We’re all familiar with this prophecy:
“And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands around your pale white throat and choke the life from you.”
AFFC - Cersei VIII
The valonqar has been a subject of widespread debate for over two decades, but most people don’t know that GRRM gave the blueprint to solve this mystery in 2012:
"In the Wars of the Roses... there was one lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle, and he was superstitious of that sort of thing, so he never came anywhere near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle [at St. Albans] and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! So you know? That's the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that."
- GRRM, interview with Adria's News, October 2012
It’s not difficult to see which character the Duke explicitly parallels: Cersei Lannister
- both are given a prophecy
- the prophecy foretells their death
- their death is attributed to a specific object
- that object instills paranoia
- that paranoia drives them to attempt circumventing the prophecy
And we know how the Duke’s fate ultimately played out: the object of his death was figurative and therefore not what he perceived it to be
If we follow this blueprint, Cersei’s fate becomes clear: the object of her death will be figurative and therefore not what she perceives it to be
There is only one object in the ASOIAF universe that could be the figurative valonqar. Something with an explicit history of choking people to death. Something described with hands. Something with a suspiciously obscure name. Something with irrefutable symbolic similarities. Something that is tragically connected to Cersei. And (despite it being clearly presented to her) something she completely overlooks because of her fixation with Tyrion.
And we know of a very specific and prominent object within the story that causes death by asphyxiation: the Lysene poison, “The Strangler”
“The Strangler” also satisfies the prophecy with personified hands:
Cressen tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat. His cough became a terrible thin whistle as he strained to suck in air. Iron fingers tightened round his neck.
ACOK - Prologue
Remember, Cersei directly asks Taena, who is from MYR, if she’s familiar with the word “valonqar” and GRRM does not allow an answer:
"Tyrion is the valonqar," she said. "Do you use that word in Myr? It's High Valyrian, it means little brother." She had asked Septa Saranella about the word, after Melara drowned.
Taena took her hand and stroked it. "This was a hateful woman, old and sick and ugly. You were young and beautiful, full of life and pride…
AFFC - Cersei IX
Then we observe that The Strangler isn’t the poison’s original name - coincidence or not, GRRM deliberately left its original name unanswered:
Cressen no longer recalled the name the Asshai'i gave the leaf, or the Lysene poisoners the crystal. In the Citadel, it was simply called the strangler
ACOK - Prologue
There are only two, exactly two, named poisons from Lys:
- The Tears of Lys
- The Strangler
Remember, Cersei’s interpretation of the prophetic sentence is:
“And when your grief has consumed you, the “little brother” shall choke you to death.”
But the blueprint suggests Cersei’s interpretation is ironically wrong.
And if Cersei is wrong, we can observe a better fitting interpretation which uses both Lysene poisons:
"And when (The Tears of Lys) have drowned you , (The Strangler) shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you."
But wait, what about the pronoun “his”? Well, GRRM has paired gendered pronouns with inanimate objects - see here as he assigns a pronoun to a ship:
The drums were pounding out a battle beat as the Iron Victory swept forward, her ram cutting through the choppy green waters.
AFFC - The Reaver
GRRM has cleverly given us hints at exactly how Cersei dies:
The valonqar shall wrap his hands about your throat, the queen heard, but the voice did not belong to the old woman. The hands emerged from the mists of her dream and coiled around her neck; thick hands, and strong. Above them floated his face, leering down at her with his mismatched eyes. No, the queen tried to cry out, but the dwarf's fingers dug deep into her neck, choking off her protests. She kicked and screamed to no avail. Before long she was making the same sound her son had made, the terrible thin sucking sound that marked Joff's last breath on earth.
AFFC - Cersei VIII
Just take a moment to consider the imagery here:
- Cersei envisions her perceived “valonqar” choking her
- The choking is likened to the exact same sound both Cressen and her son made when they choked to death
- Cressen and Joffrey choked to death because of the strangler
Let me repeat that for emphasis: Cersei’s dream depicts the “valonqar” killing in the exact same style as The Strangler
This is shades of the Duke - Cersei is so focused on Tyrion as the valonqar, she’s blinded to the real valonqar being experienced in the exact same vision.
Understanding this, we can see a double entendre that GRRM hid in plain sight - Tyrion’s threat:
"I have never liked you, Cersei, but you were my own sister, so I never did you harm. You've ended that. I will hurt you for this. I don't know how yet, but give me time. A day will come when you think yourself safe and happy, and suddenly your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth, and you'll know the debt is paid."
ACOK - Tyrion XII
Now observe the Strangler’s ingredients:
It was made from a certain plant that grew only on the islands of the Jade Sea, half a world away. The leaves had to be aged, and soaked in a wash of limes and sugar water and certain rare spices from the Summer Isles. Afterward they could be discarded, but the potion must be thickened with ash and allowed to crystallize.
ACOK - Prologue
In the story, the most common vehicle for poison is wine, and what brings Cersei more joy than a cup of Arbor Gold?
Now you’re probably wondering, “Ok, let’s say we entertain your theory, how do these poisons make it into Cersei’s cup?”
Well, we know of at least one person who has a Westerosi trajectory, who (from their WOW chapter) is now in proximity to a ship that is going to sail Swyftly back to Kings Landing, who is learning about poisons during their Faceless Men training, and who has Cersei on their hit list…
The She-Wolf: Arya Stark
Remember, what is Harys Swyft doing in Braavos?
