Overview: The O'Moore County is a relatively new constituency, having only being contested separately from Offaly in 2016 and 2024, following a temporary reunification. This was historically the bailiwick of the Flanagan dynasty and Seán Fleming, and while the latter retained his seat last time out for FF, the title of FG standard-bearer went to the veteran Portlaoise councillor Willie Aird. Brian Stanley managed to hold on to his seat as an independent, with Sinn Féin trailing by a distance. No Labour candidate ran two years ago, while the Greens secured 2% of first preferences.

Local Elections: The county is effectively a blank slate for the party, with no candidates having stood in either 2019 or 2024. Two SF councillors were elected, but both have since left the party, while one Labour candidate was victorious in Portlaoise.

Verdict: The status quo is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, but the Greens won 4% of the vote here in 2016, so a similar percentage seems a realistic start to aim for. As for the locals, Portlaoise looks the most promising area for a prospective candidate.

Will be on holidays next week, so you'll have to wait a fortnight for an examination of Limerick City!

Overview: Chris Pender has been a regular reader of this thread, so I'm sure he's been waiting with added interest for this edition! Since the constituency's 1997 creation, it has largely been dominated by Labour's Wall dynasty and FF's Seán Ó Fearghail, with the latter's elevation to Ceann Comhairle reducing it to three contested seats for the last two elections. Martin Heydon (FG) and Sinn Féin have been returned relatively comfortably in both 2020 and 2024, and while Chris greatly improved the SD vote last time out, it was Mark Wall who ultimately unseated Cathal Berry.

Local Elections: In the three LEAs here (Athy, Kildare, Newbridge), Pender doubled his 2019 first preferences, and was re-elected comfortably in Newbridge, and while joined by Pat Balfe, he later resigned from the party after expressing concerns about defence. Athy is Labour's strongest area in the county, which largely explains why it's our only one where we failed to return a councillor.

Verdict: It seems very unlikely that three left TDs would be elected in a semi-rural four-seater, so in order for us to make a breakthrough here, the question is whether SF or Labour are more vulnerable? Locally, we should be well capable of regaining ground in Kildare, and while Athy certainly looks a stiffer challenge, contending for the final seat doesn't look out of the question, if our improved polling is reflected across the board.

Overview: Succession planning is never guaranteed to be seamless, so when Aidan Farrelly surprisingly (at the time) pipped Bill Clear at the selection convention to replace the retiring Catherine Murphy, there were concerns that a split in the socdem vote could jeopardise the seat. As it transpired, Aidan was comfortably elected second, just behind FF's James Lawless, while Clear finished seventh before his eventual elimination. Réada Cronin (SF), Joe Neville (FG) and Naoise Ó'Cearúil (FF) also had little difficulty in being returned to Leinster House.

Local Elections: The constituency consists of five LEAs - Celbridge, Clane, Leixlip, Maynooth, and Naas, with a Soc Dem councillor returned for each one in 2024, though Clear subsequently went independent before defecting to Independent Ireland about a year later.

Verdict: Farrelly has impressed political correspondents with his diligence on the Public Accounts Committee, and could well top the poll next time out, even with Lawless's Cabinet elevation. At local level, the priority will be to regain a councillor in Naas, which should be well within our capabilities, and potentially a second councillor in Celbridge, as Claire O'Rourke had double the FPV of the fourth representative in her ward.

Based on last weekend's Ireland Thinks poll:

28% Sinn Féin

14% Labour

12% Fine Gael

10% Green

10% Unsure/Didn't vote previously

9% Fianna Fáil

8% Independent

5% PBP-Solidarity

4% Other

1% Independent Ireland

0% Aontú

Overview: Having touched on Galway West during the by-election week, we now skip ahead to God's own county! The Kingdom was effectively Labour HQ during the Spring era, with firm seats in both old Kerry North and South constituencies, but it has been very much fallow ground for the centre-left since 2016, with the Healy-Raes dominant, SF holding one seat but relatively stagnant, and FF strongest in the northern half of the county. The big 2024 shock came when FG lost their seat, while FF doubled up through Michael Cahill (from Mid Kerry).

Local Elections: The Soc Dem banner made a belated debut appearance here two years ago, and while both Mistura Oyebanji in Tralee, along with Tim Clifford in Kenmare were political novices, both secured 3% of first preferences, which can be considered respectable in the circumstances.

