Hey r/mtgfinance, we wanted to post a quick update to our original thread from a few weeks back introducing our price comparison tool https://www.tcgmarketplace.ca - you can see the original thread here: https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1vmvz8f.

Firstly, we wanted to say thanks for all of the comments and feedback provided on the original thread. We took your feedback seriously and made some updates that we wanted to tell you about:

Reliability: 

• We upgraded our server infrastructure in order to improve search, providing faster and more consistent results. 
• We improved our card database and auto-complete so results are more accurate.

New Features:

• You can now search sealed product across all stores, not just singles
• You can search for all product types such as booster boxes, collection boxes, pre-release kits etc. with an empty search to discover any hidden gems
• You can filter by set and select the specific sets you’re interested in, making it easier to narrow down your results
• Multi-search now benchmarks against the 5 lowest prices per card so you can get a better idea of if there are better deals out there from various stores before deciding to purchase in bulk from a particular shop
• Added the ability to create an account without needing Gmail and also added Discord as an option for signing-up

For shop owners: We received some inquiries from shops wanting to get their inventory added to the website. If this is something you’re interested in, please send me a DM here on Reddit and I’ll help you through the process of getting onboarded.

As always, if you have any feedback or ideas, please let us know and we’ll do our best to act quickly!

This is mostly just some ramblings as I think about the Zeta drop tomorrow.

Economics 101, supply and demand set the price. At least that’s the gist of how this stuff works.

Supply is easy enough. You have the total number of a card printed - cards unopened - cards lost/destroyed - cards not for sale.

Demand is even simpler on its face. Just the total number of cards desired to be purchased. (Now that gets more complex when you think about what goes into demand: playability, hype, fomo, “investors”, desirability, art, etc.)

But what if there’s a secret third thing!?!? /s

Anyways, I’m curious as to the impact of two other factors: awareness and precedence. And I’d like to hear other opinions.

The example I’m going to use can be replicated dozens of times, so there has to be something here (imo).

[[Urza’s Saga]] at its cheapest rn is $35. To get the fancy halo foil version, of which there have been <150 sold on TCGplayer (and likely less than 500 in existence), it will run you $550. A crisp 15x premium.

On the other hand, [[Emeritus of Ideation]] is a $6 card, but if you want a serialized version of which there are exactly 500 in existence, the market rate is sitting around $2900. An almost 500x premium.

One of these is a fine, but niche, creature, while the other is a staple utility land for high level play in the most popular format.

Basically what I’m getting at is, the color banded treatment for the Chrome Mox dropping tomorrow, will almost certainly have less than 100 copies printed, based on my back of the napkin math from the pull rates they gave us. You can get a copy of the cheapest legal printing at $153.

Now I’m not trying to suggest it’s a $77k (500x) card, heck, I’m not sure it’ll even go to $2300 (15x).

But I’m asking why not? Is it because Tournament Promos and SLD chases and stuff like that are just less widely known about when compared to the marketing of serialized cards? Is it really just the tiny little “x/500” in the corner? Is it the precedent that’s been set that serialization is just worth a flat $2k? Is it all just irrational?

In theory the demand should be there, and the supply should be low. So what’s the secret third thing that actually moves the needle here?

I compared all 27 cards in the Masters of the Universe Superdrop with the cheapest positive English paper prices for the underlying cards, using separate nonfoil and foil comparables captured August 30. This is replacement-cost math, not a resale-price forecast.

Bundle results:

• Nonfoil bundle: $137.80 in current comparables vs. $149.95 retail (-$12.15 before tax)

• Foil bundle: $264.95 vs. $199.95 (+$65.00)

• Everything bundle: $402.75 in comparables vs. $334.99 retail

The foil headline needs a reprint-risk discount. Konda's Banner contributes $51.62 of Grayskull's $76.36 foil total, while Sakashima the Impostor contributes $50.03 of the Allies and Enemies $64.66 foil total. Both are scarce older foils that this release is directly reprinting.

The most balanced individual drop is Nyah-ha-ha! (Skeletor): $35.11 nonfoil vs. $29.99 and $55.26 foil vs. $39.99, without one card dominating the total.

