I have looked at the top 28 females by number of race wins (12 or more), and sorted them into six different categories based on the type of races they most often win. Most of them have won all four, but they are grouped according to the TWO types where they have the highest win percentage. The exact number of wins is less important than the percentage, considering the difference in number of races run. Some of these athletes were also active when there were only individuals and sprints, which makes looking at only race wins even more deceptive.
The categorization fit rather well with our perception of these athletes, but for some athletes it becomes more unclear. So, where wins don't appear to make sense given the athlete's skiing or shooting, I also look at podium results and even top 10s to get a more nuanced picture.
In addition to these 28, I have also included (more casually) a number of current and past athletes who are memorable or interesting in some way. For them, podiums and top 10 results are often used over wins, as they generally don't have enough wins to be statistically reliable. The most prolific race winners tend to have a fairly even distribution of podiums, or even more wins than seconds or thirds. Those with a lower number of wins, on the other hand, tend to have a lower podium-to-win ratio, making the inclusion of podiums necessary.
I have only looked at women here. The men's races are much more strongly unbalanced towards skiing over shooting, as explained below. I might make a separate post for the men, though, but I will have to look carefully at the statistics to see if I find the results meaningful.
What I have done is trying to classify each race type by skiing vs. shooting, individual start vs. head-to-head and short vs. long, and then compared an athletes win % for each type with their career statistics in skiing in shooting. This way we can group different athletes together in categories based on their performance, and see if it makes sense.
To find out which races are more "skiing" or "shooting". I have estimated the cost of a miss in seconds per kilometer of racing. This is based on a flat assumption of a 25 second penalty loop for women and 22 seconds for men. Also assuming 9/10 in a sprint and 18/20 in the other races, we get the following table of how much each miss cost in the tracks:
SPRINT
Women - 3,33 s/km (25s/7,5 km)
Men - 2,2 s/km (22s/10 km)
MASS START
Women - 4 s/km (50s/12,5 km)
Men - 2,93 s/km (44s/15 km)
PURSUIT
Women - 5 s/km (50s/10 km)
Men - 3,52 s/km (44s/12,5 km)
INDIVIDUAL
Women - 8 s/km (120s/15 km)
Men - 6 s/km (120s/20 km)
So, the sprint is the most skiing-intensive, followed by the mass start. Then the pursuit starts to weigh over more towards the shooting side. You can easily visualize this with how the shooting stages and penalties in mass starts and pursuits are exactly the same, but the mass start is 500 meters longer every lap for stronger skiers to make up for misses, or to simply outski equal shooters.
The difference in % is also larger between mass starts and pursuits (25%) than between sprints and mass starts (20%), further separating the "skiing" and "shooting" events into two pairs. The individual is a clear outlier on the shooting side. Extremely so for the women, considering that the men's SHORT individual is the same length as the women's full individual, but with only a 45 second penalty for a miss. A 45 second penalty for a miss in a regular women's individual would put the relative penalty at 6 seconds per kilometer - same as the men's, but still clearly favouring shooting.
You can also see from the men's numbers how much more strongly all races except the individual weigh over towards skiing. The pursuit, which we can consider shooting-heavy for women, is almost as skiing-heavy for men as the SPRINT is for women! This is why it is much harder to make a comprehensive list like this for the men. They all have to be strong skiers.
The GOATs:
| Name |
Active |
Wins |
IN |
Win % |
SP |
Win % |
PU |
Win % |
MS |
Win % |
Ski rank |
Skiing (1-28) |
Shoot % |
Shoot (1-28) |
