r/flying • u/ricktherick PPL IR CMP HP S35 (KCDW) • 1d ago
Got myself into a bad, avoidable situation
I was flying at 17,000ft over the top of most of the weather, between 0C and -3C, when the cloud tops started rising. I knew it was plenty warm enough that if I picked up icing, a small descent would solve the problem, so I wasn't overly concerned. The reason I was up so high was because I was flying over the Carolinas and storms were popping up, so I could keep a visual on them...until I got into full IMC.
I was staying super vigilant about icing, and watching my ADS-B for the moderate+ areas of precip, knowing that my ADS-B weather had a 5-10 minute delay. I also knew I was only about 30 miles or 10 minutes until I was clear of the worst of it and would have smooth sailing after. As I was heading north along the coast, I watched an area of moderate to heavy precip moving west to east, and as I got closer, it looked like I would just nick the western edge of it. Based on how it was moving, I figured, with the ADS-B delay, it's probably already past me. It wasn't.
It felt like someone smacked my plane and poured a bucket of water on it at the same time. Heavy precip, heavy turbulence. Bouncing all over, I was immediately nervous that it would freeze. With the quantity coming down, I realize I fucked up badly.
I made an immediate left turn, knowing I was on the western edge of it, and was out of it in about 10 seconds, but that felt like way too long. It was the second time I ever drastically changed course prior to asking ATC permission under IFR. As soon as I was stable, I let them know what was going on, and they were awesome, gave me whatever I needed, asked if everyone was ok, then he gave the warning to everyone else flying through that area.
In my debrief, this is what I figure:
Things that I had going for me
- I was high enough that my IAS was pretty low, well below Va. If I were cruising lower, chances are I would have been well above Va.
- I had plenty of altitude to handle the situation if it started getting worse
- It was a nice warm day, so icing would have melted off quickly with a descent
- ATC gave me some good heads up after that about additional cells. Luckily right after I was VMC and could keep a visual on everything building
Things I messed up
- Got into IMC when I knew storms were building without real time radar
- Didn't ask ATC for an update on the cell I was heading towards. 5 seconds on the mic and they could have told me I was going to head into it
- Thinking I was so smart knowing that ADS-B has a delay. Well, it outsmarted me.
Lessons learned, everyone and everything's ok, but hoping by sharing my dumb move it can help someone else.
Edit: Thank you everyone for your thoughts and comments. Very interesting discussion on icing in this thread. Over my decade and a half flying piston (dealing with weather I can't climb over, terrain I need to plan around, etc.), I've tried to learn the difference between possible icing, known icing, what to avoid, and what falls within my risk tolerance. A fairly thin layer around 0C with plenty of outs has fallen into my risk tolerance, but it's occasions like these that lead to reflection and reassessment. All good pilots should continously reassess these. I'm a firm believer that overly conservative can lead to complacency and be just as bad as overly aggressive. Making sure I don't become overly aggressive, but continously reassess my risk tolerance usually keeps me out of these situations. When I find myself in one that is post worthy like this, I'm first of all humbled, and secondly a bit more conservative going forward.
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u/AntoineEx ATP 1d ago
In small planes when I expect thunderstorms I generally just fly VFR and below the clouds. It makes staying out of thunderstorms pretty easy and you can generally divert and land when you’ve had enough fun.
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u/ricktherick PPL IR CMP HP S35 (KCDW) 1d ago
Same. I have a soft rule that has now become a hard rule to avoid IMC with build ups around. That was actually why I was at 17k, it kept me above all of it..until it didn't. And it looked like it would only be about 5 minutes before I was out of it. What's the worst that could happen?? Well, that's why I'm here with this post, sharing the lessons I learned.
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u/Ok-Technician-2905 PPL IR 1d ago
Congrats on making it through and thank you for the write up.
Embedded T-storms are one of my big summer fears. I basically don’t fly through cumulus if I can’t see what’s beyond them. Plus towering cumulus can give you dangerous levels of turbulence before any precipitation starts, and thus with no ADSB warning.