Full methodology and card-by-card breakdown: https://tcgspikes.com/guides/secret-lair/is-the-masters-of-the-universe-superdrop-worth-it

Disclosure: I’m affiliated with TCGSpikes, and the article contains affiliate links. The URL above is the editorial article, not a retailer referral link.

How heavily would you discount the two scarce-foil comparables when deciding whether the foil bundle is actually favorable?

Wondering about everyone's opinion on the Marvel Super Hero dual lands, [[Hidden Lair]] [[Gleaming Bastion]] [[Gathering Place]] [[Training Compound]] and [[Dark Fortress]]

Seem to be great dual land options with little downside and good looking borderless options.

Charts on all of them look like a bottom with a ton of supply from it being so recent, but Hidden Lair borderless has a bit of an up tic already.

I was in my LGS today and came across a vintage land that was similar without providing colorless mana and was at $20 (should have taken note of the name). Not expecting these to jump overnight, but seem like a solid buying opportunity.

MTG Finance Recap – August: Hatsune Miku, The Hobbit, Modern & More

I took a bit of a break at the beginning of August, but the MTG market definitely didn't.

So instead of a regular weekly recap, here's a look at some of the most interesting price spikes from the past few weeks.

As always, these observations are not absolute truths. They're simply my interpretation of recent price movements. Sometimes there's a clear competitive reason behind a spike, sometimes it's Commander hype, and sometimes... honestly, I have no idea.

If you have a different explanation for any of these movements, let me know in the comments. That's one of the things I enjoy most about MTG Finance: trying to figure out why the market is moving.

Price references are based on the European market (Cardmarket and CardTrader) for English-language cards.

You'll find images of all the cards in the first comment.

MODERN

Let's start with Modern, where a couple of competitive strategies have been responsible for some interesting movements.

[[Fanatic of Rhonas]]: €10 → €18. Seeing play as a four-of in [[Eldrazi Ramp]], helping drive the price upward as the archetype gains popularity.
[[Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler]]: €1.5 → €4. Used in Devoted Combo, a deck that has also caused several spikes on MTGO, which we'll get to later.
PREMODERN
[[Iridescent Angel]]: €2 → €8. Showing up in the sideboard of some Reanimator lists.
HATSUNE MIKU

One of the biggest stories of the month has been the continued movement of the older Hatsune Miku Secret Lair cards.

This is actually the third major spike for several of these cards in just a few months.

The first spike came with the leak of the product.

The second followed the deck's spoilers, when it became clear that some of the interesting cards wouldn't actually be included in the Commander deck.

The latest movement came after the announcement that the Secret Lair would be print-to-demand.

The logic seems fairly straightforward: if people are now able to buy the product without worrying about a limited print run, they may also start picking up the individual cards they need to complete their decks.

Some of the biggest movers:

[[Sol Ring – Hatsune Miku]]: €20 → €70
[[Command Tower – Hatsune Miku]]: €20 → €60
[[Elvish Mystic – Hatsune Miku]]: €20 → €50
[[Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury – Hatsune Miku]]: €10 → €35
[[Shelter – Hatsune Miku]]: €3 → €10
[[Harmonize – Hatsune Miku]]: €5 → €30
[[Beloved Princess – Hatsune Miku]]: €1 → €5
[[Youthful Valkyrie – Hatsune Miku]]: €2.5 → €5

As usual with these special versions, I'd separate the playability premium from the collectibility premium. In this case, both seem to be contributing to the increases.

MYSTERY BOOSTER COMMANDER EDITION

The announcement of Mystery Booster Commander Edition, which will be distributed for the first time at MagicCon Atlanta on November 13, has also started moving some older cards.

The product introduces 59 new commanders, and some of them have already caused spikes in cards that could fit into their strategies.

[[Battle of Wits]]: €0.5 → €4. Other printings have also moved. The main reason seems to be [[Whtz, the Bibliophile]], which can potentially make use of the card's unique effect.
[[Ink-Treader Nephilim]] foil: €5 → €25
[[Dune-Brood Nephilim]] foil: €5 → €15

Both Nephilim spikes followed the reveal of [[Nephilim Epochal]].