| *Magdalena Forsberg |
1994–2002 |
42 |
7 |
18,9 |
13 |
20,6 |
19 |
48,7 |
3 |
21,4 |
4 |
5 |
87,2 |
5 |
| Darya Domracheva |
2006–2018 |
34 |
4 |
14,8 |
9 |
9,0 |
11 |
15,1 |
10 |
22,2 |
4 |
6 |
82,6 |
17 |
| Magdalena Neuner |
2006-2018 |
34 |
1 |
6,3 |
18 |
30,0 |
7 |
15,2 |
8 |
27,6 |
2 |
2 |
78,2 |
25 |
| *Uschi Disl |
1989-2006 |
30 |
9 |
12,2 |
12 |
9,2 |
7 |
10,3 |
2 |
6,7 |
2 |
1 |
78,0 |
27 |
| Tiril Eckhoff |
2011-2022 |
29 |
1 |
3,8 |
14 |
15,4 |
11 |
16,2 |
3 |
7,9 |
6 |
11 |
80,0 |
23 |
| Tora Berger |
2001-2014 |
28 |
5 |
15,6 |
7 |
6,9 |
9 |
11,4 |
7 |
15,6 |
14 |
25 |
84,7 |
12 |
| Kaisa Mäkäräinen |
2005-2020 |
27 |
2 |
4,4 |
8 |
5,7 |
13 |
12,4 |
4 |
5,9 |
3 |
4 |
81,5 |
19 |
| *Andrea Henkel |
1995-2014 |
22 |
4 |
7,4 |
5 |
3,5 |
8 |
6,8 |
5 |
7,9 |
10 |
18 |
85,3 |
10 |
| Laura Dahlmeier |
2013-2019 |
22 |
3 |
21,4 |
4 |
9,1 |
11 |
28,9 |
4 |
14,3 |
9 |
16 |
90,6 |
2 |
| *Liv Grete Skjelbreid |
1993-2006 |
22 |
1 |
2,8 |
10 |
12,7 |
8 |
15,1 |
3 |
16,7 |
3 |
3 |
76,9 |
28 |
| *Olena Zubrilova |
1992-2006 |
21 |
3 |
6,5 |
6 |
6,1 |
8 |
11,8 |
4 |
13,3 |
13,5 |
24 |
84,1 |
14 |
| Kati Wilhelm |
2000-2010 |
21 |
1 |
3,4 |
11 |
11,6 |
6 |
7,8 |
3 |
7,0 |
5 |
8 |
82,5 |
18 |
| Sandrine Bailly |
2000-2010 |
20 |
1 |
3,1 |
9 |
10,0 |
9 |
13,0 |
1 |
2,5 |
7 |
12 |
80,3 |
22 |
| Julia Simon |
2017- |
19 |
3 |
11,1 |
3 |
4,0 |
7 |
12,3 |
6 |
15,0 |
11 |
20 |
83,1 |
16 |
| Marte Olsbu Røiseland |
2012-2023 |
19 |
0 |
0,0 |
8 |
10,1 |
9 |
14,8 |
2 |
6,1 |
11 |
21 |
84,9 |
11 |
| Anastasiya Kuzmina |
2006- |
18 |
0 |
0,0 |
10 |
11,0 |
5 |
7,0 |
3 |
8,3 |
7 |
14 |
78,8 |
24 |
| Gabriela Soukalová |
2009-2017 |
17 |
2 |
11,1 |
7 |
13,0 |
4 |
9,5 |
4 |
17,4 |
8 |
15 |
87,0 |
6 |
| Dorothea Wierer |
2009-2026 |
17 |
7 |
16,3 |
4 |
3,0 |
2 |
2,0 |
4 |
6,8 |
18 |
27 |
85,8 |
7 |
| Hanna Öberg |
2016- |
15 |
4 |
13,8 |
6 |
7,8 |
1 |
1,6 |
4 |
10,5 |
11 |
19 |
84,1 |
15 |
| Martina Beck |
2000-2010 |
15 |
3 |
9,1 |
4 |
4,3 |
6 |
8,5 |
2 |
5,0 |
18 |
26 |
88,5 |
4 |
| Lou Jeanmonnot |
2021- |
15 |
2 |
12,5 |
3 |
8,6 |
8 |
24,2 |
2 |
9,5 |
9 |
17 |
91,2 |
1 |
| Justine Braisaz-Bouchet |
2014- |
14 |
3 |
8,8 |
5 |
5,3 |
1 |
1,4 |
5 |
10,4 |
5 |
9 |
78,1 |
26 |
| Elvira Öberg |
2019- |
14 |
1 |
5,0 |
3 |
5,2 |
5 |
10,9 |
5 |
16,7 |
7 |
13 |
84,5 |
13 |
| Helena Ekholm |
2005-2012 |
13 |
4 |
17,4 |
2 |
3,3 |
3 |
6,7 |
4 |
13,3 |
12 |
23 |
90,0 |
3 |
| Denise Herrmann-Wick |
2016-2023 |
13 |
2 |
12,5 |
7 |
12,1 |
4 |
8,7 |
0 |
0,0 |
4 |
7 |
81,0 |
20 |
| Olga Zaitseva |
2000-2014 |
13 |
2 |
7,1 |
5 |
5,5 |
4 |
5,8 |
2 |
4,9 |
12 |
22 |
85,6 |
8 |
| Anna Carin Zidek |
2002-2011 |
12 |
2 |
6,9 |
6 |
7,5 |
2 |
3,2 |
2 |
6,7 |
5 |
10 |
80,6 |
21 |
| Lisa Vittozzi |
2014- |
12 |
3 |
9,7 |
2 |
2,2 |
6 |
8,8 |
1 |
2,5 |
19 |
28 |
85,3 |
9 |
*These were active before the introduction of the pursuit (96/97) and/or mass start (98/99). This might skew their number or race wins towards the individual and sprint, but not the win %, which is the most important thing here.
The skiing is based on median ski rank, with average ski rank used as tiebreakers when necessary. I find median to be more reliable than average, as even the best skiiers often have terrible days due to waxing, illness or other, that upset and skew the average more than the median. Many of them also have very modest skiing early in their careers, where bad ski ranks in the early 20s make the averages seem much worse than their actual skiing was when they were competing for wins.
There is no ski rank information available before the 01/02 season, so this is either omitted if it only affects a few seasons, or estimated based on difference in shooting % and win % before or after the skiing information becomes available.
So, below are the six different categories based on all possible combinations of any two race types. I will first list the main 28 athletes, followed by the additional ones.
INDIVIDUAL + PURSUIT (shooting preference)
Except the extreme outlier Disl, everyone in this group is a top 10 shooter but below median skier (among these 28 athletes), as excepted from the two most shooting-heavy disciplines.