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u/GoobScoob 1d ago
If the purpose of your post truly is to learn then let me offer my 2 cents.
Going into imc 0 to -3 without deice (I’m assuming because you never said what you’re flying) is just stupid regardless of whether or not there are storms.
That should have been the point where you exited the weather, not when you got thumped. Your plan was basically just continue till you got icing then descend? Over the mountains?
Just avoid the icing to begin with man. +5 to -5 clear skies only or an aircraft equipped for deice or anti ice.
Understand this two cents I offer comes from lessons learned by my own stupidity and experience as well. I have seen a half inch of ice accumulate within the span of 10 seconds. Literally 10 seconds. Count to 10 Mississippi and imagine that. Now I was in a beefy jet with all the bells and whistles but it was still astonishing how rapidly it accumulated.
As for ADSB, again you learned your lesson the hard way. Now you know. Once you spend some time in an aircraft equipped with onboard radar you’ll truly understand how limited and inaccurate ADSB or NEXRAD is. It’s not a tool you use for close range avoidance. It’s a long range planning tool. Close range it is eyeballs/radar when you have no other choice.
If you find yourself in a situation where you’re not 100% sure of the outcome THAT is the point where you need to change plans. Don’t wait till you get icing, don’t wait till you’re getting thrashed by convective.
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u/ricktherick PPL IR CMP HP S35 (KCDW) 1d ago edited 1d ago
I've been in thin layers plenty of times around 0C. I used to avoid any type of cloud below 5C, and then I slowly expanded my risk tolerance to allow more flexibility. Up until yesterday, my rule was always have an out if I'm in that situation, and of course avoid areas of reported icing. Thank you for sharing your experience, it's going to give me a more conservative adjustment of my risk tolerance.
(And no, not over mountains)
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u/geekmug CPL IR (ASEL) | UAS | AGI 14h ago edited 1h ago
Your success with flying in visible moisture that is slightly above 0C will depend greatly on the surface temperature of your wing. A wing generating lift causes a pressure change, which causes the area just aft of the leading edge to be colder than what your OAT sensor is reading. The cooling effect scales with the square of the true airspeed. For fast pistons (like 170 KTAS), a cooling of 5C would be at the upper-end of what is possible, so it's a safe rule of thumb.
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u/MattDamonsTaco PPL ASEL, chasing IR, but I only fly for funsies and recreation 1d ago
I have seen a half inch of ice accumulate within the span of 10 seconds. Literally 10 seconds. Count to 10 Mississippi and imagine that. Now I was in a beefy jet with all the bells and whistles but it was still astonishing how rapidly it accumulated.;
<Shaggy voice>
Like wow, Scoob! THat's pretty fucked up!
<\Shaggy voice>
HOLY CRAP. That's fucked up. Do you recall at what altitude you were flying when this occurred? Icing conditions where I fly can happen at any time of the year and I generally try to avoid them but have always been taught "so long as there's no visible moisture, you'll be fine." Carb ice is another story, of course.
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u/GoobScoob 1d ago
Hawkz arrival into SEA. 6k feet. Can’t remember exactly what time of year it was but it was just some cold soggy overcast winter PNW weather. Just turned off the arrival getting vectored for the runway. Preceding aircraft reported moderate icing so we knew we were going to get some but personally I’d have rated it as severe. It was still all over the aircraft even after passengers had deplaned.
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u/WNBA_Enjoyer ATP 1d ago
I don't know, going in and out of some small clouds around freezing with a clear and easy escape plan really isn't dangerous to me. But everyone's risk tolerance is different, I suppose.
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u/ljthefa ATP CL-65 737 CSES TW HP Ferry Flight Expert 1d ago
What are you flying because your flair still says student pilot
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u/WNBA_Enjoyer ATP 1d ago
I'm a 717 captain, but that doesn't mean I'm not a student.
