New programs and oversaturation?

[u/cremepralinee]

It feels like a new program is popping up every few months, and while the job market is fairly okay now I feel like I wouldn’t be surprised if ten years down the road we end up getting oversaturated? Maybe I just live in an area that’s more saturated than the rest of the country but I already don’t see many jobs pop up in my area and I worry the constant influx of PAs is going to make this (and salaries) even worse. Totally open to being told if I’m wrong but these new programs just feel like money grabs instead of a way of actually improving and bettering the field. When I went to school I believe there were maybe 12 programs in the US and now less than ten years later we’re at nearly double that and still counting. Does anyone else have any thoughts?

[u/fluffy0whining]

I live in an oversaturated state with a PA program. Ngl it sucks. Don’t get me wrong, I’m grateful to have a job but I’m stuck where I am (which is less than ideal) unless I want to move and leave family.

[u/cremepralinee → u/fluffy0whining]

100% one of my main concerns, my family lives in a state that’s extremely oversaturated with PAs (one of the bigger more well established programs is close by), and most hospitals in the area only recently started paying over $100k within the last few years. Unfortunately I’m not willing to take such a significant l pay cut but I would kill for the opportunity to be closer to my family without having to significantly sacrifice salary. It really sucks not being able to just work even semi-close to my home state, especially as my parents are getting older. But to put it in perspective when I applied for jobs as a new grad, I ended up taking a position at a big academic hospital that offered me over $120k. A big academic hospital in the (VHCOL and highly desirable) city closest to my parents offered me $83k, I just couldn’t afford to take that kind of pay cut, especially when I took out six figures in loans to be able to be here in the first place.

[u/jhere2lurk → u/cremepralinee]

Out of curiosity… was that academic hospital in Boston?😅😅

[u/zZINCc → u/jhere2lurk]

Boston is unfortunately always going to underpay. They finally started to pay over 100k starting but compared to Boston COL that is nothing.

[u/MaeaM]

There’s so many new programs I can’t keep track. Just wanted to say that I agree and share your concerns.

[u/bolognafoam]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the programs dry up due to the changes/new criteria with federal student loan borrowing. I personally would not go to grad school rn if I had to take out any loans

[u/Friar_Ferguson]

There are WAY too many PAs being certified each year based off of ASCP data. I am seeing the same trend for PA we had in cytotechnology decades ago, even the numbers are eerily similar. If it stays this way and the field doesn't find a way to upskill to create more demand, there will be a contraction in programs due to a horrible job market. It took cytotechnology well over a decade and many school closures to get supply and demand back in favor of employees. Niche fields are not fun to be in when the job market sucks. Your skills are so specific that they don't translate well to other fields. Cytology had lowest vacancy rate in the lab, besides cytogenetics, according to ASCP data for many years. It lead to stagnant wages and some techs had to go back to school for other careers. Wasn't until the number of people certified yearly dropped 60+ percent that vacancy rate and salary went up. Clearly PA is heading down the same path. It's just a question of when will the saturation hit and what the reaction will be.

[u/cremepralinee → u/Friar_Ferguson]

This is exactly my concern. It makes me so sad, I’m less than 10 years out of school, still in massive amounts of debt, and for what? In a few years it feels like we’ll be stuck in a niche field with stagnant pay unless we stop greedily coming out with a new program every few months.

[u/fluffy0whining → u/cremepralinee]

Feels like pay is already stagnant. Barely getting a 2% over here 🥲

[u/WednesdayButBlonde → u/Friar_Ferguson]

I interviewed for a position this week that offered me what I made 10 years ago, same state, similar if not higher COL city. Then I got a rejection email for not agreeing with their pay scale.

[u/gnomes616]

I've seen the moldy oldies on FB mention this sort of cycle had happened before, with more programs opening and then whittling back down after a while. I expect the same will happen again eventually.

[u/unpredictablemuggle]

Yeah I definitely think it's a valid concern. Not only are they going to start saturating the market but then a lot of positions will also go unfilled (I always see open positions in the Midwest which I feel are less than desirable locations unless you have ties there). Because of that, new grads will start taking lower paying jobs and that's terrible for all of us

[u/wangston1]

No clue, and this is my speculation. Healthcare is growing like crazy and boomers are going to need more care than any generation. I think it won't be a problem until after they all die off and the demand for healthcare falls off. However the population is up all over the US. So will the demand die off because the population is always growing, which I turn should keep the demand for healthcare up.

I don't know how many of you track your volume but I have been at my place for nearly 5 years and we have gone up 4-6% in volume every year. At my last job they tracked it as well and I don't recall the increase percentage, but they did increase every year I was there.

[u/8isgr → u/wangston1]

Have they added more PA positions since you've been there?

[u/wangston1 → u/8isgr]

Originally it was one PA. I got hired on as the new second postion. It was for the growth they had at the time and the growth they were anticipating. So for the first year or two I didn't do much. Now I do more but it still isn't a lot. It's mostly smalls and like 0-3 cancer cases a day.

They have hired an additional Pathologist and 2 additional histotechs as well. I don't think even with the amount we have increased, 2k cases over the 5 years, a warrants another person as it's more gi bxs and skin Bxs. That's like 6 more gi bxs cases a day. That's why we track case volume when talking to admin.

[u/MLStoPA]

My BFF is a pharmacist and just hearing all their issues from over saturation is worrying me - drops in pay, inability to leave because they’ll immediately rehire a new grad at a lower rate, etc. You’re basically stuck.

[u/histokitten → u/MLStoPA]

I almost went to pharmacy school but as a pharmacy tech all my pharmacist warned me about over saturation, pay dropping, and how unhappy they were. Considered PA school for a while but was worried about the same thing. 😬

[u/gdefreese]

I also worry about over saturation. I agree with other commenters that it seems like volume is slowly increasing, however in my state we are seeing a large increase of hospital systems eating up small hospitals. Smaller hospitals that used to have PAs are now shutting down and specimens are all being sent to the MAIN lab (without hiring more PAs). So that’s my biggest concern

[u/Alert-Rip9296]

I just learned UT Houston has a new program that will open next year. How does this compete with UTMB’s program since UT Houston Methodist and MD Anderson are listed as clinical sites for the UTMB program? MDA will likely pair with UT so that could be a big loss for UTMB. As far as I’m aware, this is the first time that there are two programs within an hour’s drive of one another.

Over-saturation has been a hot topic for years. Our profession still has large pockets around the country where program-trained and/or certified PAs are not utilized due to groups and hospitals not wanting to pay our salaries. And those of us with 15+ years of experience are being passed over for new grads because they’re cheaper.

[u/naterz1416]

Well all these new programs should head over to the west coast because in Washington state there is just 1 program for the entire state. There isn't a single program in Oregon at all even with a medical school and only 1 program for the entire state of California. Most pathology labs here just have grossing technicians with a bachelors degree.