r/SimulationTheory • u/Buffmyarm • 4d ago

Discussion How does our ability to create realistic simulations make it likely that our reality is a simulation too?

In the original simulation argument nick bostrom says once we press the big red button to run simulations the odds of us being in one goes to near 100%, why is that the case?

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u/Simple_Quiet_1422 4d ago

We really need some megathread for this subreddit.

It’s the same like 10 recycled questions over and over

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u/Buffmyarm 4d ago

Well whats the anwser

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u/Simple_Quiet_1422 4d ago

Never said I had the answer, I said the basic question has been asked a bunch of times. The answer is unknowable at present.

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u/Mortal-Region 4d ago

The idea is that if there are very many simulations, each indistinguishable from reality, then you're more likely to be in one of the simulations than the one actual reality.

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u/Buffmyarm 4d ago

But if we make a million simulations then we know we made them, why does that affect us?

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u/Mortal-Region 4d ago

If we're in a simulation, the simulations we make would be sub-simulations. The idea is that we might be in somebody else's simulation. Future humans, perhaps, simulating Earth in 2026.

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u/Buffmyarm 4d ago

Well that still doesnt make it likely? How is this more likely than religion

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u/Mortal-Region 4d ago

It's likely if there are very many simulations. (Although, even if there will only ever be a single Earth 2026 simulation, it's still a 50/50 chance that we're in it.)

It's not a religion because there's nothing supernatural about it. It's just an idea about what super-powerful computers would be capable of.

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u/Buffmyarm 4d ago

This doesnt mean anything though, how do u know that we are likely in one know even if we can run one

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u/Mortal-Region 4d ago edited 3d ago

Again, it's only likely if there are/will be many simulations. If there will never be an Earth 2026 simulation that is indistinguishable from reality, then there's no chance that you're in one. But if there will be 10 of them (at any time in the future), then it's only 1-in-11 that you're in the real 2026.

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u/Buffmyarm 4d ago

Ik, but im sayinf if we tommorow make a million sims why do the odds of us being in one goe up

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u/Time_Award3158 4d ago

No. The answer is no.

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u/SpatiaCaeli 4d ago

Quite honestly, we have no way to calculate the odds of anything we cannot possibly answer. The only question to me is simple: is the simulation hypothesis useful to science?

I think it might be. Just me, probably.

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u/YumeSystems 4d ago

When the numbers are too large people call it “reality”

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u/Sonotnoodlesalad 4d ago

> why is that the case?

Because Nick Bostrom thinks scifi premises lead to meaningful inquiry.

It's really fucking weird that people generally dismiss philosophy except for stuff like this.

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u/UDF2005 3d ago

Simulation is the religion of the day because we can conceptualize it; similar to how humans invented God, gods, or magic previously.

There’s no proof that we’re living in a simulation other than it seems likely that we’ll be able to create future simulations.

True ontology, however, is very likely well beyond any human comprehension.

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u/Buffmyarm 3d ago

Is it true that if we create simulations the odds of us go up to 100%, and if so why

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u/UDF2005 3d ago

I don’t buy that argument. There’s more physics that we don’t understand than that what we do. New physics will reveal new possibilities. And if we can million-x our intelligence, even more new possibilities will emerge.

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u/Open_Intern_643 3d ago edited 3d ago

It’s interesting because we’ve already shown that it’s easily possible for an advanced civilization to do through what we have. I’d say it’s like knowing spaceships were possible when we had early planes

We also get suspicions from parallels to how video games work and how they’re rendered (hard coded rules, wave particle duality/the double slit experiment)

Also consider what an “immortal” being would do when you have an infinite amount of time to pass. Literally everything. A god creating this universe sounds exactly the same as creating a simulation, because that would mean something exists outside of here. It’s just a plausible explanation as opposed to brushing it off to magic

We know for sure that when you die, existence must either stop, or keep going forever somehow (afterlife? Finding a path to our own immortality?) Both routes stay plausible

Also the reason why people are talking about how there could be a bunch of earth simulations is because once you can figure out one, you can keep doing it. Your simulations might even figure out simulations. But there would still only be one base “reality”. So you can have a trillion universes when you include the simulations, but everyone would feel like they’re in the real thing. When there can only be one

Again, we can’t know the final answer for sure yet, but logically it completely checks out

It doesn’t change anything though, life is still life. We’re all just trying to get an explanation

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u/Buffmyarm 2d ago

Doesnt make sence though? If i made a million earth simulations tommorow what does that say about the earth im living in now?

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u/Open_Intern_643 2d ago edited 2d ago

What doesn’t make sense?

If we assume there are a billion simulations and one baseline reality, but they all think they’re in reality, obviously almost everyone that’s experiencing the sensation of life has to be in a simulation

Your odds of being the one that’s in the original reality would be like 0.000001% or even much lower

If you’re in a simulation and create a simulation, that furthers the point. I said this when I said your simulations can figure out simulations

It could just be a rabbit hole. New simulated realities can potentially be easily created, the one original cannot

Reality -> Simulation -> Simulation -> Simulation -> Simulation -> Simulation

That line can literally go on forever and we ourselves could be at any point in that line

This is the direct answer to your big red button question

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u/Buffmyarm 2d ago

I know, but this is assuming nested simulations are possible, i am saying if we create simulations with no nesting, why does it mean we are likely in one

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u/Open_Intern_643 2d ago edited 2d ago

Im not assuming nested simulations, im assuming the universe could be infinite which makes endless simulations an inevitability given enough time

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u/tottasanorotta 2d ago

It makes it more likely if you think that that is what makes it more likely. As soon as we think that something is possible it immediately seems much more likely.

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u/Buffmyarm 2d ago

It becomes more likely but not almsot certain like the theory claims

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u/tottasanorotta 2d ago

Yeah I don't agree with the conclusion either. It's not too convincing.