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u/Nice_Cellist_7595 1d ago
Just my 2 cents - if you can’t see the buildups e.g. IMC and there is convection going on - radar or not - there is no way to safely navigate this environment in a GA plane. Significant turbulence can be found in building CB’s that don’t show up on the radar. It is also a dynamic environment and what was fine 15 minutes ago may not be fine now.
Your only other option is to stay below the bases. When traveling long distances and unfamiliar terrain this presents its own challenges especially if you had originally planned something else.
Having recently done something similar to this recently I opted to land at an alternate when the visual environment got complicated. Even if visual at 17k you still have to contend with the descent through those “puffy” clouds. Glad you made it back but please be more careful!
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u/Kemerd PPL IR 1d ago
Significant turbulence can also simply rip the wings off your plane.
I once, for fun, in Microsoft Flight Simulator, set the weather conditions to stormy and did some IFR.
At one point, my nose was pointed straight down at the ground, I was near Vne, and I was still ascending.
To that point, if you are ever caught in a storm, do not fight it or try to maintain altitude. You can pull enough g-forces to literally rip the wings off. Autopilot altitude off!
A trick I was taught is if you set your autopilot to vertical speed 0, it will not fight to maintain a specific altitude, but rather correct slowly to keep the wings level.
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u/Prof_Slappopotamus 1d ago
Point 2 on your mistake list should be your biggest takeaway. I am somewhat surprised ATC let you get that close to the cell without saying anything, but they're human too.
I would also sit down and think about your attitude about flying into a potential icing situation. I'm not going to tell you you were wrong or overly cavalier about it, but there's no chart that is going to tell you how quickly that ice will melt. Operationally, on any aircraft I've flown with manual anti-ice controls, we would turn them on at 10C or below going into visible moisture, so I think your impression of a "small descent" is a little off. What you described is too risky for me, personally. But I've also been out of GA for awhile so I haven't spent as much time with the briefing elements I normally would have when flying.
Glad you're here and glad you learned something.
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u/TinCupChallace ATC 1d ago
ATC weather radar is on a delay as well. I'll tell pilots about weather and tell them to lmk if they need to deviate. It's fairly often that pilots plow right through things that look horrible on my radar but they have a visual on it and they tell me it's clear and ok where they are. Also my radar is looking at (in OPs instance) ground to 24000 feet. It's very possible that he's flying over/under something that looks bad to me but clear to him.
I don't vector aircraft around storms unless they ask for help, and then I'm missing the precip by miles since my radar is delayed.
I'll tell you about weather and offer suggestions, but a bad heading on the pilots part is on them. A bad heading from me is on me. Since I don't have the full picture, often we have to meet in the middle if a pilot needs help. "This heading looks good to me but advise if it's not working for you".
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u/Prof_Slappopotamus 1d ago
Yea, I wasn't trying to place any blame on you guys, I've driven right through plenty of those "looks bad to me, but if you're good..." suggestions. On the flip side, if it's dark or I'm IMC and you suggest something like that, I'm taking it. I trust my radar, but I don't need something building up underneath me rapidly that hasn't shown up on the display yet.
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u/TinCupChallace ATC 1d ago
Ya I wasn't reading it as blame but just clarifying because a lot of people think ATC are all knowing. Half my equipment is broke. Half is working beyond it's certified life expectancy. Even our own management questions us during events on why we let things happen. We have A picture but not the entire picture.
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u/Prof_Slappopotamus 1d ago
Damn, that's...not encouraging to hear. I know everything is outdated and staffing is a bad word, but that brings it a little closer to home.
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u/JPAV8R ATP B747-400, B767/757, CL300, LR-60, HS-125, BE-400, LR-JET 1d ago
Never ever ever assume that ATC has your back on weather. It doesn’t and as far as a pilot is concerned they should never be surprised by ATC putting them into our around weather.
The United States is a shining tower on a hill when it comes to ATC services but even they get it wrong.