Uschi Disl
Wins: 30 (9,9%)
Individual: 9 (12,2%)
Sprint: 12 (9,2%)
Pursuit: 7 (10,3%)
Mass start: 2 (6,7%)
Median ski rank: 2
Rank (1-28): 1
Shooting %: 78,0
Rank (1-28): 27
Disl's placement in this group is probably the one that makes the least sense, seing as she is the highest ranked skier and the second lowest ranked shooter among all 28. Winning nine individuals is crazy for someone with a 78% career hit rate. One problem with the statistics is that she is also the oldest athlete here, and more than half her races are before the ski rank data is available. I think she was probably a little slower during the earlier years, because she had a higher shooting percentage then, but almost the exact same average and median race rank.
Looking at her race result, though, it can be said that she often mixes high and low. The low shooting average comes from many bad competitions with atrocious shooting, but she also have many with 90% or better. Athletes like that can win shooting-heavy race types, unlike athletes who more evenly shoot 80% every competition. Most of her individual wins was with 95% shooting, which is good enough for a top skier. It's just curious that she wasn't more efficient in sprints, compared to pursuits.
If we look one step further, and also include podiums, she starts to look more like a universalist. She has almost the exact same podium % across all disciplines, meaning her (skiing-heavy) sprints and mass starts are better than suggested from the wins alone.
But it's still only when we fine-tune to top 10 results that Disl's rankings beging to make sense in light of her statistics. Here we see a preference for PU+MS, which point to a head-to-head preference, and she also has the lowest top 10 percentage in the individual. Still, she is an outlier, because everything about her statistics says that she should be in the SP+MS category.
Laura Dahlmeier
Wins: 22 (17,7%)
Individual: 3 (21,4%)
Sprint: 4 (9,1%)
Pursuit: 11 (28,9%)
Mass start: 4 (14,3%)
Median ski rank: 9
Rank (1-28): 16
Shooting %: 90,6
Rank (1-28): 2
Clearly favouring shooting over skiing, and head-to-head over individual start. Like Jeanmonnot and Vittozzi, fully half of her wins are in pursuits.
Martina Beck
Wins: 15 (6,3%)
Individual: 3 (9,1%)
Sprint: 4 (4,3%)
Pursuit: 6 (8,5%)
Mass start: 2 (5,0%)
Median ski rank: 18
Rank (1-28): 26
Shooting %: 88,5
Rank (1-28): 4
Very clear and logical placement in this group.
Lou Jeanmonnot
Wins: 15 (14,3%)
Individual: 2 (12,5%)
Sprint: 3 (8,6%)
Pursuit: 8 (24,2%)
Mass start: 2 (9,5%)
Median ski rank: 9
Rank (1-28): 17
Shooting %: 91,2
Rank (1-28): 1
Has the lowest number of races among the 28, and quite notably so, which makes the accuracy of the numbers the least certain. She is expected to improve in ski rank (dragged down by her first two seasons) and possibly drop some in shooting from the current outlier.
Olga Zaitseva
Wins: 13 (5,7%)
Individual: 2 (7,1%)
Sprint: 5 (5,5%)
Pursuit: 4 (5,8%)
Mass start: 2 (4,9%)
Median ski rank: 12
Rank (1-28): 22
Shooting %: 85,6
Rank (1-28): 8
Probably the athlete closest to a true universalist among all 28, going by race results.
Lisa Vittozzi
Wins: 12 (5,2%)
Individual: 3 (9,7%)
Sprint: 2 (2,2%)
Pursuit: 6 (8,8%)
Mass start: 1 (2,5%)
Median ski rank: 19
Rank (1-28): 28
Shooting %: 85,3
Rank (1-28): 9
The lowest ranked skiier among the 28, but her shooting is clearly better than what the career average suggests. This number is skewed by the disastrous three-year slump she had a few seasons ago. Her median season (87,4%) is much higher than the career average, and would make her shooting the fourth best rather than the ninth.
Also:
Valentina Semerenko (2 wins, 11 podiums)
Has a low hit rate (83,5%) for someone in this group, but also a very large number of races with 100%, which explains why she favours these two races. She was simply very uneven in the shooting, which drags down the average. Her skiing is even more modest, which explains why she had less success in sprints and mass starts, where the occasional 100% may not be enough.
Vanessa Voigt (5 podiums)
No surprises here for perhaps the best shooter (92,3% is a whole percent better than Jeanmonnot), although her top 10 ratings also suggest a liking for mass starts.
Ella Halvarsson (2 podiums)
86,9% shooting is well above average, which fits with her best results being in these two races, especially the individual.
Camille Bened (2 podiums)
Again, no surprises with 92,0% shooting (though a very low number of races). Clear preference for these two disciplines, with a podium in each and also the two highest top 10 percentages.
Lora Hristova (1 podium)
86,7% shooting and slow skiing makes it clear enough. Clearly favours the individual, with a minor blip in the pursuit. She has no top 10 finishes in the other disciplines, and misses half of the pursuits because of slow sprints.
SPRINT + MASS START (skiing preference)
This should have the opposite distribution to IN+PU, but it's not actually as clear as expected, although 2 out 3 do prefer skiing over shooting. Both of them are also clear sprint specialists with more than half of their total wins in this discipline. There are relatively few athletes in this group, which might upset the perception somewhat.