He’s there to request another loan:
"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Elsewise—"
"The magisters of Pentos have been known to lend money as well," said Ser Kevan. "Try them." The Pentoshi were even less like to be of help than the Myrish money changers, but the effort must be made. Unless a new source of coin could be found, or the Iron Bank persuaded to relent, he would have no choice but to pay the crown's debts with Lannister gold. He dare not resort to new taxes, not with the Seven Kingdoms crawling with rebellion. Half the lords in the realm could not tell taxation from tyranny, and would bolt to the nearest usurper in a heartbeat if it would save them a clipped copper. "If that fails, you may well need to go to Braavos, to treat with the Iron Bank yourself."
Ser Harys quailed. "Must I?"
ADWD - Epilogue
But the Crown is already deeply indebted to the Iron Bank and refusing to pay:
“Though large, the crown incomes are not large enough to keep abreast of Robert’s debts. Accordingly, I have decided to defer our repayment of the sums owed the Holy Faith and the Iron Bank of Braavos until war’s end.” The new High Septon would doubtless wring his holy hands, and the Braavosi would squeak and squawk at her, but what of it? “The monies saved will be used for the building of our new fleet.”
“Your Grace is prudent,” said Lord Merryweather. “This is a wise measure. And needed, until the war is done. I concur.”
“And I,” said Ser Harys.
“Your Grace,” Pycelle said in a quavering voice, “this will cause more trouble than you know, I fear. The Iron Bank . . .”
“. . . remains on Braavos, far across the sea. They shall have their gold, maester. A Lannister pays his debts.”
“The Braavosi have a saying too.” Pycelle’s jeweled chain clinked softly. “The Iron Bank will have its due, they say.”
AFFC - Cersei IV
And it’s known how the Iron Bank deals with debtors who fail or refuse to pay:
He did not have to like it, though. And come spring, when the time came to repay all that gold, he would like it even less. Tycho Nestoris had impressed him as cultured and courteous, but the Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome reputation when collecting debts. Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined. When princes defaulted on their debts to lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their wives and children into slavery and opened their own veins. When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.
As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. No doubt the Lannisters had good reason for refusing to honor King Robert's debts, but it was folly all the same.
ADWD - Jon IX
Given the circumstances, it is difficult to imagine Harys Swyft's meeting with the Iron Bank going well. And when this meeting fails, how will the Iron Bank “have its due”?
Well, Braavos is home to another organization uniquely suited to carrying out this type of justice - The Faceless Men.
And the Iron Bank has rumored to have used the Faceless Men before, in eliminating the last rival banking power - House Rogare:
Though the narrow sea lay between them, the two Rogares died within a day of each other, both under suspicious circumstances. Drazenko perished first, choking to death upon a piece of bacon. Lysandro drowned when his opulent barge sank whilst carrying him from his Perfumed Garden back to his palace. Though a few would insist that their deaths were unfortunate accidents, many more took the manner and timing of their passings as proof of a plot to bring down House Rogare. The Faceless Men of Braavos were widely believed to have been responsible for the killings; no more subtle assassins were known to exist anywhere in the wide world.
But if indeed the Faceless Men had done these deeds, at whose bidding had they acted? The Iron Bank of Braavos was suspected…
F&B - The Lysene Spring and the End of Regency
And the FM have trained Arya at performing this exact task on a crooked insurance merchant:
Cat did not understand. “They pay him gold and silver, but he only gives them writing. Are they stupid?”
“A few, mayhaps. Most are simply cautious. Some think to cozen him. He is not a man easily cozened, however.”
“But what is he selling them?”
“He is writing each a binder. If their ships are lost in a storm or taken by pirates, he promises to pay them for the value of the vessel and all its contents.”
“Is it some kind of wager?”
“Of a sort. A wager every captain hopes to lose.”
“Yes, but if they win …”
“… they lose their ships, oftimes their very lives. The seas are dangerous, and never more so than in autumn. No doubt many a captain sinking in a storm has taken some small solace in his binder back in Braavos, knowing that his widow and children will not want.” A sad smile touched his lips. “It is one thing to write such a binder, though, and another to make good on it.”
ADWD - The Ugly Little Girl
Let me reiterate unless it’s not clear: The Faceless Men trained and tasked Arya to kill someone who was refusing to honor their financial obligation.
So you have all these converging points in Braavos:
- The Crown’s refusal to pay its debt
- Harys Swyft’s arrival in Braavos
- The Iron Bank’s method of collection
- The Faceless Men training Arya on how to deal with bad faith debtors
And the potential issue between Arya’s personal desire to kill Cersei conflicting with the FM’s strict rules could be resolved if she’s sent to give Cersei “the gift” as the Iron Bank’s “due”
With all this understood, let’s look back to GRRM’s clever handling of Tyrion’s threat:
“...your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth, and you’ll know the debt is paid”
To recap:
- GRRM’s Wars of the Roses inspiration gives us a prophecy blueprint that determines the valonqar is likely figurative
- The most fitting figurative valonqar is the poison, “The Strangler”
- The Strangler has personified hands with “iron fingers”
- “Valonqar” has a suspicious translation, and the strangler’s original name is not given
- The Tears of Lys and The Strangler have a unique symbolic fitting into the prophecy
- Cersei envisions “the valonqar” and it chokes her to death in the same way “the strangler” killed Joffrey and Maester Cressen
- Tyrion’s threat involves ashes in Cersei’s mouth, and The Strangler is made with ash
- Arya is the most likely candidate to deliver “the gift” of these Lysene poisons to Cersei, as the Iron Bank must have its due and the Faceless Men are the most logical contractor
If you made it this far, thank you for reading! What do you think?
edit: To anyone wondering, I do think Jaime will be involved with the prophecy, but in a more symbolic way than is traditionally perceived. I have another video series coming out that will tie in Jaime's involvement, making his role unmistakably clear.