I was once told by a coworker “ATC would never give you a direct if it put you into weather.” Couldn’t be more inaccurate a statement and it was 100% a product of where they learned to fly and all their experience was (CONUS)
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u/Prof_Slappopotamus 1d ago
I assume nothing. Experience tells me generally I'll hear a heads up, but experience also tells me that chances are I'm asking for a turn no later than 70ish miles from whatever I don't like.
CLT Tower tried to drive me through a 2 mile wide red cell on final to 36L one day. "The Piedmonts in front of you didn't report anything". Don't care. That cell screams windshear to me, I'll take 36R or you can put me in a hold.
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u/ricktherick PPL IR CMP HP S35 (KCDW) 1d ago
Thanks for your insight. Just want to emphasize I'm not blaming ATC, blaming myself for not asking ATC what they saw. And new lesson learned from the comments below that ATC doesn't even have real time radar, I always just assumed they did. Certainly all of this will factor into future risk assessments.
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u/Prof_Slappopotamus 23h ago
Never thought you did, and I'm sorry if it came across like that. Happy flying!
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u/RexFiller CMEL IR BE55 1d ago
I was in that as well but have on board radar in my baron along with ADS-B. I got in before they got bad, but what I was seeing was a lot of new forming cells and rising clouds. Then after landing I looked back at the internet radar and it was wild seeing cells popping up and then also dissipated. Was not a typical front, but what ive heard called pulse storms. (Edit apparently its quickly dissipating cells forming mini cold fronts around them which forms new cells). I was seeing new cells on one radar sweep and then other cells being gone in a matter of minutes. I can only imagine being in one of those or trying to rely on ADS-B to dodge them.
Sounds like you learned a lesson on avoiding storms with ADS-B, you cant always rely on it for these pulse storms. I was seeing my ADS-B being 10 minutes old and showing completely different picture than my radar. Im glad you made it though and I hope you steer farther away from storms. Im super conservative and was at least 20 miles away and visual most of the time but what I was seeing on radar was very interesting.
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u/equal2infinity CPL IR BE35 1d ago
I was curious about the usefulness of onboard radar as it relates to growing cells that aren’t yet producing precip. Do you think it’s worth the cost and extra weight in that regard? I know a lot of guys that let theirs die or remove altogether.
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u/RexFiller CMEL IR BE55 1d ago
You will see them before you get a radar return but when you do get one you'll be able to avoid before it gets bad, hopefully.
My plane had it when I bought it but im not sure i would buy one. I saw a used one for $10k plus install so lets just call it $15k for a used old system or $30k for a new garmin one. That would be a hard sell since my strategy of stay far away is usually good but if youre doing a lot of flying in Florida then it might be helpful.
Its more of a nice to have thing than a necessity for a GA flyer but I definitely notice a difference between what I see on ads b and radar which can be helpful even in the light stuff
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u/equal2infinity CPL IR BE35 1d ago
Ok that seems to be the general consensus I’m getting. I flew a Baron yesterday that had a barely operational bendix radar. It uses the old tech that seemed to interfere with some of the newer instruments, so we left it off. We were able to pick thru the build ups fine without it. I’ve been shopping for my own baron and it seems hit or miss. Some have the latest GWX75, some have it removed altogether. I only have ADSB weather in my bonanza and I’ve done fine.
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u/RexFiller CMEL IR BE55 1d ago
Yeah i definitely wouldnt make it a deal breaker with the type of flying i do if i found a nice plane that didnt have it. But its a nice bonus if you find a nice baron that already has radar.
Thats crazy the Bendix radar interferes with the instruments and definitely unfortunate because a lot of the baron ones will integrate with GTN 750 which can act as the display and control unit for them.
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u/WNBA_Enjoyer ATP 1d ago
It entirely depends on the type of flying you're doing. Most people pull theirs out because they're heavy, expensive, and go mostly unused.
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u/AtariFerrariNH ATP HS125 CE500 CL60 B757/767 A320 1d ago
IMC with imbedded storms and no on board radar gives me the heebie-jeebies. Any time I've had to deal with storms in my bonanza I maintain VMC as a dead set rule.