Magdalena Neuner
Wins: 34 (22,5%)
Individual: 1 (6,3%)
Sprint: 18 (30,0%)
Pursuit: 7 (15,2%)
Mass start: 8 (27,6%)
Median ski rank: 2
Rank (1-28): 2
Shooting %: 78,2
Rank (1-28): 25
With Disl and Skjelbreid, The clearest example of a skier-over-shooter. More sprint wins than anyone else, but only one individual win.
Anastasiya Kuzmina
Wins: 18 (7,9%)
Individual: 0 (0%)
Sprint: 10 (11,0%)
Pursuit: 5 (7,0%)
Mass start: 3 (8,3%)
Median ski rank: 7
Rank (1-28): 14
Shooting %: 78,8
Rank (1-28): 24
No surprises here either, a much stronger skier than shooter. Like Neuner, more than half her wins are in sprints. Her median ski rank is currently worsening during her comeback. During her "main" career stretch, she would be ranked number 12 out of these 28, directly after Tiril Eckhoff.
Gabriela Soukalová
Wins: 17 (12,4%)
Individual: 2 (11,1%)
Sprint: 7 (13,0%)
Pursuit: 4 (9,5%)
Mass start: 4 (17,4)
Median ski rank: 8
Rank (1-28): 15
Shooting %: 87,0
Rank (1-28): 6
This is as big a mystery as Disl in the "opposite" category. Her preference for the "skiing" disciplines doesn't really make sense, considering she is clearly a stronger shooter than skier. Her profile clearly suggests that she won more sprints and mass starts than she "should" have, perhaps by circumstance. She has the third lowest number of races among the whole group, which might skew the numbers.
If we also look at podiums, it makes more sense. Her podium % in individuals and pursuits are higher than in sprints, which is what we expect from a stronger shooter. Her mass start mastery is equally pronounced when including podiums, though, which is hard to explain. It might be a preference for longer races.
Also:
Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold (5 wins, 24 podiums)
Fairly universal, actually. Highest podium rate in sprints and mass starts (strong skiing), but almost the same in individual and pursuits. Her top 10 results point towards the mass start as her favourite race, with an equal distribution among the other types.
Miriam Gössner (3 wins, 10 podiums)
The original Lampic (69,2% career shooting), no surprises with her placement in this category. Also has some pursuit success, which are likely spillovers from obscenely fast sprints (her fastest races are outrageous, although she also had many slower ones). Not a single top 10 finish in the individual discipline in 16 attempts.
Magdalena Gwizdon (2 wins, 6 podiums)
The most prolific female biathlete, trailing only OEB and Simon Eder in number of starts. 79,2% hit rate conforms with her clear preference for these two race types. Both wins in sprint.
Mari Eder (2 wins, 3 podiums)
Her only wins is a sprint/pursuit double. The pursuit win is also her ONLY top 10 pursuit finish in 75 attempts, so we can call it a statistical anomaly. Otherwise, she clearly weighs over to the sprint followed by the mass start, as expected from 74,6% shooting.
Anna Magnusson (1 win, 7 podiums)
I don't think of her primarily as a skiier, but she has a slightly higher podium rate in the mass start than the pursuit, and her top 10 % also points towards sprints and mass starts.
Océane Michelon (1 win, 6 podiums)
Clear mass start preference, followed by sprint, which is in line with her strong skiing. However, her shooting is also better (84,9%) than the median for the top 28 athletes (84,1%), and her top 10 % is slightly better in both individual and pursuit than in sprint.
Selina Grotian (1 win, 2 podiums)
Doesn't belong convincingly in this group, which is only based on the mass start win and sprint podium. In the top 10s she is equally good in pursuits. Her stats also points towards better shooting (82,9%) than skiing, so her placement in this group is probably a statistical anomaly because of the low number of races.
Anamarija Lampic (2 podiums)
One podium in each, and a total of nine top 10s in only these two race types. I think we know why. Career hit rate: 63,5%. Median ski rank: 1. Actually better in mass starts than sprints, which may be her background as a cross-country sprinter with strong head-to-head familiarity.
Milena Todorova (2 podiums)
Also one podium in each, which is reinforced by overwhelming preference in top 10 % in these two race types. This is expected from solid skiing and only 80,7% shooting.
Sophie Chauveau (2 podiums)
Both podiums in sprint. Again, clearly leaning towards these two races in top 10s, and her 79,4% shooting and strong skiing fits perfectly with this.
Julia Tannheimer (0 podiums)
She is fast and shoots below average (80,8%). Her mass start is better than her sprint, which together with her pursuit being clearly better than her individual, points towards a head-to-head preference.
INDIVIDUAL + SPRINT (individual start preference)
The two biggest polar opposites, with the individual having the most skiing but the least relative importance, and vice versa. You would except the athletes here to be even in skiing and shooting, but both of them are notably better skiers.
Denise Herrmann-Wick
Wins: 13 (8,9%)
Individual: 2 (12,5%)
Sprint: 7 (12,1%)
Pursuit: 4 (8,7%)
Mass start: 0 (0%)
Median ski rank: 4
Rank (1-28): 7
Shooting %: 81,0
Rank (1-28): 20
Not entirely clear why someone with such a clear skiing advantage has the individual as the best discipline. It might simply be a strong preference for individual starts, combined with a tolerance for long races. She has almost 5% worse shooting in relays than in solo races, which might also support this theory.
