r/askmath • u/That_guy84636 • 1d ago

Probability Game outcome

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The game is Pokémon, protect (and spiky shield) have a 2/3 chance of failing when used twice (which is the case) and blizzard has a 70% chance of hitting.
What is the chance of neither Pokémon protecting and both getting hit by blizzard?

5 Upvotes

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4

u/nutshells1 1d ago

2/3 * 2/3 * 0.7 * 0.7? these are all independent rolls

5

u/Elekitu 1d ago

2/3 * 2/3 * 0.70 * 0.70 = roughly 21.78%

1

u/That_guy84636 1d ago

Thx I forgot how to do that

2

u/Zyxplit 1d ago

The probability of them failing is independent of each other, so (2/3)2 = 4/9. The probability of blizzard hitting is 70% or 7/10. It hitting them is independent of each other (i think) so (7/10)2 = 49/100.

So the final result is (4*49)/(9*100) = 49/225. A bit less than a quarter.