“If China is gone the global supply chain severed overnight”

And i think that’s stupid outside of several months after Xi Jinping died.

Why?

Because this assume China is naturally a single entity in the first place.

You have North China plain which is straddled among Huanghe that’s nicknamed “China sorrow” because the particularly dense silt make the river course to go all over the place and attempt to engineer it out by diking it only makes it even worse in the long run as a where biggest chunk of the populations lived for millennia.

You got Yangtze that unlike Huanghe actually don’t produce that much silt and actually deep enough to sustain 21th century commerce but have a karst belt on it’s northern & southern bank so you ain’t gonna build anything significant there add in three Gorges Dam and it’s 22 billion cubic meter of water makes everyone downstream (400 million people) the upstream bitches.

You got Sichuan which is the only self sufficient fortress province in all of China.

And you got the Southern province like the Southern Karst Belt that’s just as shithole/ even worse than North China plain because the entire province is just Karst mountain all over the place.

And then at the eastern & southern tip of that Karst belt you got Fujian & Guangdong which thanks to that Karst Belt can’t feed itself at all.

And I’m not even talking exotics like Manchuria/ Inner Mongolia/ East Turkestan.

And here’s the thing:

If your supply chain is pure goyim supply chain of Shenzhen-Dongguan-Guangzhou… congratulations they can’t feed themself anyway so of course they gonna continue producing because you can be damn sure that Australian/ Thai’s/ Americans grains are not donations (and they know this fact longer than US of A even existing).

Maybe there’s some red turban uprising among the dog kernel dweller/ urban village dweller but then again southern theater command already concentrated everything they have into Shenzhen-Dongguan-Guangzhou in the first place.

If you’re Shanghai-Hangzhou pure goyim supply chain it’s the same thing with addition of your Chinese counterparty is even more desperate because there’s 22 billion cubic meter of water hanging on top of their head.

If you can find Manchuria, Sichuan, Fujian, Inner Mongolia, East Turkestan on the map… congratulations 👏👏👏 they still sell stuff to you.

The only place where you somewhat fucked is if your supply chain is in the Karst Belt itself/ in North China plain and you still have to sort between something a peasant rebellion like red turban can do (mining Tungsten) where you’re not exactly fucked/ can’t do (running ASU, Server Farm, Egg Laying Broiler Genetics) where you’re completely and utterly fucked.

I think Iran won’t just lost Zangezur to New Seljuk.

It’s walk in the park (it’s next door and held by a people that keep losing ground and humiliated by its neighbor).

They absolutely gonna lost Southern Caspia.

Because taking it means all Turks have to do is to build rail & pipeline across a very flat terrain instead of undersea pipeline & ferries.

Yes there’s a problem with Gilani & Madzarani (which Persians) and the fact that Turkish Lira lost and gained quite a number of 0 BUT IT’S STILL BETTER THAN 3 EXCHANGE RATE (“official”/ “preferential”/ actual).

And Golestan is Turkmen anyway.

And Iranians already built most of it themself.

Powerfully sums up how strong this war has made Iran, how weakened it has made the US and how it will reconfigure Iran’s relationship with countries around the Middle East and around the world. Bottom line: control of the strait of Hormuz is a far more powerful deterrent and potential weapon than a nuclear bomb could ever be.

This also shows the stupidity of Israel’s position and its complete lack of political imagination and risk management in pushing for this war. Israel is now facing a far stronger and more emboldened Iran - and one that will rush to get a bomb and can use control of the Strait and potential attacks against other energy infrastructure to deter attacks.

As Kagan puts it:

“Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is a more useful instrument of power than a nuclear weapon would be. A nuclear weapon might deter an attack, but control of the strait gives Iran leverage every day, over dozens of countries. With it, Iran can reward friends, punish enemies, extract revenue, force the loosening of sanctions, and make governments think twice before opposing Iranian policies. It can do all of this without firing a shot, and while preserving the ability to threaten violence when necessary.”

I really wished South Asians diaspora is better than these retarded position about a mere 100k one time fee when the time comes.

This is not just embarrassing, this is lethal.

Because Bharat Raj cannot and will not be able to feed itself no matter how hard it tried.

Yes on paper you guys are the largest rice exporters on the planet but you guys import all of your fertilizer period and that without accounting the insanity you guys did in Punjab.

And this without taking into account the fact that it’s not if but when did India’s forced absorb of both Pakistan & Bangladesh.

And you guys are Dhal importer ffs even if Golden Temple can still afford to dole out free rice the Dhal that covers the protein deficiency is imported (chief among them is from Canada & Australia).

source

I'm constantly surprised that the majority of middle powers aren't joining Canada in retalliatory tariffs. The world would be a better place if we dedollarized the global economy to put an end to all this economic manipulation strong arming us to play a rigged game, got through the military hissy fit they will inevitably throw, and omnilaterally sanction them back to the iron age. I guarantee, if you're feeling worried but thankful they haven't come for your country yet, left unchecked, they absolutely will. It's nuts to me that we aren't viewing this country as a threat the magnitude of nazi Germany, or Stalin's USSR. Modern USA is far more aggressive, insidious, and untrustworthy. What's up with that?

Kishore Mahbubani lays out three possible futures for China and the West: maximum pressure, muddling through, or enlightened cooperation.

Which path or alternatives do you think is most likely and why?

So I am writing my undergraduate thesis and have to come up with a research idea and a little paragraph talking about my thesis idea and I need some ideas and insights as to how I can take it in a fruitful direction.

Abstract: With the recent US Iran conflict and the ongoing Russia Ukraine war, it has become evident that the great powers no longer enjoy an exclusive advantage in military capabilities due to certain developments in the technology and economics of military production. These developments have strengthened the ability of middle powers to deter military and political encroachment by adversaries possessing an advantage in military capabilities. Therefore this raises a series of questions regarding the viability of the present global equilibrium. Hence, this research paper seeks to explore whether the global order has moved away from the post cold war global order? If so, what are the factors influencing this shift? Finally, what are the implications for this order as the International system moves towards a new equilibrium?

This is a tentative idea open to change and in the beginning stages of a project that'll take 2 semesters(currently a week into the first of those 2 semesters).

Please help with some insights or if you have any ideas that I could use to write a richer thesis.

They think that they care about their country:

They don’t.

Their first priority is to rule until their death.

They know that once they’re retire/ resigned they will get stabbed to death (literally and figuratively).

Because they purged too many of their own loyalist just to do that.

Some of them they literally poison, throw off window, etc.

And on top of that they refused to even tell their minions how the next Tsar/ Huangdi is chosen. Let alone naming the next Huangdi/ Tsar.

Because once again they purged too many of their own loyalist just to do that.

And then they die (that’s never negotiable).

And their minions stuck o a vicious devils bargain.

They survived Putin & Xi.

They all know what Putin & Xi did to their loyalist let alone their rivals.

They know that the others know.

And they know there’s no such thing as second chances because Putin & Xi did not gave it.

And their own country history did not gave Beria a happy ending none of them want to be the next Bo Xilai let alone a Gang of Four.

And those outsiders that dare to say “please cooperate” aren’t just delusional, they’re insolent scum that did not know their places.

Outsides aren’t the one that will get shot by the others that did not listen to them, outsiders are not the one that will have their entire family put to firing squad, and above all they’re not even on the table, they won’t be the one that will get chased all the way to Mexico with a pickaxe on their head to be called traitors/ terrorist upon their death.

But the minions are.

And they will not get shot by the others.

They will not have their entire family put into firing line.

They will not get chased all the way to Mexico with a pickaxe on their head to be called traitors/ terrorist upon their death.

As long as they still draw breath.

Hjj