It has started

[u/EmperorRoko]

That hormuz letter guy ended up being right off the norfolk plant signalling this

[u/EmperorRoko]

iran said their response to future attacks would be disproportionate in nature, we might see one of the strongest attacks since day 1 and 2

[u/HopYuck → u/EmperorRoko]

Iran needs to go full send like now. They can't keep letting themselves get strangled and hit piecemeal.

[u/No-Location-3438 → u/HopYuck]

Do we know if they actually are getting strangled? I think they're fine, I assume the US is just dropping big bombs on rocks and shit in the mountains and desert.

"Fine" was poor word choice on my part 

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/No-Location-3438]

They're not fine. They are winning but it's not just rocks being destroyed, it's people, infrastructure, and the economy.

[u/DayofthelivingBread → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

Yeah the hogs seem to take particular pleasure in hitting civilian targets.

Even though this is an unfocused farce it will hurt real people just trying to live their lives.

[u/PurpleTangent → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

I said this in another comment but, no. If you were to say this 3-4 months ago then yep absolutely true, but it does not reflect the reality of the situation on the ground today.

Iran is fine. These are the first strikes in THIRTY DAYS, and they hit what? A couple of launch platform for Shaheds?

Iran has forced a cost equation on the US that the Americans cannot stomach. You bomb our infrastructure, we black out the region. You bomb our civilans, we strike your airbases. It's been genuine months since Iran's civilian infrastructure was the main target.

Now the US just does these pathetic pokes and prods against the shore.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/PurpleTangent]

If they black out the region. They havent done that yet so we are just making guesses and imagining futures.

Their economy is not fine. I dont know where some people here are getting that from. Im not saying they are on the brink of collapse, but they will need a strategy or strategic ally to stop the US from doing this every few weeks/months. 

Iran has threatened that but they havent done it. I dont know why, and Im not making any guesses about what they will do. But any study of past wars reveals that there are usually all sorts of arrangements happening behind the scenes that we dont know about. Obviously that must be happening here too. How will blacking out the region affect China or Russia for example? How would they respond? 

[u/PurpleTangent → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

"Fine" is a relative term here. Iran has limited options on the table, and "fine" is about as good as they can be at this time. Inflation is bad and waterway transport is restricted but there's a lot of good things that have happened recently.

• The BRI high speed rail connection to China finished last year. Currently they're using this trade corridor extensively.

• Iran has greatly increased its truck-based imports and exports to Pakistan since the start of the blockade.

• Iran trades with Russia thru the Caspian

They're not quite as isolated as the western media empire would have you believe. The blockade is also incredibly porous. How the fuck are they supposed to blockade the entire gulf of Oman and Indian ocean with a single CAG?

they will need a strategy or strategic ally to stop the US from doing this every few weeks/months.

Okay, and? What exactly is the US accomplishing with these strikes?

People keep bringing this up but the military situation for the current phase of the war is basically resolved. The US can keep doing this exact thing, sure, but they can't even enter the Iranian airspace to strike strategic targets. Their choice is either strike the shoreline, or do limited airspace entry standoff attacks (except they're almost entirely out of AGMs whose production lines doesn't even exist anymore.)

Iran has threatened that but they havent done it.

Correct, that genie you cannot put back in the bottle which is why no one wants to test this specific theory. It's straight up M.A.D. As for the Iranian partners... Russia would probably shit itself in glee with its new found oil monopoly. China trusts Iran to handle their own shit and knows they wont do this unless there's no other choice.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/PurpleTangent]

I do not think they are isolated, that is why I mentioned Iran and Russia. Im saying Iran and Russia may not want them to black out the Gulf States which is their escalation ladder. If they dont do it, that threat is empty, the bluff has been called. That means they have to pursue a strategy of economic attrition if that is off the table- the US keeps doing what they are doing. The US is playing this game on both ends, it's attrition in Europe too. I agree with the assessment that eventually the US loses, assuming nothing changes, but I think it will take much longer and cause much more damage to Iran than people here are accepting. Lots of people explained why the Ukraine war couldnt possibly go on so long as well with similar arguments and yet it's been years and hundreds of thousands of people have died. 