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u/Flyward_Aerospace 1d ago
The thing I would pull out of this is not the radar, it is that your out was built on the ambient temperature and the ice you were about to meet does not care about that number. At the same OAT a convective buildup is carrying an order of magnitude more liquid water than the stratiform layer you would normally be picking your way through, so accretion rate at minus 3 in that cloud looks nothing like minus 3 anywhere else. Descending was still the right escape, and it was right precisely because it does not need the airplane to perform. Any plan that starts with climb, or even hold this altitude, is the one that quietly stops being available first while you are still deciding. Glad it worked out.
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u/yowzer73 CFII TW HP CMP UAS AGI 1d ago
Just because normal atmosphere changes temperature at about 2C per thousand feet doesn’t mean the air below you is definitely warmer. With unstable air, you could also experience a temperature inversion. Add in the weather environment you described, and there’s likely a front involved, too. You could have gone from what felt like an easy out to something even worse than what you experienced with no outs.
Besides what you already took away, I’d suggest a good weather review with an instructor that highlights your blind spots in this flight’s ADM.
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u/BeginningTotal7378 1d ago
ATC gave me some good heads up after that about additional cells. Luckily right after I was VMC and could keep a visual on everything building
Also note. Center radar is not as up to date or accurate as TRACON. Center can also be delayed.
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u/Lost_Cockroach6702 1d ago
The delay can be a lot more than 5-10 minutes. All that matters is there is a significant delay. I have a love hate relationship with ADSB. It can provide SA, but it is often used incorrectly.
ADSB is not a weather radar nor is it a means of deconflicting from traffic.
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u/Kemerd PPL IR 1d ago
If you are visual, even if you're IFR, you can ask ATC to divert you around. You didn't need to wait until going into IMC, as you saw they were happy to divert you and keep you visual!
Additionally, at the end of the day, even if they don't respond, or even if they tell you no, you are the PIC.
Copying a phone number and giving an explanation on why you deviated beats being dead!
And a note, instead of doing a left turn, next time do a 180 degree turn. You could've easily still been wrong about where you were.
Personally, I would not go into IMC if I knew there was cells, unless my plane was rating for known icing, I'd make the trip as long as needed (fuel permitting) to stay visual.
Generally, I don't mind doing IMC for approaches or altitudes at or below 10K ft, because it gives you 8k ft to climb out of it. I'd rather climb out than descend.
If a cloud is reaching up to 18k ft, it is likely a storm cloud.
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u/TomToddlesworth CFI 1d ago
Thanks for the post, but I'm not sure you learned anything if you think high altitude was "going for you" when it actually exposed you to hazardous conditions. Icing melting off "quickly in a descent" is also not guaranteed, especially when the descent might turn into a nose-down dive because your wings aren't generating enough lift
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u/ricktherick PPL IR CMP HP S35 (KCDW) 1d ago
Saying that altitude was something I had “going for me” is not the same as saying that being at that altitude, in those conditions, was the best decision. Obviously the altitude is also what put me at the freezing level, but it kept me visual for most of the flight so I could avoid build ups. That's part of the reason I reassessed the decision making that put me there in the first place. Once I was already in a bad situation, having altitude gave me time and energy and options that I wouldn't have had had I been lower.
I understand that ice won't magically melt the very moment you descend, although I had recently climbed and knew the temps below and knew it was a possible out.
More importantly, I find the “I'm not sure you learned anything” comment pretty disappointing coming from a CFI. I voluntarily posted a mistake, described where my judgment failed, and laid out some specific lessons and more conservative risk assessment I took away from it. I didn't have to put any of that in public, and the entire purpose was to let other pilots learn from it.
There is certainly room in my decision making to criticize, and of course I wouldn't have posted if I didn't welcome technically useful criticism. But dismissing the learning altogether because you disagree with the wording of one takeaway isn't especially constructive. As a CFI, I'd hope one of your goals would be to encourage pilots to openly debrief mistakes and improve from them, not make them wonder why they bothered admitting the mistake in the first place.
