heumann (--)

Longer shots:

• Sense and Sensibility (▼2)
• A Long Winter (--)
• A Statement (NEW)
• Prima Facie (▲1)
• The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (▼4)

Not much going on here. This isn't feeling like a particularly deep field, and I'd be a little surprised if anything else saw a significant surge outside of my top ten. A month removed, I don't feel like the Odyssey screenplay is going to ride the rest of the film’s momentum, but I could be wrong.

I organized an AMA/Q&A with actress Jodie Comer. You may know her from fantastic roles in things like Killing Eve, The Last Duel, 28 Years Later, The Bikeriders, Free Guy.

It's live here now in r/movies for anyone interested in asking a question:

https://www.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/1w4bbu1/hi_rmovies_jodie_comer_here_with_michael_sarnoski/

She will be back at 12 PM ET tomorrow (Wednesday 9/2) to answer questions. I recommend asking in advance. Please ask there, not here. All questions are much appreciated!

Thank you :)

Her newest film, The Death of Robin Hood, is out in UK theaters on September 2. It co-stars Hugh Jackman and is directed by Michael Sarnoski (Pig).

Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlSDDuWxO_0&themeRefresh=1

Leonora Ann Darby, an executive producer on Curry Barker’s “Obsession,” sued two of her fellow producers, alleging she was cut out of her share of the horror movie’s profits after they reneged on an agreement.

Per the lawsuit, which was filed in California state court, James Harris and Mark Lane, the co-founders of Tea Shop Productions, agreed to treat her as an equal producer, but was allegedly shut out of “Obsession’s” net profit participation, despite her work “rescu[ing]” the movie.

“This action arises from a seven-year pattern of unequal treatment and broken compensation promises by two older male film producers to a younger female producer whose labor was material to the growth of their company and who rescued their biggest film, the global hit ‘Obsession,’” the filing, obtained and viewed by TheWrap, stated.

While Darby was named an executive producer on the horror film, her team argued in Monday’s filing that she served as the lead producer, with the suit highlighting that “Tea Shop’s contemporaneous communications acknowledged that Darby had carried [the company]’s takeover and had been more involved than Lane.”

BEST PICTURE

I still view The Odyssey, La Bola Negra and Wild Horse Nine as our top 3 with Odyssey out front for now, moreso as a placeholder since I think it land most nominations but keeping an eye on the other two depending on how they perform at the fall fests. I’m still gonna predict Digger until the reviews drop. 5-10 I don’t have a lot to add on except I finally moved The Invite in, it could fall off but I’ve become convinced the actors and script can happen (maybe director on its best day). Last thing I’ll add is I’m keeping my eye on Ink as the potential fall breakout.

DIRECTING

I’ve moved Nolan to number one, I could see him winning this more than The Odyssey taking Picture but Los Javis and McDonagh are also compelling options, Hamaguchi I have faith in All of a Sudden but between him and Mungiu whom I don’t have in, both will be dependent on their film’s strength and rounding out my 5 is Iñárritu. Olivia Wilde I’d love to see in but I have my reservations towards how the branch views actor/directors but I will say that except for Past Lives, every A24 film has landed in Director so it’s not impossible.

LEAD ACTRESS

Not a lot to work with here, Navarrette and Moore are my top 2. Whether or not Wilde lands in Director, I think she’ll land here and it helps she’s excellent in The Invite, Efria I have in purely since I think her film will be in and with Hüller in Rose, could be nothing but I think she has a shot at Globe Drama which could benefit her. I’ll keep my eye on Erivo, Reinsve and Madison as potential alts but we’ll see.

LEAD ACTOR

Besides Malkovich, Cruise and Damon, the last two slots are really anyone’s game. I’ll play it safe and do Scott and Pascal, their films could end up being nothing once the fests are over but both have compelling cases to get their first nominations respectively. Man, this year is going to be competitive here since there’s also cases for Gosling, Pattinson, Turturro, Rogen, O’Connell and Stan to happen.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I’ve moved Hathaway to number one, could win her 2nd unless someone steps up to challenge. Cruz getting a double nom is possible but I’m leaning on The Invite as her nom. Girolamo makes sense based on early reactions to her, Okamoto I have getting in alongside Efria and for the 5th spot, I swapped Morton for Lola Dueñas, I could see this happening since reactions look to be strong for her, outside the 5 Cruz as mentioned for LBN and not that I expect it but I’d love a push for Gillian Anderson in Camp Miasma.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Giamatti I still have at number one but I wonder if Guy Pearce could be a serious challenger if Ink gets strong reactions tomorrow. Rockwell I still think is going to happen, Leguizamo I feel will coattail The Odyssey to a career nomination and rounding out my 5 is Norton, I’d love if a case built for him to finally win but I could see critics pushing for him as well as the other Invite castmates. Goodman I feel sceptical towards him than I did previously but other potentials I think could be Buscemi, Strong and Guitarricadelafuente.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I still have Wild Horse Nine at number one, whether or not it’s a threat in Picture, McDonagh winning this checks out although it would be insane if he lost 3 times in a row to a buzzy genre film, that said I don’t see Digger or Obsession winning but both I have in, The Debut checks out and Behemoth in the last spot since that could be an interesting character study. Fjord, Club Kid and Tender Loving Care I have as wildcards, with the latter having a case to give Mike Leigh one final nom if this is his final film.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