Also there is the fact that there is no one to stop Israel from escalating, even self destructively, if they think the US may abandon the region.

[u/PurpleTangent → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

Agreed, Iran themselves definitely don't want to black out the region. If they do that they'll never have relations with their neighbours ever again. Iran has been extremely vocal about how they'd like to use this as an opportunity to reset the relations for their neghbours. They view the Muslim countries as literally a brotherhood that shood be stood beside.

This might be focusing a little too hard on the "black out the region" point, which is more or less the FINAL rung on the ladder. IMO this will not be climbed to unless there's a catastrophe, but yes, who knows if it's a bluff or not. Either way the US hasn't called the bluff, and during the hot periods of the war there were enough "tit-for-tat" power plant and oil infrastructure trades that I think the US believes them.

The more important point I was trying to make is that "Iran has forced a cost equation on the US that the Americans cannot stomach" and this applies to every step of the ladder they've been climbing. Each rung has been more expensive than the last, for example we can look at the Bab El Mandeb which now has Saudi Arabia tied up. They're requesting American support, but America doesn't want to support them any more than they are now because that would be American ships can't cross the Bab either. So, the US is far more trapped by the current escalation rate than Iran is.

There's so many levels and layers to this which is hard to unpack, so we need to look at the actual material reality of their sitation versus where they were a few months ago. Things have improved since the hot war has cooled. Each successive time America tries to strike Iran they get less and less important targets. Are they in good shape? Hell no, but, Iran is fine.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/PurpleTangent]

I'm a little confused by your response because you keep talking about the hot phase of the war as if it's in the past, but the whole reason for the OP and the context of this thread is that the war has just become hot again. We have yet to see how much Iran will follow through on their threats, I guess we'll know in the next day or two, but I agree your overall logic is correct and they will not go all out and just keep doing this forced cost equation strategy with all its regional implications as you mention. What Im arguing is that if this is the case and they dont go all out in the Gulf States as they've threatened, then it is essentially just an attrition war. The US will continue until they and Europe are so financially squeezed by both the cost of the two wars and the effects of the energy crisis causes a US economic collapse. Iran will continue until food inflation, petrol shortages and military spending causes their economy to collapse. Which will happen first? 

Only in reality it wont be that straightforward since Russia and China's interests are also involved, and Israel will not tolerate a winning Iran nor a departing US, and they have nukes. 

I honestly dont see a possibility for Iran to just win and US / Israel accept this and take their toys and go home and the world carries on as if it's 5 years ago. Im not trying to make predictions either, but I think it's going to be a sea change for a lot of the world, and Iran could emerge the regionally dominant power or they could be totally destabilized. 

[u/Famous-Wrongdoer-14 → u/No-Location-3438]

Uh, the american blockade does seem to take its toll on Irans economy, and how much pain the iranian population is willing to take right now is anyones guess.

Dont get me wrong, i hope the great Satan breaks off another horn here, but i dont think Iran is "just fine" either.

[u/BILLCLINTONMASK → u/Famous-Wrongdoer-14]

People on here are extremely delusional about the reality of Iran’s situation.

[u/slabanddabs → u/BILLCLINTONMASK]

Ok well what’s the situation?

[u/ftp67 → u/slabanddabs]

Theyre fighting against the most violent nation and their angry baby on earth with the largest army on earth and they will get zero armed support from any other nation.

Propaganda is so thorough and the international community is so toothless (see: Gaza) I don't think anything would happen if Iran was nuked. Just thoughts prayers and sanctions maybe

[u/CarlosMarcos1848 → u/ftp67]

For sure there would be countless messages of condemnation circulating through all the international bodies in all directions if Trump nuked Iran, but if there were actual meaningful international sanctions placed on the US, I would have to conclude that god herself intervened personally.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/CarlosMarcos1848]

Trump wouldnt have to do it, Israel would. And Israel would only do it if it looked like the US would abandon them for real this time. And the US could be forced to do that if Iran really did black out the Gulf States as they threatened to do if the US kept bombing them. Which the US just did because if something doesnt change, the world is facing an energy crisis during an El Nino year. And the US doesnt know how to change anything without accepting a severe decline in their own global position. 