Verdict: While winning a council seat would appear to be out of reach for now, the political history of the Tralee LEA is probably most favourable for us in the long-term, and with Mistura now chairperson of the county branch, she will surely run again in 2029. One wildcard strategy for Killarney would be a merger with the Kerry Independent Alliance, who broke from Labour over candidate selection - they mightn't require our help at council level, but would need national infrastructure and finances if aiming for a Dáil run.

Rather predictably, SD voters overwhelmingly approve of a future partnership that would involve either Labour or the Greens, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are firmly rejected (24/53, and 17/66 approval/disapproval respectively). Perhaps the most surprising aspect is that our supporters are split almost down the middle when it comes to Sinn Féin (45% in favour, 40% against), maybe showing that floating support is more hostile to the concept than rank-and-file members, or else lingering doubts as to how committed SF are to a left coalition? Elsewhere, SF themselves favour us as their preferred government partner (66%), while both FG (49%) and FF (34%) rank us as second choice after the current coalition, which, on the one hand, augurs well for transfers if/when required, but on the other suggests no party views us as a threat at present.

Overview: If the first half of this tour of Ireland saw predictions of seat retentions, gains or potential gains more often than not, then this second half promises distinctly leaner fare. Galway East is very much the "hurling side" of the county, covering Loughrea, Portumna, Gort and Ballinasloe, and doesn't have a significant recent history of centre-left TDs (after Clann na Talmhan collapsed in 1961), apart from Colm Keaveney in 2011, and SF's Louis O'Hara's election once the constituency reverted to four TDs. Our branch here was only briefly active, with Peter Reid contesting the 2020 general election, and Ken Campbell a 2019 local candidate in Ballinasloe.

Local Elections: Similarly, left parties have struggled to win council seats here in recent decades, with Keaveney holding a seat in Tuam in 2004 and 2009 being the height of recent success. Campbell secured 3% here in 2019, which, though unremarkable, was within touching distance of the second FF candidate in the LEA.

Verdict: Even winning a council seat here would be unrealistic for now, but securing 5-7% of first preferences and laying the groundwork for a GE candidate in the constituency would be an attainable target in 2029.

Overview: As we reach the halfway point in this series, we also come to our last capital constituency. Future FG leader Jennifer Carroll McNeill easily topped the poll here, but it took until the final count to decide the other three seats. That said, Conor Devlin (FF) and Barry Ward (FG) gradually pulled away from the pack, leaving the last seat between the various left parties. As such, our Hugo Mills narrowly missed out on the final slot to Richard Boyd-Barrett, with SF transfers ultimately making the difference.

Local Elections: That was all the more surprising, as Hugo failed to defend a Dún Laoghaire council seat held by the retiring David Quinn (not that one!), though John Hurley did gain one in Stillorgan. Other LEAs were less fruitful, despite decent challenges in Blackrock and Dundrum.

Verdict: If Dublin Mid-West is a must-win, and Dublin SW is one that can only be picked up if everything goes our way nationally, then Dún Laoghaire is probably somewhere midway between both extremes, in that it's possible, but not absolutely probable. As for the locals, Dundrum looks the most immediate prospect of a gain, though neither Blackrock nor Dún Laoghaire can be written off in that regard.

Overview: This used to be the old constituency of the Lenihan dynasty, Leo Varadkar, and Joe Higgins, and this time out, Jack Chambers (FF) and Paul Donnelly (SF) were both elected on the first count, with Emer Currie (FG) following on count two. Eventually, Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity) and Roderick O'Gorman (Green) took the final seats, and while Ellen Murphy performed respectably, she was never really in contention here.

Local Elections: The three Fingal LEAs mostly covered by this constituency are Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart, where Neil Dowling got 6% of FPVs, but was eliminated about halfway through the counts, Castleknock, where Luke Daly was bottom of the poll, and Ongar, where Ellen Murphy narrowly missed out on a seat on the final count.

Verdict: In truth, Aontú are probably closer to winning a seat here than we are, but if our local performance were to improve at the same rate as national polling, it couldn't be considered impossible. As for Fingal Council, Ongar definitely seems the most winnable target for 2029.