La Bola Negra still out front since I think it will be our likely runner-up/winner but I have thought could The Invite be a real challenger if it’s in there for Picture, with how it’s spotlighting a lot of memorable dialogue and monologues. I have The Odyssey in as an additional nom but don’t see it taking this, especially if Oppenheimer couldn’t win when that took Picture. All of a Sudden since I have it in my 10 and for now, I took out Project Hail Mary for Ink with in adapting this Tony winning play and as potential breakout for the festivals, just testing the waters with what it could get nominations for.

I don’t often post my predictions here, but I thought I might as well before the festivals arrive and inevitably throw a wrench in them…

First off, let’s address the elephant in the room that is Michael. I don’t like it any more than you do, but the whole year I’ve just had this hunch that it’ll return come awards season. The film was a mega-success at the box office and with audiences so while the critic reviews were less than stellar there does seem to be passion for the film. I think as the year clears out it might become a mainstay of some tech categories like costumes/sound/makeup and build its hype in a similar way to Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody. I also think even haters of the film appreciate Jackson’s performance and we know how the acting branch feels about portraying famous people… I might be totally wrong here but screw it I’m running with it.

The rest of my predictions aren’t nearly as crazy and for the most part I feel I’m going pretty chalk. I don’t believe in The Invite nearly as much as most, however, and have it being a lone screenplay nominee. I also have The Odyssey winning way too many categories but for now the winners don’t really mean as much and I’m more focused on who’s getting nominated. My one reservation is that my predictions feel pretty populist but that does seem to be the kind of year we’re having. You can blast my predictions in the comments, I’m used to it. Let me know if you agree or disagree.

Hello! Here is my final pre Fall Festival 2027 Oscars Nominations Predictions for the ATL categories. I'm not sure if Casting counts as ATL or not but I included it anyways lol. I'm willing to elaborate any of my more noteworthy predictions below and I'll explain here for now!

No Digger: I'm still not buying Digger's stonks. Everything in my body is screaming this is going to be a polarizing and gigantic flop, and frankly, I think critics will be eager to rip AGI to shreds. Could the Academy still like Digger even if critics hate it? Yes, absolutely lol. But I really feel like they're going to HATE it, to the point where its scores are in the 30s, and I haven't seen the Academy embrace poorly reviewed AGI stuff enough to the extent where they'll go for this if critics do in fact loathe it. The best modern precedent would be the Academy embracing Don't Look Up, but we had more evidence of the Academy embracing poorly reviewed McKay work than we do for AGI, at least IMO.

No Dune: Part 3: I know this take is equally if not more unpopular, but I'm not convinced Dune: Part 3 will be big either. The Academy will simply never like a sequel more than its Predecessor IMO, and my brain can't fathom how Dune went from 10 Nominations and 6 wins to 5 Nominations and 2 wins for the first 2 films, despite the sequel being a good bit MORE acclaimed. Could Dune: Part 3 be Return of the King? Sure I guess, but that feels like such a hollow and baseless comparison IMO. The Lord of the Rings franchise was also much stronger than the Dune franchise, as Fellowship of the Ring was actually able to get a Directing Nomination at the Oscars while the first Dune film didn't.

Penelope Cruz x2: Yes, I have Cruz in for both La Bola Negra and The Invite. I know the popular thing to do now is drop Cruz for La Bola Negra with many hoping Netflix pushes Lola Dueñas instead, but honestly that just feels like a massive hopediction to me. Netflix is, IMO, going to capitalize on the limited star power that La Bola Negra has, and I just can't see them passing Cruz up when she's right there. I do think it's possible Dueñas could get in WITH Cruz if La Bola Negra is strong enough, but I'm not buying Netflix simply won't push Cruz.