Now at any step along the way, some other thing may happen but that is the current argument for nuking Iran. I'm not that smart or psychic so maybe I'm just lacking imagination here, but I dont see any possibility that includes Israel just saying "oh well, we accept Iran won" and carrying on. It's not possible that they can continue to exist in a middle east with a strong Iran and realligned Gulf States. So assuming there is a future, it cant include Israel as it is and yet also they have nukes, so someone smarter thab me will have to explain what else could possibly happen. 

[u/Acceptable_Seesaw112 → u/slabanddabs]

They have been in a economically precarious situation for decades because of a mix of americas brutal sanctions and the government further giving into the tehran neoliberal elite further privatizing the economy and relying heavily on global trade

Edit: something like 70-80% of government services were privatized into the hands of the investor bourgeois class (discard this, im wrong, a large part was privatized but not 70-80%)

[u/BILLCLINTONMASK → u/slabanddabs]

The situation is certainly not “fine,” that’s for sure.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/slabanddabs]

Look all critical support to Iran and the IRGC and the Houthis - they are clearly the good guys here in the fight against ISIS, KSA and Israel a few years ago, as well as the US and Israel now.

But Iran is ruled by a fundamentalist government that is broadly unpopular. The fact that the majority of Iranians support the government over Western imperialists and zionists doesnt mean they arent vulnerable at all. There are also less organic internal threats, obviously supported by the US and IIsrael. It's a real govenrment, not a prop or a one man dictatorship as the US supposedly underestimated, but that doesnt mean they are incapable of falling. How long can they sustain hits to their infrastructure, collapse of their economy, food inflation, petrol spikes, casualties, etc? The answer is until the end as they have no other option. But that is going to cause public unrest and thriving black markets with its associated organized crime just like anywhere, and then you get political vulnerabilities and resultant crack downs. These are humans, not superheroes. 

If it's going to be a war of economic attrition (whose economy collapses first) then are we really sure it will be the US? What is to stop the US from doing this on again, off again bombing for months- the US doesnt have the weapons it needs to sustain it nonstop, but if it just does these cycles of attacks and truces? Will Iran really respond by hitting the Gulf States? IDK.

And also this war is tied up in what happens with Ukraine. Does Putin and Xi really want a collapse of the US or just a slow decline and reorganization? Would they throw Iran under the bus? IDK. We're in a new world.

[u/Pallington → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

I think the obvious answer is not to hit the gulf states except to remove US installations and then hit israel.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/Pallington]

They've already done that.

[u/Pallington → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

they could do it again, and more ig? i mean if the US is really determined to starve its own fleets just to maintain a presence and keep bombing there's not much iran can do without MRBMs/LRBMs, which is why china wants to be able to hit guam ig.

[u/brometheus3 → u/BILLCLINTONMASK]

“My hatred of Evil Amerikkka outweighs any reality or anything because based Iran got this and their population is unique good while Americas military is uniquely bad” is a pretty common Internet refrain based on vibes and being contrarian

[u/AutoVonBizMarkee → u/brometheus3]

I mean, Iran can be suffering but still be able to resist because they have been under all sorts of stresses for a long time and outlasted them, and the US military can also be unique in that it is incredibly large and expensive, but also unable to project power globally like it did before. Or you know Iran already lost the strait is open US wins.

[u/im_the_scat_man → u/AutoVonBizMarkee]

Guy in bunker vs giant roidoid with a rapidly enlarging heart

[u/Stock_Tell7454 → u/Famous-Wrongdoer-14]

How much pain is the Iranian population willing to take? We're at 183 days and counting of patriotic marches in the street. I don't think Iran's getting ready to give up any time soon.

Iranian resolve is much more likely to break along the lines of the 'reformist' faction of their leadership than it is among the populace.