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u/Gravity_Wells ATP CFII GLIDER B727 B747 1d ago
I think you did just fine. We’ve all made mistakes. Nobody here can say they haven’t made a poor judgement call at some point. As one may say, “There are those that have and those that will.” What I like is that as soon as you recognized that the turbulence was more than what was safe, you knew which way to turn and you turned. Then you immediately called ATC and let them know why you had to exercise your emergency authority and deviate from your clearance. In other words, you aviated, navigated, and communicated: in that order. So simple but many people forget this when the sh*t hits the fan. Should you have not gotten into that situation to start with? Oh, I don’t know, maybe not. There are grossly negligent mistakes, and there are sort of normal mistakes. Seems like kind of a normal mistake to me. But once there you did exactly the right thing. And you did a postmortem to figure out how you got there. Now you understand a little bit better about how to interpret precipitation information that’s five or 10 minutes old. Flight route planning, freezing level, temperature dewpoint spread, escape routes, embedded thunderstorms: you’re thinking about the right things. It takes time to develop good judgement (and we never are done with that), just keep being careful, and when you make the occasional misstep, learn and grow. Sounds like you’re doing that. 😉
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u/rFlyingTower 1d ago
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
I was flying at 17,000ft over the top of most of the weather, between 0C and -3C, when the cloud tops started rising. I knew it was plenty warm enough that if I picked up icing, a small descent would solve the problem, so I wasn't overly concerned. The reason I was up so high was because I was flying over the Carolinas and storms were popping up, so I could keep a visual on them...until I got into full IMC.
I was staying super vigilant about icing, and watching my ADS-B for the moderate+ areas of precip, knowing that my ADS-B weather had a 5-10 minute delay. I also knew I was only about 30 miles or 10 minutes until I was clear of the worst of it and would have smooth sailing after. As I was heading north along the coast, I watched an area of moderate to heavy precip moving west to east, and as I got closer, it looked like I would just nick the western edge of it. Based on how it was moving, I figured, with the ADS-B delay, it's probably already past me. It wasn't.
It felt like someone smacked my plane and poured a bucket of water on it at the same time. Heavy precip, heavy turbulence. Bouncing all over, I was immediately nervous that it would freeze. With the quantity coming down, I realize I fucked up badly.
I made an immediate left turn, knowing I was on the western edge of it, and was out of it in about 10 seconds, but that felt like way too long. It was the second time I ever drastically changed course prior to asking ATC permission under IFR. As soon as I was stable, I let them know what was going on, and they were awesome, gave me whatever I needed, asked if everyone was ok, then he gave the warning to everyone else flying through that area.
In my debrief, this is what I figure:
Things that I had going for me
I was high enough that my IAS was pretty low, well below Va. If I were cruising lower, chances are I would have been well above Va.
I had plenty of altitude to handle the situation if it started getting worse
It was a nice warm day, so icing would have melted off quickly with a descent
ATC gave me some good heads up after that about additional cells. Luckily right after I was VMC and could keep a visual on everything building
Things I messed up
Got into IMC when I knew storms were building without real time radar
Didn't ask ATC for an update on the cell I was heading towards. 5 seconds on the mic and they could have told me I was going to head into it
Thinking I was so smart knowing that ADS-B has a delay. Well, it outsmarted me.
Lessons learned, everyone and everything's ok, but hoping by sharing my dumb move it can help someone else.
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u/Antique-Kitchen-1896 PPL IFR Night 1d ago
They say no flying into areas of storms without airborne radar. Now you know why.
It’s also been argued to go low instead of high if you don’t have the performance to go above the layers.
I feel these days there are a lot of YouTubers who shows themselves threading the needle in storms. And I wonder if they are leading people down a bad path. They always go on about ADM and safety, then go off and use ads-b or xm into the middle of a bunch of cells.