[[Uchuulon]]: €1.5 → €5 after the reveal of [[Uugguu, the Omniplasm]].
THE HOBBIT

The Hobbit continues to generate Commander-driven spikes as players start figuring out which old cards fit the new commanders.

[[Thranduil, the Elvenking]] seems to be one of the more popular options so far, pushing several Elf-related cards:

[[Prime Speaker Vannifar]]: €1.5 → €6
[[Tyvar, the Pummeler]]: €3.5 → €10

Tyvar is particularly interesting because it can potentially find a home in Devoted Combo in Modern as well.

Another commander getting attention is [[The Great Goblin]], which has pushed:

[[Knucklebone Witch]]: €0.5 → €10
[[Wort, Boggart Auntie]]: €7 → €12

Other popular commanders such as [[Thorin, King of Durin's Folk]], [[Smaug the Impenetrable]] and [[Smaug the Magnificent]] are also having an impact.

[[Alchemist's Talent]]: €4.5 → €8.5
[[There and Back Again]]: €2 → €6
[[The Reaver Cleaver]]: €10 → €15
[[Glóin, Dwarf Emissary]]: €0.5 → €2
[[Gimli of the Glittering Caves]]: €2.5 → €8

Two more interesting movements:

[[Last Laugh]]: €1.5 → €5
[[Night Dealings]] foil: €2.5 → out of stock, with copies selling for as much as €20.

Both appear to be connected to [[Smaug the Impenetrable]] and [[Sahir, Visitor in Darkness]] strategies.

MARNEUS CALGAR

One of the more interesting spikes for me was [[Marneus Calgar]] Surge Foil, which went from around €40 to €85.

Initially, I assumed this was simply a collector-driven spike because we're talking about a premium version.

After looking into it further, however, there's a potential gameplay explanation as well.

A number of The Hobbit cards generate or interact with tokens, which can make Marneus Calgar more appealing as a Commander.

This is also a good example of something I find interesting about MTG Finance: sometimes the Commander itself spikes because a new set gives it a reason to become relevant again.

And when that happens, the premium versions usually move first and hardest.

SECRET LAIR: ODDS & ENDS

A leak involving Secret Lair: Odds & Ends, reportedly featuring [[Yennet, Cryptic Sovereign]], caused another interesting movement.

The connection that caught my attention is the artist, Ricardo Cavolo, who previously worked on Secret Lair Drop Series: Burning Revelations.

That Secret Lair moved from around €85 to €150, with the individual cards also seeing increased demand:

[[Akroma's Memorial]]
[[Inspiring Overseer]]
[[Consider]]
[[Price of Glory]]
[[Reckless Fireweaver]]
COLLECTING

On the purely collectible side:

[[Gandalf the White]] – Showcase Scroll: €15 → €30

This one looks much more like a supply/collectibility movement than a sudden change in competitive demand.

MYSTERY SPIKES

And then there are the movements where... I'm honestly not sure.

[[Shimmer]] went from around €2 to €5 on CardTrader, while the movement appears much less significant elsewhere.

Shimmer is on the Reserved List, so perhaps some people are speculating on future interactions with phasing, especially with Zhalfir expected to become relevant in 2027.

But that's just speculation. I haven't found a strong reason for the spike.

[[Indominus Rex, Alpha]] also moved from around €15 to €20, and once again, I couldn't find a convincing explanation.

If anyone has a better theory, I'm all ears.

MTGO

Magic Online is particularly interesting to me because, even when we're talking about very small numbers, these movements can tell us something about actual gameplay demand.

First up:

[[Acererak the Archlich]]: 0.5 → 1.5 tix. Played in Aluren Combo in Legacy. This isn't a new inclusion, but recent metagame changes may have brought the deck back onto players' radars.
[[Tranquil Grove]]: 0.5 → 1.5 tix. I'm not entirely sure about this one either. One possible explanation is increased interest in the card as a Premodern answer to Enchantress, although I haven't seen enough lists playing it to be convinced.
[[Minamo, School at Water's Edge]]: 0.05 → 0.5 tix before dropping back to around 0.15. The card is seeing play in Modern thanks to its interaction with [[Loki, God of Mischief]].
MONO GREEN LANDFALL

The recent Modern banlist changes also seem to have pushed some players toward Mono Green Landfall, with a few cards responding on MTGO.