Jeremy Strong for The Social Reckoning: Like most people, I do think The Social Reckoning will flop with awards, however I'm keeping Strong in as a lone nominee. As evident by last year, the acting lineups will never just be picks from Best Picture Nominees, and Sorkin films nowadays do the best with acting more than anywhere else (Being The Ricardos getting 3 Acting Nominations despite underperforming overall, Trial of the Chicago 7 winning SAG Ensemble, etc) and Strong to me feels like a perfect non Best Picture prediction to make.

Other names in the line up: Danny Boyle, Brad Bird, Naomi Ackie, James Gray, John Malkovich and Mahershala Ali.

Likely confirms the presence of Ray Gunn, Paper Tiger, Wild Horse Nine and Your Mother x3. Possibly I Love Boosters too (yet to release in the UK), unless Ackie is here as a part of Clayface promotion.

I organized an AMA/Q&A with actor Andrew Scott. He is known for countless memorable roles in films, TV, and on the stage, including: WAKE UP DEAD MAN, FLEABAG, RIPLEY, ALL OF US STRANGERS, SPECTRE, DENIAL, 1917, and BLUE MOON.

It's live here now in r/movies for anyone interested in asking a question:

https://www.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/1w492dn/hello_reddit_im_andrew_scott_ama/

He will be back at around 2 PM ET today to answer questions. I recommend asking in advance. Please ask there, not here. All questions are much appreciated!

Thank you :)

His new film, a WW2 drama based on a true story, Pressure, was out in US theaters earlier this year and is hitting UK cinemas next week. It also stars Brandon Fraser, Kerry Condon, Damian Lewis, and Chris Messina.

Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYa8N3R2cZw

Synopsis: The fate of the free world hangs in the balance as Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower and Capt. James Stagg face an impossible choice -- launch the D-Day invasion or risk losing World War II altogether.

The film's rating is still not available on filmratings.com, but you can see it on the film's official website, wildwoodmovie.com, you need to scroll all the way to the bottom of the page and then zoom in.

This Had Oscar Buzz + Katey and Chris. Lots of fun stuff in here, worth a watch imo.

Ink has acclaimed source material, a respected director, a strong cast, and a baity subject matter. Seems like an obvious nominee to me and I think the only reason it’s not more widely predicted is that people are slow to catch up after it being announced for this year.

I think Digger is going to be a very divisive box office flop with a similar awards trajectory to Babylon. It just looks messy, especially given the leaks, and I’m inclined to trust my doubts about Iñárritu handling this sort of material after Bardo. 

The Debut is more a gut feeling, I could definitely be wrong here, but it just looks pretty unexciting to me? Like, I don’t feel like there will be passion for a movie about community theater. I feel like A Real Pain was lightning in the bottle and wouldn’t have gotten as far as it did if it weren’t for people being so excited to award Culkin. Jay Kelly is the comp I’m thinking about in being liked but not loved.

And for both of the D contenders, I have them out of acting categories, because those almost always require a Picture nomination, passion from critics, or a biopic role. Cruise might be an exception because of his narrative, but Best Actor is strong as hell this year. 

Fjord vs All of a Sudden is basically a coin flip for me. Would not be remotely surprised if I was wrong about it.

I feel like ONE of Leguizamo or Pattinson is going to make it but I think which is still an open question. And given how strong the field is, I’m just going to take both of them out for now. 

Cruz is predicted for The Invite, not LBN. It’s the more acclaimed performance in the larger role, and LBN has what I think will be a buzzier performance at the end of the day in Duenas. I have Guitarricadelafuente in as well because it would be just about unprecedented for a top 3 movie to have only one acting nomination: they often surprise us like with the Sinners cast, Rossellini, or Sterling K. Brown.

I’ve read that the Behemoth script has a good role for a child actor, so that’s why I’ve gone with it for the weak 5th spot in Casting.

A source close to the film confirms to Gold Derby that Coyote vs. Acme isn't eligible for Best Animated Feature consideration and thus can't be submitted to go head-to-head with current front-runner, Toy Story 5. That's because despite Coyote vs. Acme's extensive number of animated sequences and sizable cartoon cast — including Looney Tunes favorites like Daffy Duck, Foghorn Leghorn, and Tweety Bird — the film doesn't meet one of the category's key rules requiring that 75% of the film be animated.

Not surprised, but FYI if you're in the prediction game

I saw the Transformers movie 40th anniversary rerelease trailer but didn’t know until today it was hinting at a new animated short film to be included after the movie.

There is a groundswell of love and nostalgia for Transformers and Cullen. And it’s his final performance.

The company behind the animation has quite a VFX resume. Responsible for planning the unforgettable epic Quicksilver slowmo kitchen sequence in X-Men Days of Future Past and helped the Emmy-winning “Battle of the Bastards” episode of Game of Thrones.