[u/EmperorRoko → u/No-Location-3438]

their target bank is empty since iran destroyed almost third of their reaper drone airfleet

[u/slabanddabs → u/EmperorRoko]

If you’re paying attention to the DoD money in the states at the moment, it would appear that we are getting ready to deploy a bunch of “shahed” copy cat missiles. They specifically plan to transition to a “new meta” in how they fight wars so a depleted Patriot missile stock can be afforded. It’s a big gamble in my opinion if it will be effective. They want to bring the Ukraine strategy to the Middle East soon.

[u/PurpleTangent → u/slabanddabs]

Okay, which bases exactly are they going to launch these from? The LUCAS has a shorter effective range than the Shahed so they can't use Jordan or the entity. There's also a roughly 0% chance the GCCs are going to let the US use their airspace for this. So, this is frankly of no consequence.

The US keeps claiming it's victory is "just over the horizon" - they just need their next game changer and then we've got this. It's just red meat for the hogs to slop on.

[u/Pickled247 → u/PurpleTangent]

Bahrain seems pretty keen on letting the Americans use their territory to launch attacks. Whether or not they actually have a say in the matter is a whole 'nother thing.

[u/PurpleTangent → u/Pickled247]

HIMARS from Bahrain has been a constant thru the whole war, yep!

But if they were to become the sole source for LUCAS attacks across Iran? Bahrain would be a crater.

EDIT: Note that the HIMARS from Bahrain can literally only hit the very bottom left corner of Iran. Like, the range extends from Bahrain to Bushehr. Not far at all.

[u/Far_Piano4176 → u/PurpleTangent]

Bahrain is perhaps the most vulnerable of the GCC states, too. Iran can take out their bridge and aluminum plant at any time and Bahrain will be effectively and comprehensively fucked. 

[u/Stock_Tell7454 → u/Far_Piano4176]

Just want to add that in addition to geographic vulnerability, Bahrain is also a majority Shia country, and so perhaps more vulnerable to internal unrest in this conflict than other local allies.

[u/Pickled247 → u/Far_Piano4176]

Their extreme vulnerability to Iranian retaliation makes their involvement so baffling. Fair do's at the very beginning, they could've been suckered in by the US/Israel, but this far into the conflict and having seen the damage Iran is capable of dealing, what do they actually gain from all this?

[u/slabanddabs → u/PurpleTangent]

Your still thinking of last gen missile tech tho. They will not rely on big radar guided weapon systems anymore. It’s all camera tech.

[u/Spirited-Reputation6 → u/No-Location-3438]

Just the last few munitions…
https://giphy.com/gifs/XqpnXaeZPnupy

[u/CarlosMarcos1848 → u/No-Location-3438]

There is no country on earth that could be totally fine after months of bombing and blockading on their main economic artery.

The Iranians can realistically keep this fight up longer than the Americans, but it’s still in their best interest (along with the Americans’ own best interest) for the war to end as soon as possible.

The main problem is that the republicans cannot take an official settlement in Iran’s favor to the midterms this year or to the 2028 elections. It’s probably the only lever they even have right now. The economy is way way too fucked to be brought back to normal within 2 years, every week a new food gets recalled for causing illnesses that haven’t been relevant for centuries, they’re building loud ass data centers in populated neighborhoods and burning through all our freshwater to do so, they’re scraping at the bottom of the strategic oil reserves, and also they were all on the island.

The only thing they can use to convince themselves domestic political victory is possible is military victory in Iran. It doesn’t matter that every second they drag this on, the more they will eventually have to give Iran at the end of the day, they just need to keep it going until it’s the next democratic president’s problem to deal with. It seems anyone in the military who points out how stupid this is gets fired.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/CarlosMarcos1848]

I think it's about more than the elections. I dont think most voters care about Iran that much. I think it's all about Israel at the immediate level and about not having the capacity to accept a new global role at the larger ruling class level.

[u/BayesianBits → u/No-Location-3438]

Conditions are bad but they are accustomed to enduring hardship. Unlike Americans.