Anna Carin Zidek
Wins: 12 (6,0%)
Individual: 2 (6,9%)
Sprint: 6 (7,5%)
Pursuit: 2 (3,2%)
Mass start: 2 (6,7%)
Median ski rank: 5
Rank (1-28): 10
Shooting %: 80,6
Rank (1-28): 21
Has a very notable mix of good and bad shooting results, which leads to being able to win the most disparate race types (as well as having many terrible races dragging down the shooting average). Her mass start is almost as good as her individual, though, which would place her in the more logical and skiing-heavy SP+MS group. She is closed to be called a universalist.
Also:
Marketa Davidova (4 wins, 12 podiums)
Overwhelming preference for the individual, with an equally clear sprint as second best, and only a single podium in each of the other types. Relatively weak shooting (81,6%) for someone who favours the individual, but she is also someone who often mixes very good shooting results with bad days on the range.
Florence Baverel (1 win, 14 podiums)
Podium % favour these two disciplines, although the top 10 ratios are stronger in pursuits and mass starts than in sprints. The single win is a sprint, though. She can be considered fairly universal.
PURSUIT + MASS START (head-to-head preference)
The same total length as IN+SP, but these two races are much closer in "style" to each other. The preference of shooting or skiing is not immediately clear here. 3 out of 7 are skiing-first, two are shooting-first, two are about even.
Magdalena Forsberg
Wins: 42 (27,5%)
Individual: 7 (18,9%)
Sprint: 13 (20,6%)
Pursuit: 19 (48,7%)
Mass start: 3 (21,4%)
Median ski rank: 4
Rank (1-28): 5
Shooting %: 87,2
Rank (1-28): 5
Hard to believe that the individual is actually her lowest ranked race (though higher than sprints in podium %). That said, she is very evenly matched in everything except the pursuit outlier. There is only ski rank data available for her last season, so her actual skiing relative to others here is a bit sketchy to assess. We can, however, make an educated guess from the fact that both her shooting and race rank were slightly better in her last season than during the rest of her career. This suggests that the skiing was roughly equal before and after the data becomes available, and the improvement in rank came from the improvement in shooting.
Darya Domracheva
Wins: 34 (13,9%)
Individual: 4 (14,8%)
Sprint: 9 (9,0%)
Pursuit: 11 (15,1%)
Mass start: 10 (22,2%)
Median ski rank: 4
Rank (1-28): 6
Shooting %: 82,6
Rank (1-28): 17
Her individual rating is almost as good as her pursuit, and with the mass start being the highest she is skewed towards longer races. But she is also an athlete that has many shooting results well above (and well below) her average, which makes her capable of winning shooting-heavy races.
Kaisa Mäkäräinen
Wins: 27 (7,5%)
Individual: 2 (4,4%)
Sprint: 8 (5,7%)
Pursuit: 13 (12,4%)
Mass start: 4 (5,9%)
Median ski rank: 3
Rank (1-28): 4
Shooting %: 81,5
Rank (1-28): 19
Her shooting is relatively weak, which puts her pursuit mastery in the head-to-head camp rather than the shooting camp, especially since her number of sprint wins are relatively few. When looking at podiums, she does however have a higher % in sprints than in mass starts, which could also place her in the SP+PU group.
She has a notably large discrepancy between her average and median ski ranks, which can be explained by a long career that didn't take off until around age 28. She was relatively slow when she was younger, but when she got fast, she was pretty much the fastest all the time. That's why her median is so low (a long row of top result in the latter half of her career) compared to her average (many weak early career ski ranks).
Liv Grete Skjelbreid
Wins: 22 (11,8%)
Individual: 1 (2,8%)
Sprint: 10 (12,7%)
Pursuit: 8 (15,1%)
Mass start: 3 (16,7%)
Median ski rank: 3
Rank (1-28): 3
Shooting %: 76,9
Rank (1-28): 28
Also strong in sprint and weak in individual, conforming with being the weakest shooter but one of the top 5 skiers here. her higher number of sprint than pursuit wins is skewed by being active before the pursuit existed.
Olena Zubrilova
Wins: 21 (8,6%)
Individual: 3 (6,5%)
Sprint: 6 (6,1%)
Pursuit: 8 (11,8%)
Mass start: 4 (13,3%)
Median ski rank: 13,5
Rank (1-28): 24
Shooting %: 84,1
Rank (1-28): 14
She also started racing before pursuits and mass starts. Better shooter (84,1 is the exact median) but weaker skier than Skjelbreid, which also shows in better individual but worse sprint results.
Julia Simon
Wins: 19 (9,5%)
Individual: 3 (11,1%)
Sprint: 3 (4,0%)
Pursuit: 7 (12,3%)
Mass start: 6 (15,0%)
Median ski rank: 11
Rank (1-28): 20
Shooting %: 83,1
Rank (1-28): 16
Simon's career can be split in two halves. Before 22/23, she was an above-average skier and 80%-shooter (which explains why her career average is much lower than what we see in current competitions). Since then, her skiing has only mildly improved, whereas the shooting has improved drastically. All her individual wins are from the last two seasons.