[[Sazh's Chocobo]]: 0.1 → 1 tix
[[Icetill Explorer]]: 0.8 → 3 tix

In Premodern, a particular Reanimator list put up a result, causing:

[[Petradon]]: 0.04 → 0.4 tix
DEVOTED COMBO

Finally, we get to the deck that probably generated the most interesting MTGO movements this month: Devoted Combo.

The deck received renewed attention with the arrival of [[Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu]], and several of its key cards started moving significantly.

[[Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler]]: 0.006 → 0.2 tix
[[Leyline of Abundance]]: 0.5 → 4 tix
[[Nature's Rhythm]]: 0.1 → 1 tix
[[Dryad Arbor]]: 2.5 → 5 tix

Both Leyline of Abundance and Nature's Rhythm are played as four-ofs, which makes them particularly sensitive to increased demand.

Devoted Combo is definitely an archetype I'll be keeping an eye on. If it continues putting up results, some of these cards could have further room to move.

I originally covered many of these market movements on METAGAME, where I regularly write about MTG Finance alongside spoilers, gameplay, deckbuilding and competitive Magic.

If you'd like to read more of my MTG content, you can find my articles there.

I also make videos about Magic on YouTube, and post additional MTG content on Instagram and TikTok under u/paolothewall182.

If you noticed another interesting spike this month—or if you disagree with any of my interpretations—let me know in the comments.

What did I miss?

Thanks for reading!

Right now, on both Best Buy and Amazon, you can buy SOS Draft Night for $74.99.

Just doing some quick math based on the current prices of an SOS Play Booster Display and SOS Collector Booster Display on TCGPlayer:

Real Value:

• 12 Play Packs = 12/30 × Play Booster Display ($141.51) = $56.60
• 1 Collector Pack = 1/12 × Collector Booster Display ($511.98) = $42.67
• Draft Night sealed value: $99.27

Meanwhile, you can buy it for $75. That's an instant 32.4% gain on a product that, IMO, is likely to keep appreciating for a long time.

The weird part is that Draft Night is sitting at $84.99 on TCGPlayer. So for some ungodly reason, the market is still undervaluing this product even though the sealed contents are worth almost $100.

If you're buying from Amazon, their credit card + delayed delivery gets you 6% cash back, too.

Plus you get a bunch of lands.

Note: I am just a very analytical person that hosts local game nights as we do not have a good LGS in the area. Please try to stay nice in the comments.

Hello again.

Thought I'd continue sharing some positions of a few more singles and sealed, not as many this week. Loving the discussion and great conversation from last week!

These were all purchased the week of August 24th 2026.
Once again, this is my take; not financial advice, just a dude that likes cardboard.

Shout out to u/DeadSouthAmerica on the call out of Donnie's Bo, the PZA "Godzilla" treament of Shadowspear. In person, the foil is a bit darker than I expected and didn't "pop" like Brainstorm or Path.

Donnie's Bo - Shadowspear - Foil 3/20.85 - Current THB/List versions are ~$42 (falling based on this reprint) which it should settle soon as TMT will be less opened now its 6 months from debut. HOLD 12 Mo

A few different videos and posts have brought up Stock Up reprint in SOS and I'm definitely buying in, specificaly the Mystical Archive version. I debated on picking up 1-2 of the JP Alternate Art, however I'm going to wait for now as they carry a 4x price tag.

Stock Up - Non-foil 3/1.60 - The Mystical Archive treatment is cool (much better than previous STX) and over time I believe this can do well. I do not think it will reach historic highs of ~$11 but $5-6 seems fair. HOLD 9-12 Mo

I've been watching the "remastered sets" for a while debating on jumping in. Innistrad, Ravinca and Dominaria. All have jumped 60-80% in the last 12 months and the sourness of the DMR set I believe has worn off, also seems to be the best at the current price. Both Ravinca and Innistrad have both spiked in price where Dominaria seems to be slower and more gradual. I pulled the trigger this week on DMR draft boxes as they were a good price.