[u/ftp67 → u/HopYuck]

Genuinely what does full send mean for them? Against Israel? It's odd because they have taken out many of our bases so idk if that means taken out our aircraft carriers, bases, or just our proxy

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/ftp67]

Im not making any predictions, but they have an escalation ladder and the higher rungs include targeting all Gulf State countries that are cooperating with US/Israel. So that would be their oil fields, refineries, power grids, desalination plants, block all oil exports, etc. They outlined all this and told MBS directly that this would be their response, similar warnings to the other Gulf States. Supposedly it resulted in some pushback of those states against the US/Israel and also some arrangements with Oman and UAE. 

[u/ftp67 → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

Well fingers crossed

[u/PurpleTangent → u/HopYuck]

Iran's fine. Your statement would have been true like 3-4 months ago, but the military situation is basically resolved. These are the first strikes in THIRTY DAYS, and they hit what? A couple of launch platform for Shaheds?

The US takes pot shots on their islands and along the shoreline but these strikes have no actual impact on their war economy.

Full send - while it's fun to think about - just means that Israel re-joins the war and the US + Israel tag team to start bombing their civilian infrastructure again. Iran is currently in the best possible situation it could be considering all the moving pieces around it. They have the upper hand.

Quick reminder to the Americans: Your media is not being truthful, especially when they talk about Iran's economic situation. Iranians get western news too, and it's part of the Hybrid warfare machine to push to demoralize the Iranian populace. I'm not trying to say things are rosy there, but it's not the catastrophe that the west makes it seem.

[u/emmaroberts_steponme → u/HopYuck]

you cant be serious

[u/spidermonk → u/emmaroberts_steponme]

Yeah I don't try and give Iran backseat driving tips at this point they're clearly better at this than I would be.

[u/Pickled247 → u/EmperorRoko]

I believe the Iranians still have a good few cards yet to be played in this fight, be it indigenous creations, or tech lent to them from China or Russia. Draw the yanks in, make them think you are weak. Then when boots are on the ground, let loose with everything you've got. I'm thinking they'll do something like make a serious attempt at targeting Diego Garcia or possibly European based US bases hosting forces engaging in hostilities.

[u/ml-maitreya → u/Pickled247]

Dude Europe is going to be begging for Iranian oil come winter. Iran isn't going to piss off their newest potential customer. They're just going to hit US bases in the ME again, but harder.

[u/Pickled247 → u/ml-maitreya]

Pretty sure most of the world will be interested in Iranian oil soon enough. Push comes to shove I'd imagine that they will prioritise non-hostile nations when it comes to oil sales. The economic pain needs to be felt by the US & its allies who stood back and did nothing to prevent this situation from occurring. And at the end of the day, the European nations can't do anything to Iran that the Americans haven't already tried and failed at.

[u/ml-maitreya → u/Pickled247]

There's a split between the US and Europe on waging war against Iran as illustrated by Spain and other countries closing their airspace to US military flights in the lead up to the first US attack. I'm thinking Iran would rather widen this gulf between the US and Europe than shrink it.

[u/Pickled247 → u/ml-maitreya]

If we look at this conflict as part of a larger multi-domain conflict, i.e. early stages of a world war. The alliances being formed between Russia, China and Iran aren't going to be for show. Each of the nations in that alliance will have a role in weakening the hard and soft power of western nations, and I think we are reaching that inflection point where the heat is going to keep getting turned up to force the hand of the current hegemon and its allies.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/ml-maitreya]

Yeah but they can find ways to get it. People said the same thing about Europe after the Ukraone invasion and they just bought Russian oil via India.

[u/EmperorRoko]

[u/dr_srtanger2love → u/EmperorRoko]

The US has no plan; they've dug themselves into a hole they can't get out of without being humiliated into signing a deal favorable to Iran.

[u/PumpJockyTwerks4Tips → u/dr_srtanger2love]

That's going to happen anyway at this point, it's just a matter of when.

Just watch this get dragged out until 2028 when president-elect Newsom gives his first press conference to reaffirm the US's commitment to winning the war in Iran.