Elvira Öberg
Wins: 14 (9,1%)
Individual: 1 (5,0%)
Sprint: 3 (5,2%)
Pursuit: 5 (10,9%)
Mass start: 5 (16,7%)
Median ski rank: 7
Rank (1-28): 13
Shooting %: 84,5
Rank (1-28): 13
No surprise here. Elvira often states in interviews that she is less inspired in individual starts than head-to-head. Despite being thought of as primarily a skier, she is ranked 13 (slightly better than median) in both skiing and shooting among this group. Amusingly, she is actually ranked 13 in almost everything (average ski rank, median ski rank, shooting % AND win %)
That said, her ski rank average and median is dropping every season. Just removing her two first seasons (aged 20 and 21) brings her skiing equal to Kati Wilhelm and Justine Braisaz-Bouchet (though Justine might also continue to lower her ski rank average/median).
Also:
Corinne Niogret (8 wins, 37 podiums)
Solid shooting (83,8%), but hard to assess skiing. Ski ranks are missing from her earlier career, where she also have all the best results. Later ski ranks are actually pretty bad, so it can be asumed she was much faster when she also had success. Sprint is her weakest discipline though, so she was probably about average in skiing. All in all, fairly universal with a small head-to-head edge.
Marie Dorin Habert (7 wins, 28 podiums)
Actually lower win % in pursuits and mass starts, but with a CLEARLY higher podium and top 10 % in these races.
Franziska Preuss (6 wins, 31 podiums)
Her placement in this group is not entirely clear. The only standout race for her is the mass start, with the highest win and podium %. Of the others, she has the highest win % and lowest podium % for pursuits, and vice versa for individuals, so she could be in any of the mass start groups, really. However, her top 10 percentage is notably higher for pursuits than for individuals and sprints, which is used as the decider here. That said, she also has a significantly worse shooting percentage in relays, so the H2H preference is tenuous at best.
Maren Kirkeeide (2 wins, 8 podiums)
Wins in sprint and mass start, in line with her strong skiing, but a higher podium % in pursuits than sprints, which also points to a head-to-head preference. Her top 10 ratios point more towards a SP+PU preference, so we'll have to wait for a bigger race selection to see if she swings more towards sprints or mass starts as time goes on. She simply does not have enough races to provide reliable stats just yet, although the signs are there.
Lena Häcki-Gross (2 wins, 7 podiums)
With a career hit rate of 78,5%, her individual win is surprising, but as we all remember, it was an inspirational run in her strongest season, although certainly a statistical outlier. Her podium rate suggests a strong preference for the pursuit and mass start, with a notably stronger pursuit than sprint, which for a modest shooter can only be explained by preferring head-to-head.
Dzinara Alimbekava (1 win, 6 podiums)
Won a sprint, but all other podiums are pursuits and mass starts. And she has the highest top 10 % in individuals, so she can be considered fairly universalist.
Paulina Batovska Fialkova (11 podiums)
Very clear preference for mass starts and pursuits, with four podiums in each. Curiously better in individuals than sprints for an 80,3% shooter.
Jeanne Richard (1 podium)
Very strong preference for these two race types when looking at top 5 and 10 finishes.
Anna Gandler (0 podiums)
Although she has no podiums, her top 10s point towards a head-to-head preference.
SPRINT + PURSUIT (short race preference/sprint spillover)
I would say that this group is slightly leaning over to skiing over shooting, in particular it might favour athletes who prefer shorter races at high intensity. 3 of 4 here are notably better skiers than shooters. Also, because the pursuit is based on the sprint, weaker shooters can still survive a pursuit if the sprint result was good enough.
Tiril Eckhoff
Wins: 29 (13,0%)
Individual: 1 (3,8%)
Sprint: 14 (15,4%)
Pursuit: 11 (16,2%)
Mass start: 3 (7,9%)
Median ski rank: 6
Rank (1-28): 11
Shooting %: 80,0
Rank (1-28): 23
No one who has seen the 2020/21 season can wonder about her placement in this group. She had the second highest number of wins in a season ever (and 45% of all her total wins), but not a single one that wasn't a sprint or pursuit. Also solid in the mass start, with three Olympic medals in a row.
Kati Wilhelm
Wins: 21 (8,6%)
Individual: 1 (3,4%)
Sprint: 11 (11,6%)
Pursuit: 6 (7,8%)
Mass start: 3 (7,0%)
Median ski rank: 5
Rank (1-28): 8
Shooting %: 82,5
Rank (1-28): 18
Almost as good in mass starts as in pursuits, which supports her skiing preference. The pursuits, of course, can often be won from the position of a strong sprint, and her shooting is not that bad.
Sandrine Bailly
Wins: 20 (8,7%)
Individual: 1 (3,1%)
Sprint: 9 (10,0%)
Pursuit: 9 (13,0%)
Mass start: 1 (2,5%)
Median ski rank: 7
Rank (1-28): 12
Shooting %: 80,3
Rank (1-28): 22
Stronger in pursuits than sprints, which is a little strange considering her relatively weak shooting, and that her mass start results doesn't suggest a preference for head-to-head.
Marte Olsbu Røiseland
Wins: 19 (9,6%)
Individual: 0 (0%)
Sprint: 8 (10,1%)
Pursuit: 9 (14,8%)
Mass start: 2 (6,1%)
Median ski rank: 11
Rank (1-28): 21
Shooting %: 84,9
Rank (1-28): 11
Weakest skier and best shooter of this group, although like Mäkäräinen, she was also a late bloomer who become much faster (and a better shooter) in the last half of her career. With a better first half, her skiing would be closer to the median. With her strong shooting in the last half of her career, it is strange that she never won an individual.
