r/baseball Seattle Mariners 4h ago

Analysis Both new Seattle RH OFs (Ward and Refsnyder) lost ~100 points of wRC+ as soon as they joined the Mariners

In a year where everything has gone wrong for Seattle (worst pitching staff in the second half, Raleigh + Donovan + Crawford + Emerson + Raley + Miller playing through injury), this stands out as exceptionally cursed.

Teams stack their lefties to face Seattle, and the RH OFs the Mariners brought in to deal with this both lost 100 points of wRC+ the moment they joined the Mariners. That's... that's all the wRC+ there is. That's all 100 points.

Not sure what's more impressive, Ward getting traded during a good year and turning into a pumpkin on literally day 1, or Refsnyder faceplanting so hard he retired midseason.

195 Upvotes

56 comments sorted by

124

u/hawkfan78 Seattle Mariners 4h ago

The only thing that hasn't gone wrong this year is Randy playing out of his mind, and that could be considered going wrong because he's playing himself into a huge FA contract that the Mariners will most certainly not shell out the cash for.

36

u/slicepaperwrists_ Seattle Mariners 3h ago

Cole Young has been a delight this season--really impressive fielder and a promising young hitter, improved markedly on both sides of the ball. excited to see him next season and beyond

15

u/The_Throwback_King Seattle Mariners 2h ago edited 1h ago

I will say, Logan Gilbert has mostly avoided the absolute carnage that has been dealt to our rotation.

Not stellar this year but he’s the only SP where I can see his name and not have to worry about meltdowns.

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u/[deleted] 2h ago

[deleted]

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u/The_Throwback_King Seattle Mariners 1h ago

What are you talking about?

Logan Gilbert has the 12th-best ERA, 3rd-best WHIP, and 15th-best SO/9 of any active starter with his mileage

Dude’s one of the best pitchers in the league, straight up

0

u/[deleted] 1h ago

[deleted]

3

u/The_Throwback_King Seattle Mariners 1h ago

Having a “1” is certainly a good way to go deep.

However, having a balanced roster, both on offense and from the mound can also provide a pathway to a run

2025 showed that we could go deep with it, while still leaving us with an assignment to learn from how we fell short, and strive to be better.

Of the veteran voices, only he and Randy, in my opinion, have followed through on that commitment to excellence

1

u/rewardingsnark Seattle Mariners 1h ago

Agree that he was been one the better players, just saying not good enough and shouldn't be paid like a #1 yet.

5

u/tlsrandy Seattle Mariners 2h ago

Don’t forget canzone! What a breath of fresh air Dom has been.

1

u/unpuzzling Detroit Tigers 2h ago

I was at his debut game last season and I remember how exciting it was for you all. He does seem like a future super star that plays well at T Mobile.

1

u/hawkfan78 Seattle Mariners 1h ago

For sure. I wish he could have had a few more off-days, feels like they overused him due to injuries and the lack of infield depth. Look forward to his future.

37

u/GingerDweeb27 Seattle Mariners • Seattle Mariners 4h ago

Honestly with how bad right handed hitters tend to do in Seattle, Randy will probably hit Judge levels of offense on another team. It’ll be like Goku taking off his weights

22

u/No-Conversation3860 Seattle Mariners 3h ago

After last night, I feel like he might be interested hitting at Fenway more often lol. If he doesn’t sign with us (he won’t) I hope he goes back to the Rays personally.

7

u/JazzlikeStaff8740 Seattle Mariners 3h ago

I doubt they will fork up the cash

1

u/TectonicImprov Boston Red Sox 1h ago

please no

1

u/Grade-AMasterpiece Tampa Bay Rays 3h ago

I hope so too cuz we need better bats in the outfield.

1

u/Bootleschloogen Houston Astros 2h ago

Randy has been training under 100 times Earth's gravity

5

u/LlamasPajamas206 Seattle Mariners • Mariner Moose 3h ago

I don’t really think there was a scenario where the Ms keep Randy anyways. Like you said he’s playing himself into a big contract that we almost certainly aren’t shelling out for but if he was only a solid hitter I doubt the Ms would want to pay FA rates for a 32 year old near his decline, with only a solid bat and poor fielding, and if he was terrible they probably wouldn’t want him back for anything but a minimal prove it deal (which few hitters are going to take in Seattle).

Frankly the one benefit to his big year is that if the QO system stays intact we’re essentially getting a late 1st round pick/early 2nd round pick out of him signing a big deal elsewhere.

99

u/woolseydrew Seattle Mariners 4h ago

The thought is that they can’t hit at T-Mobile Park, but then they just suck everywhere. Clearly a team hitting philosophy problem.

27

u/evanieCK Cleveland Guardians • WPBL 4h ago

Refsnyder did have pretty gnarly home road splits when I checked in a while ago, but he was still bad on the road and just unplayable at home.

13

u/atowelguy Colorado Rockies 3h ago

wRC+ is also park adjusted, right?

17

u/alxndrblack Toronto Blue Jays • Detroit Tigers 3h ago

Maybe they should change the philosophy

My suggestion, as something of a hitting coach, would be to hit

2

u/kansashotwings Chicago Cubs • Cleveland Guardians 3h ago

But hit what, sir?

3

u/No-Conversation3860 Seattle Mariners 3h ago

Home runs baby!!!