[u/GatoDiablo99 → u/PumpJockyTwerks4Tips]

Twenty years later …. President Barron Trump executes the full withdrawal of American forces from Iran

[u/Boymoder_Glowie → u/GatoDiablo99]

And signs his plan for UBI in the form of free vbux every month for every American

[u/im_the_scat_man → u/Boymoder_Glowie]

Ironically fortnight will be the only store you can't spend those at after apple v epic went hot in 2040

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/GatoDiablo99]

It will never escalate to American forces being sent to Iran in the first place.

ETA: the people downvoting me really think that the military that cant maintain an aircraft carrier and that is currently operating out of hotels in the region because their bases have all been bombed is going to launch a full invasion and deployment of troops? That a few of you could be that dumb, ok, but it's enough that you must be misunderstanding me? The US is not deploying troops to Iran. It will be unmanned drone strikes and missiles etc all the way to the end.

[u/Top-Purchase-3680 → u/PumpJockyTwerks4Tips]

Please god don’t let this be true

[u/slabanddabs → u/dr_srtanger2love]

They’re banking on drone warfare in 2027

[u/NOLA-Bronco → u/dr_srtanger2love]

Only choice is further up the escalation ladder!

Backing out is for pussies, only way forward is thru!

America's 100 years of humiliation is upon us!

Thank you comrade Trump for your steadfast dedication to this mission

[u/PMmePowerRangerMemes → u/dr_srtanger2love]

Sun Tzu said “build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.” I think about that a lot

[u/TarquinusSuperbus000 → u/EmperorRoko]

It's the same plan as Vietnam. Kill as many people as possible and hope they surrender.

[u/M_G → u/TarquinusSuperbus000]

It will surely work this time!

[u/DayofthelivingBread → u/EmperorRoko]

Deplete the weapons reserves so we can spend a bunch of money refilling them. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Doesn’t matter if they work or not.

[u/ebk_errday → u/DayofthelivingBread]

Saw a thing by Abby Martin claiming they actually do this. Even if a war is over, whatever munitions are left over are intentionally blown up and not returned to stockpile for later use so the military industrial complex can ask for the budget to be replenished the following year, if not increased. This whole machine is sick!

[u/DayofthelivingBread → u/ebk_errday]

Gotta use that budget or lose it soldier! Fiscal year is ending soon.

[u/dorekk → u/ebk_errday]

Yeah this is in her excellent movie Earth's Greatest Enemy.

[u/ebk_errday → u/dorekk]

Thanks for sharing

[u/Stock_Tell7454 → u/EmperorRoko]

I really think the plan might be to keep poking until the random number generator hands them a Gulf of Tonkin incident. A burning destroyer or something would instantly convert a bunch of anti-war Americans into vengeance-fueled chuds, and build consensus towards a more sustained military effort.

I still can't see the logic though, as it assumes that Iran will give the US the time and space to tighten the screws militarily.

[u/heckadeca → u/EmperorRoko]

It’s so crazy it just might work

[u/liewchi_wu888]

So this is how things are going to go, there will be periodic strikes followed by lulls when America bitches out?

[u/dr_srtanger2love → u/liewchi_wu888]

It's been practically like this since the beginning of the conflict, hence Iran retaliating and the US asking for time. And the cycle repeats itself.

[u/Calmcentreofmisery → u/dr_srtanger2love]

I've got a feeling Trump just wants to keep this bubbling along until the GOP are merked in the mid-terms. So, HE never lost. It's the communist appeasers in Congress that LOST. Please don't say he lost.

[u/liewchi_wu888 → u/[deleted]]

If there was someone really willing to just sign a fucking surrender document to the Iranians and end this war, they may well actually deserve it.

[u/Actual_Violinist290 → u/liewchi_wu888]

Israeli elections next month; Bibi needs a "win" to appease their fully rabid voting base

[u/PumpJockyTwerks4Tips → u/Actual_Violinist290]

Instigating attacks on your own people to get them to vote reactionary. Old school classic electioneering.