Also:
Galina Koukleva (9 wins, 20 podiums)
Very clearly favouring sprints followed by pursuits, then mass starts, and individuals not at all (a profile very similar to Eckhoff's). The 74,6% hit rate tells us that the pursuits are primarily survived from strong sprints.
Katrin Apel (4 wins, 18 podiums)
Like Koukleva, pretty much an eariler Tiril Eckhoff in all stats and race results. Better skiing than shooting, with a sprint specialization that spills over to pursuits, and clearly better mass starts than individuals.
Suvi Minkkinen (1 win, 10 podiums)
Has only won the sprint, but with a clear pursuit preference in podiums, as expected from her strong shooting. With a good sprint, she is very likely to do even better in the pursuit. Her top ten percentages are the highest for pursuits and mass starts, also pointing towards a preference for head-to-head. Surprisingly modest results in the individual, suggesting a dislike of longer races (her best ski ranks are in sprints and pursuits), which is also supported by often having among the worst ski ranks in mass starts.
Hanna Sola (1 win, 6 podiums)
Only has podiums in these disciplines. Highest top 10 % in mass starts, but with too few of them run to be statistically reliable.
INDIVIDUAL + MASS START (long race preference/X factor)
The individual is the strongest outlier among the four race types, which skews this category towards shooting over skiing. Indeed, 5 out of 6 here are better shooters than skiers.
That said, this is the race combination that makes the least sense, yet there are surprisingly many who are in this group. One race is individual start, the other is head-to-head, and the difference between shooting and skiing is strong. The individual is exactly twice as penalizing for a missed target as the mass start. By comparison, the pursuit is only 50% more penalizing than the sprint, AND it has the additional connection of being based on the sprint.
The best explanation I can find for this is that these are the two longest races, which may be what these athletes prefer. It may also be that it's simply likelier to hit it right in a mass start, because of the low number of athletes involved. Then again, the opposition is also the best in mass starts, so who knows.
There is, however, another interesting observation, which is the same as what might explain Uschi Disl's placement in the shooting heaviest category. This is that these athletes have a wide span of shooting results. They don't shoot their average, but can shoot both well below and well above. This means that while they can have many disastrous competitons on the range, they are also fully capable of hitting all 20.
Tora Berger
Wins: 28 (10,9%)
Individual: 5 (15,6%)
Sprint: 7 (6,9%)
Pursuit: 9 (11,4%)
Mass start: 7 (15,6%)
Median ski rank: 14
Rank (1-28): 25
Shooting %: 84,7
Rank (1-28): 12
If we include podiums, she appears to be a universalist with a head-to-head preference.
Andrea Henkel
Wins: 22 (5,8%)
Individual: 4 (7,4%)
Sprint: 5 (3,5%)
Pursuit: 8 (6,8%)
Mass start: 5 (7,9%)
Median ski rank: 10
Rank (1-28): 18
Shooting %: 85,3
Rank (1-28): 10
Close to a universalist. Pursuits over sprints conforms with stronger shooting than skiing, same as Berger.
Dorothea Wierer
Wins: 17 (5,1%)
Individual: 7 (16,3%)
Sprint: 4 (3,0%)
Pursuit: 2 (2,0%)
Mass start: 4 (6,8%)
Median ski rank: 18
Rank (1-28): 27
Shooting %: 85,8
Rank (1-28): 7
The second lowest ranked skier in the field, but with a tolerance for longer races. Surprisingly weak in pursuits for a strong shooter, but her mass start is also the weakest compared to her individual of everyone in this group, suggesting a preference for individual starts. That said, her podium % is actually the highest for pursuits, with a very low win-to-podium ratio (similar to Hanna Öberg).
Hanna Öberg
Wins: 15 (7,3%)
Individual: 4 (13,8%)
Sprint: 6 (7,8%)
Pursuit: 1 (1,6%)
Mass start: 4 (10,5%)
Median ski rank: 11
Rank (1-28): 19
Shooting %: 84,1
Rank (1-28): 15
Exact median in shooting. She is also getting faster late in her career (her skiing the last 5 seasons is very similar to Elvira's career average and median, and half of her sprint wins came in the last season), so she can be expected to end her career close to the median in skiing. Her strength in the individual, especially at the highest level (3 of 4 wins are at championships), conforms with her high variability - the ability to hit all targets mixed with terrible results.
Justine Braisaz-Bouchet
Wins: 14 (5,7%)
Individual: 3 (8,8%)
Sprint: 5 (5,3%)
Pursuit: 1 (1,4%)
Mass start: 5 (10,4%)
Median ski rank: 5
Rank (1-28): 9
Shooting %: 78,1
Rank (1-28): 26
The only one in this group who favours skiing over shooting, but as anyone who has watched biathlon in the 2020s can attest, she can go on absolute inspiration runs and hit everything. Comparing her to other veteran athletes in the sub-80% range, she clearly has a higher number of 95/100% races, which for a strong skier is almost certainly enough to be a victory canditate.