3

u/alxndrblack Toronto Blue Jays • Detroit Tigers 3h ago

Bro I'm a Jays and Tigers fan fuck if I know

40

u/Bermut-Nundaloy Seattle Mariners 4h ago

There is no hitting philosophy so bad that it can turn Taylor Ward into a .100 hitter the second he walks into the clubhouse. That's just good old fashioned horrible luck baby

31

u/vanillaninja16 Seattle Mariners 3h ago

My dude it has been close to 10 years of Mariners hitters going up to the plate and swinging out of their shoes to hit HR’s and nothing else.

There is definitely a hitting philosophy problem.

5

u/immagonnafinnahella Seattle Mariners 3h ago

There is, but with ward specifically that’s not the problem

15

u/Bermut-Nundaloy Seattle Mariners 3h ago

Sure, although that is what the park forces because it suppresses doubles and triples.

But I highly doubt Taylor Ward walked into the clubhouse, and then Edgar said "hey bro FYI we only hit home runs here" and then Ward said "sure let me completely change my whole approach today" and then Ward suddenly sucked but he doesn't care and he didn't want to change back. Like that's not how coaching works, there's a lot of randomness and / or injury here

9

u/Gleb_Twankenfrister Boston Red Sox 3h ago

from the outside looking in, i would wager coaching turnover needs to happen lol. don’t know if yall have had the same hitting coach over the years or there has been already but something has to give. i can’t remember the last time you guys had someone break out offensively that wasn’t a prospect that came up w org

6

u/immagonnafinnahella Seattle Mariners 2h ago

We basically have a new hitting coach every year, at this point they need to clean house completely. They never will though, they still make money anyway and that’s all they care about

2

u/Some_Caregiver9138 Seattle Mariners 3h ago

From 2016 to 2026, the Mariners have a wRC+ of 103, which is essentially tied for 5th through 10th place in baseball.

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u/Raisinbrahms28 Seattle Mariners 1h ago

Seattle fans are so fucking whipped by this team that they’ll just chalk it up to bad luck and curses every year instead of demand the team get better or call for a new manager/GM. People do the wave at home games down 5 runs for fuck’s sake.

The Mariners have a fan problem as much as they have a management problem.

3

u/Traditional_Half842 MLB Players Association 3h ago

I imagine there is a mental/rhythm aspect of it as well. You struggle for a bit at home and then you're making adjustments and uncomfortable anywhere you play (home or away), and it can spiral from there.

113

u/LlamasPajamas206 Seattle Mariners • Mariner Moose 4h ago

Mariner

4

u/Potential_Bad_6133 3h ago

yeah the wrc+ drop is pretty wild

19

u/PizzaDog425 Seattle Mariners 3h ago

15

u/finmoore3 Seattle Mariners 4h ago

It’s the Mariners uniform, and marine layer. It’s cursed

21

u/FrostWPG Toronto Blue Jays 4h ago

13

u/Stone_0cean New York Mets • Seattle Mariners 3h ago

“Mariner”

4

u/ApprehensiveArm1493 Seattle Mariners 4h ago

Is that not good?

3

u/ms_barkie Toronto Blue Jays 3h ago

When 100 points is league average, losing 100 points is… Mariner

3

u/broccoleet Seattle Mariners 3h ago

Could it be mental? Like being acquired / traded for , to do one specific thing, puts more pressure on the player to do that thing. So they start over thinking their approach.

They’re both kinda old too.

But especially Ward had some warning signs, namely that he was never an on base guy before this season. Ref was just over the hill imo.

9

u/Bermut-Nundaloy Seattle Mariners 3h ago

For Refsnyder he had two bum knees and just couldn't hit any more, so the question is really just about whether the Seattle medical team evaluated his physical correctly more than anything else. Ward is crazy though haha, that's just Mariners baseball

1

u/Noy_Telinu Los Angeles Angels 1h ago

It has been a thing for literally 25 years. Even Adrian Beltre struggled there.

3

u/GravyNeck Seattle Mariners 3h ago

If you don't like that you don't like Mariners Baseball

2

u/mahrinazz Seattle Mariners 2h ago

The curse claims its newest victim.

Taylor Ward is losing millions of dollars in future earnings as this goes on. I bet he was devastated to be traded to Seattle.

2

u/rewardingsnark Seattle Mariners 2h ago

Once you are a member of the shittiest team in history you become shit. That's the rule, also why everyone plays for them sucks.

1

u/Ok-Sea9612 1h ago

Ward had already been falling off from his early season. And his early season wasn't actually good aside from walking a ton.

1

u/Raisinbrahms28 Seattle Mariners 1h ago

Right handed bats come to Seattle and die. It is known.

1

u/letdown105 Seattle Mariners 22m ago

Is T-mobile/safeco built on cursed land?

0

u/ClutchCity9495 Houston Astros 2h ago

Why don't they move in the fences in Seattle already? It seems long overdue.

10

u/Bermut-Nundaloy Seattle Mariners 2h ago

They did. It doesn't really help; they already have one of the smallest outfields in baseball. Moving in the fences more would add a few home runs but subtract triples, doubles, and singles from outfielders having less ground to cover. 

An actual ballpark fix would take figuring out what increases strikeouts by 20% in the stadium (batter's eye? wind?) and fixing that, or adding weird outfield features like ivy walls or strange angles to increase triples.

1

u/No_Buy2554 Cincinnati Reds 1h ago

I've always heard the marine layer was the problem. It makes fly balls die, and hitters feel like they have to swing harder if they're going for the fences (hence the higher K rate) or adjust the approach t liners instead.

2

u/RSM34 Seattle Mariners 1h ago

They did around 2013. It helps keep the ball park close to league average for home runs hit but it’s taken away all other type of hits since there less ground for outfielders to cover.

-7

u/Gabelbram Houston Astros 4h ago

Nice