[u/redabyss9 → u/Actual_Violinist290]

Switching him out for a different genocidaire wouldn't make much difference.

[u/CarlosMarcos1848 → u/liewchi_wu888]

I feel like unless a democratic house majority after the midterms is ready to go full Roundhead (lmao as if) we are going to get at least 2 more years of this bullshit.

[u/EmperorRoko]

[u/doblefantasma]

jfc, donny and the pedos are not giving up are they?

[u/Kranken_DeHogge → u/doblefantasma]

I mean the US kept fighting in Vietnam about 7-8 years after the military determined the war was unwinnable

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/Kranken_DeHogge]

I keep thinking about all the taped phone calls when Nixon is just ranting (often drunk) about how there must be a way to bomb them enough to win. Eventually he decides they need to blow up dams on the Red River but Kissinger talks him out of it because killing a quarter million people all at once, out in the open, seemed too much.

This time around, I dont know if the US even has the bombs to carry this out too long, but also I dont think there's anyone to talk them out of a target that could cause high casualties either. And clearly you can in fact kill that many people out in the open. OTOH Trump seems to care way less about everything than Nixon did- he mainly just wants to enrich himself it seems.

[u/redabyss9 → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

There have been news reports of people talking Trump out of using nukes multiple times

[u/Tricky-Ad7897 → u/redabyss9]

Thought he was supposed to be the n word guy

[u/redstarjedi → u/redabyss9]

I actually think if he finally orders it we will get a officers coup.

[u/BoardGamesEnjoyer → u/redstarjedi]

I don't disagree, but American officers only come in two brands - wimpy pussies or nazis.

The nazis will not care about breaking the global nuclear restraint. The wimps will shit all over the place and write 20 books about how they couldn't do anything and just had to go along, if they didn't want to get fired so that their treatlerite spawn could go to college. There is no middle there.

American military hasn't got the balls to go against their own superiors, let alone conduct a coup in the age of Palantir.

BTW the day 'tactical nukes' are deployed, its over. America will have destroyed and genocided Iran, but everyone in the world will be free to build them up forever afterwards.

[u/redstarjedi → u/BoardGamesEnjoyer]

There could be Air Force command that's simply refuses the to carry out the order.

Then he'd have to fire everyone and go down to those smaller Nazi group you mentioned.

I'm hoping by then it would have leaked and then somehow stopped.

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/BoardGamesEnjoyer]

Nah Americans are also human so there has to be ambitious and shrewd men in the military who would act opportunistically, and there have always been factional disputes with plots and resources. There just hasn't been much opportunity or need for an officers coup, though I'd argue the JFK assassination and the eventual removal of Nixon were palace coups. Trump pissing off the military slowly for years could be an organizing opportunity, and a true attempt to use nukes could be a catalyst for a final push.

But I think it will be Israel that uses nukes, not the US. If they are used at all.

[u/PumpJockyTwerks4Tips → u/Kranken_DeHogge]

Not just fighting, but bombing targets across Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia every 9 minutes on average until the formal surrender. Dropping more munitions on those countries than all parties combined dropped throughout all of WWII.

[u/redabyss9 → u/doblefantasma]

They can't figure out how to extract with a win.

[u/EmperorRoko]

[u/fidelcasbro17 → u/EmperorRoko]

Ohh boy this one's gonna sting

[u/Champigne → u/EmperorRoko]

They're largely inaccurate. Hard for a missile to hit a moving target.

[u/whiteriot0906 → u/Champigne]

I suspect it’s really hard to hit a ship without satellite guidance. A drone spotter would get shot down. Beyond that I guess you’d have to rely on some kind of radar which can easily be jammed.

I could be wrong this is ignorant conjecture on my part. But it’d be absolutely wild if they could actually land a hit.

[u/Champigne → u/whiteriot0906]

No, you're right. Last week's episode of The War Nerd goes into the topic at length. Titled "Why Hasn't Iran Sunk a US Aircraft Carrier."