Helena Ekholm
Wins: 13 (8,2%)
Individual: 4 (17,4%)
Sprint: 2 (3,3%)
Pursuit: 3 (6,7%)
Mass start: 4 (13,3%)
Median ski rank: 12
Rank (1-28): 23
Shooting %: 90,0
Rank (1-28): 3
Like Wierer, a clear preference for shooting. However, she is also leaning over more strongly towards a head-to-head preference than Wierer, though not as strongly as Berger.
Also:
Linda Grubben (8 wins, 22 podiums)
Almost as good in pursuits, which points to a head-to-head preference. Her above-median shooting (85,2%) and mediocre skiing conforms with a notable dislike of sprints, although this is also the shortest distance.
Simone Hauswald (7 wins, 18 podiums)
Actually SP+MS if going by wins (which fits with a modest 81,0% career hit rate), but with a higher podium and top 10 rate in the individual.
Lisa Theresa Hauser (6 wins, 13 podiums)
Pretty clear preference for these two races. She has the lowest number of race wins among women for someone who has completed a career grand slam, which she did when she won the Östersund pursuit last season (incidentally, Vittozzi and both Öbergs also completed their grand slams last season).
Janina Hettich-Walz (2 podiums)
Very clearly favouring these two races, with one podium in each and much higher top 10 percentages. Dislikes pursuits the most.
Tereza Vobornikova (2 podiums)
The mass start is the only clear standout discipline for her. The second best is the individual, as to be expected from her strong shooting (87,6%), but the pursuit is also strong if we look at positions outside the top 10.
Monika Hojnisz-Starega (2 podiums)
Podiums in these disciplines and also clear top 10 preferences here. Generally better shooting (84,8%) than skiing, which conforms with sprint being her weakest race.
Mona Brorsson (2 podiums)
Her best top 10 % is surprisingly in the mass start, although her podiums are in the individual and sprint. Also a good shooter (86,7%).
Amy Baserga (1 podium)
Very clearly a better shooter (87,0%) than skiier, and has her only podium in the individual, but the mass start is the standout discipline in top 10 %.
HARD TO CLASSIFY:
Anais Chevalier-Bouchet (1 win, 23 podiums)
I must say that she is legitimately impossible to classify. She has an absolutely dreadful win-to-podium ratio. Her only win is a pursuit, but that is also where she has the lowest top 10 %. Her top 10 % is by far the best in mass start, but she has a clearly higher podium ratio in all the others.
Anais Bescond (1 win, 14 podiums)
I would say a universalist. Wins say sprint, podiums say individual + pursuit (which makes little sense with 82,3% hit rate), top 10s say individual + mass start.
Yuliia Dzhima (1 win, 8 podiums)
Has a win and half her podiums in the individual, as expected from strong 87,2% shooting. However, her sprint is stronger than her pursuit, which points towards a preference for individual starts, which is further confused by her mass start having the lowest ratio of podiums and top 5s, but the highest ratio of top 10s. So, not very clear outside of the individual.
Linn Gestblom (5 podiums)
Pretty much equal in sprint, individual and mass start. Best podiums in individual and sprint, but even higher top 10 % in pursuits and mass starts. Also, the relay GOAT is hardly averse to head-to-head. Overall, hard to tell.
Karoline Knotten (4 podiums)
All her podiums are in sprints, but it doesn't make much sense considering that she is a stronger shooter (87,2%) than skier. Her top 10 percentages are very evenly distributed across all types, with no clear preference.
EPILOGUE
One thing you might notice here is that the three smallest groups are the ones that include the sprint. It might be because with only two shootings, this is the discipline that is the easist one to "survive" and have a good day in, and therefore often invites winners from outside of the "inner circle" of multi-race winners. In short, people with a low number of race wins, often have those wins in sprint. Same with stray podiums. The individual comes second in number of "new" winners/podiums. The other two types are clearly behind, partly because they're dependent on success in other races.
Upcoming seasons
The 2026/27 season has one additional sprint and mass start, but two fewer pursuits. The individuals stay the same. So how does this change the prospects?
Winners
Kuzmina, although she is done winning races. Justine Braisaz-Bouchet and Hanna Öberg (when she returns). They all like sprints and mass starts, and dislike pursuits. Also Michelon and Vobornikova.
Losers
Vittozi and Jeanmonnot with strong pursuit preference (both have at least half of their wins in this discipline). Probably also Simon and Elvira. The loss of two pursuits might be worse for them than the extra mass start and sprint. No one among these four has won more than three sprints. Also Minkkinen and Voigt, who gravitate towards pursuits because of their strong shooting.
No clear preference
Going by the last season only - Magnusson, Bened, Kirkeeide.
I'm not sure what to think of this change personally. Although the mass start is the best race, I also love pursuits. Sprints are the most "routine" feeling race that I think sparks the least excitement in general. That said, a pursuit can sometimes be busted from the start if the "wrong" person wins the sprint (Hi, peak Tiril!). I guess more sprints over pursuits evens out the field a bit with regards to how people who miss out the top 60, also miss out on the chance for pursuit points. But this may be counteracted by the extra mass start. I would suggest that instead of 15+15 (top 15 world cup and top 15 of the week) for all mass starts, perhaps do 10+20 for some of them, to open up the mass starts to more potentials. Hard to say.
Anyway, hope you enjoyed this! Give me your thoughts and speculations.