Overview: This five-seater, which used to be a four-seater until 2016, has generally seen three of its TDs on the left of the political spectrum since its expansion, with Seán Crowe and Paul Murphy long-term presences, and Labour's Ciarán Ahern taking the Green seat last time out. FF's John Lahart and FG's Colm Brophy have similarly been incumbents for the last decade, and while Ross O'Mullane did significantly improve on our 2020 tally, we were never realistically in contention last time out.

Local Elections: This constituency covers Rathfarnham-Templeogue, where Justin Sinnott is a South Dublin county councillor, Firhouse, where we narrowly missed out on a seat on the final count, and two Tallaght LEAs where we surprisingly failed to field a candidate in either.

Verdict: Even though it wouldn't take much of an improvement to be contenders here, it still seems somewhat of an outside prospect compared to other Dublin constituencies, with perhaps Labour the most vulnerable. Firhouse should be picked up at the next locals, and Tallaght has to be a priority for the future, given its huge population.

Overview: This constituency has been generally considered to be the most left-wing in the country, having been the long-term bailiwicks of Bríd Smith, Joan Collins and Aeongus Ó Snodaigh, with the Greens' Patrick Costello filling the last berth in 2020. Following Smith's retirement, SF doubled their seat tally, Catherine Ardagh (FF) was the first TD elected, and our Jen Cummins took the second seat after marathon counts.

Local Elections:

Dublin South Central broadly covers both the South West Inner City, where Cummins took the third of five seats, and Ballyfermot-Drimnagh, where our candidate secured 4% of first preferences, but was never really in the running.

Verdict: If Jen can come through an incredibly crowded pack of contenders after less than six months as a councillor, her position should be far more secure in 2029. Looking at the locals, consolidation seems the most likely scenario, as while the last Ballyfermot councillor was elected on 8% of first preferences, that was after a similarly convoluted count to what transpired in the GE.

Overview Sinéad Gibney's success here was perhaps one of our bigger surprises of the last GE, both due to a relative underperformance in the European campaign, and because Catherine Martin was expected to be one of the few Green survivors, even with the Dublin tide against the party. As it was, hoovering up left transfers ensured we were elected second here, after Neale Richmond, with his FG running mate and FF's Shay Brennan filling the other seats.

Local Elections

The constituency covers the Dundrum and Stillorgan LEAs of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Council, with our only councillor for the local authority in the latter area, and the party coming ninth in the seven-seater former ward last time out.

Verdict:

With Sinéad enjoying a high media profile since becoming a TD, her seat should be relatively safe. As for the local elections, the local strength of Labour, the Greens and Independents will make it difficult to target gains, but it certainly doesn't look an impossible task.

Overview: This is one of only three constituencies where there has been continual Social Democrat representation since the party's foundation, but it was perhaps unsurprising that the party vote would fall somewhat following Róisín Shortall's retirement. That said, Rory Hearne was the first TD elected here, edging out Dessie Ellis (SF), while FF's Paul McAuliffe ultimately won the final seat, after Noel Rock transfers helped him past the SF running mate.

Local Elections: Dublin North-West covers both Artane-Whitehall LEAs and Ballymun (though the former also extends into Dublin Central), and there were three SD councillors elected between the two areas in 2024.

Verdict: Rory very much has a safe Dáil seat here, and while there doesn't appear to be much scope in the locals to add to the councillor tally, a second candidate may be added in Ballymun if polling continues to bloom.

Overview Created for the 2002 election, this was once the home turf of Mary Harney, before coming under Sinn Féin domination after they first doubled up in 2020. Emer Higgins (FG) and Shane Moynihan (FF) then followed in 2024, but it was almost uniquely two Eoin Ó'Broins, as our candidate was narrowly edged out of the final seat by Paul Gogarty.

Local Elections: Our Eoin ultimately took the fourth seat out of seven in Clondalkin on the final count, and while we were never in the running in Lucan, no candidate ran in Palmerstown.

Verdict: Even if the current polling boom were to slightly deflate, this is arguably the first Dublin gain we should targeting, given the margin was so tight two years ago. It would take roughly 8% of first preferences to be in contention for councillors in both Lucan and Palmerstown, so certainly possible in both cases, even if nothing can ever be taken for granted.