[u/Terza_Rima → u/Champigne]

Super interesting pair of episodes with Amerikanets, worth a listen

[u/Tricky-Ad7897 → u/Champigne]

A single missile is basically a warning shot, I think ashm only has a chance if it's a saturation attack or a handful of hypersonics, both of which would be pretty fruitless endeavors for Iran.

[u/1slinkydink1]

The lashing out of a dying empire. Sad to see.

[u/maos_cigarette]

This is like watching someone stuck in an arm bar and they refuse to tap out.

My comrades, I think we are about to witness a metaphorical arm get figuratively snapped.

[u/Dutch_Calhoun → u/maos_cigarette]

I'd just stand up!

[u/RIP_Greedo]

How does this signal anything new? This has been the ebb and flow of the whole thing for months. Maybe I just don’t get it?

[u/PiousLiar → u/RIP_Greedo]

Supposedly Norfolk had some security changes recently (who was allowed on base, gates closing or whatever), desalination plants in America’s favorite were closed down, and more in the past day or two. Anyway, Norfolk apparently only did something similar right at the start of the conflict, at the start of the Ukraine/Russian shitshow, and a couple other key moments. So rumors started up that this could be an inflection point in the conflict

[u/ivealwaysbeenyou → u/RIP_Greedo]

It’s Monday if that makes any difference to you

[u/NelsonJamdela]

Drunarcs eating

[u/Edward_Zachary → u/NelsonJamdela]

feckles in absolute shambles rn

[u/imperfectlycertain → u/NelsonJamdela]

not until the 27th - everything that hits before then is evidence against AoB

[u/CrniBombardera → u/imperfectlycertain]

this is noise, fire from heaven in october

[u/AdhesivenessOk9434 → u/imperfectlycertain]

Keep the faith trust the plan

[u/Boymoder_Glowie]

Bold of them to do it when the markets are open

Then again traders are cattle

[u/WuchangGuilao]

https://giphy.com/gifs/RSOUOj8H9A3Xq

[u/EmperorRoko]

[u/1slinkydink1 → u/EmperorRoko]

Stick in own bike spokes.

Why would Iran do this?

[u/These_Bullfrog3571 → u/EmperorRoko]

They cant tell all Americans in Israel to evacuate.

[u/qaopjlll → u/These_Bullfrog3571]

After all, it IS the only safe space on the planet for Jews and non-Jewish Zionists. (Weeajoos? Like weeaboos but for Judaism? Ah fuck it NVM)

[u/One-Fun-6075 → u/qaopjlll]

Heeabrews, Weeabrews?

[u/TrillbillySocialist]

Latest messaging:

Chairman of Iran’s National Security Committee, Ibrahim Azizi:

Iran's response was more than just a warning. It was an official declaration that Iran's deterrence doctrine has evolved.

The message is clear: the power of its armed forces will guarantee the enemy's regret.

We know that you acknowledged this yesterday in your highly confidential emergency meeting.

[u/flightrisky]

"Started"?

[u/Monkt]

The war that started 6 months ago started?

[u/Gnast]

What is “it”?

[u/AutoVonBizMarkee → u/Gnast]

It’s it.

[u/normalwomanOnline → u/AutoVonBizMarkee]

you want our oil but you can't have it

[u/EmperorRoko → u/Gnast]

usa's attack

[u/Gnast → u/EmperorRoko]

Like what we’ve been doing?

[u/Embarrassed-Wish-749]

i’m getting merried in Adana soon I hope to see some Iranian fireworks on the US base

[u/PiousLiar]

Not seeing any other posts about this… wonder if it’s still too fresh or this is the big one and posts are getting suppressed while the attacks are in progress

[u/MaxiRobesppiere]

I continue to worry that the US/Israel will use a nuke

[u/HarryBallsanya420]

https://giphy.com/gifs/nKFXQkxLRiEhy

[u/nummpad]

wedding bombing confirmed

[u/StarboundAllisten]

Wasn't there an astrology guy predicting this shit? 

[u/The-Neat-Meat]

weird comment section itt