Dominaria Remastered Draft Booster Box - 2/249.99

Last I wanted to share something I learned this week, ROSS, Dress for Less sells Magic the Gathering boxes. I just checked my local one today, which they had some in stock. No big deals like what some are posting, but I like the idea of going to "untypical" places that might price the boxes incorrectly or clearance them to get rid of stock.

Hello! I have created a website to save and track Cardtrader cards by price and conditions. The website is called ManaAlert and it works with user accounts, notifying you via email of the price reduction of the cards.

I have set it up for those like me who are interested in certain cards and like to take advantage of deals.

The website is not finished, it is still in a "beta" state. I promote it now so I can receive feedback and improve it with it.

All features are completely free and it has been created as a personal project. If you have any questions about how it works, I'll be happy to answer them :)

DISCLAIMER: I used AI as pair programming level.

https://manaalert.com/

EDIT: Aight, I'll get it set for multi user and put a link out shortly!

Howdy-

I wasnt happy with the normal apps. I play and collect, but have MTG as a serious asset class (6-figures). In the finance world we have incredibly robust tools to understand price, movement, relationships, etc. but nothing really in this space besides "here's my collection and the value"

I vibe coded this (I know, I know, I'm not an engineer.)

I'm using 3 different data sources across a couple paid APIs (TCG Player, mp, Pricecharting) and then adding in median listing price, last sale, price floor, velocity, days of supply, etc. to make a "smart price". This is by far the hardest part and most definitely not a perfect science.

Some screenshots below, more depth in the carousel.

I like to buy looking at the relationship between CB's and PB's over time, so a lot of the stats are based on the relationships between the two.

If there's interest I'm happy to open it up. It's free, I made it for myself and if it helps others enjoy the game I'm down to keep it that way.

Functionality (for now):

-Import/Export, based on TCGPlayer data format

-Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly briefs (email-able)

-Tax and Insurance lots

-Market Scan

-Backtesting (semi robust) strategies

-Charts

-Watchlist

-"Tools" - Grading ROI calc, liquidity scores, what if simulator.

-Ability to share a static link to see a portfolio snapshot.

Thanks!

Starting one a little earlier today so there can be some discussion pre - drop.

Interesting set of lairs coming out today. With the Zeta drop on Wednesday, I will be going fairly light on these as my focus is entirely on that drop on Wednesday.

Personally - I will be getting a few of the Dan Happ ones, due to the bristly bill reprint and I love the art. I will also end up picking up a few lo-fi girls, as the conversation around it seems to be strong, purely a gamble pick up on my end.

What are you buying? What are you skipping? Does two secret lairs this week impact what you are purchasing?

Has anyone else experienced a dramatic increase in cost for shipping a 1-4 cards via padded envelope via USPS? Just a year ago I was paying $3-5 per, not it is $7.50-$9. What happened? Is there a better alternative?

Opening up discussion for more broad speculation discussions. What are people’s thoughts on the upcoming sets/releases? What did I miss (synergies/tribes/other)?

Masters of the Universe SL (Sep. 26)
Specifics: Humans
Comments: No real big build around here. Just visual upgrades for decks.

Reality Fracture (Oct. 26)
Comments: Difficult to gauge this one with the current spoilers. It feels like a slightly power crept core set right now. Aside from a few singles on release, I’m leaning toward skipping this set for Star Trek.

Foundations Commander Deck (Oct. 26)
Comments: Skip.

Star Trek (Nov. 26)
Speculation: EoE, Unfinity Lands/playables.
Specifics: Aliens? Vehicles/Spacecraft.
Comments: Unsure if the newness(supply) of EoE will prevent things from moving too much. The set has been harder to come by though.

Nauctis (Feb. 27)
Specifics: Merfolk, Crab, Lobster, Nautilus, Starfish, Trilobite.
Comments: Likely a few all stars mixed in these creature types that if they don’t see a reprint, I’d expect big changes as we get closer to release.

Kamigawa Titan Break (June. 27)
Speculation: Kamigawa Neon Dynasty, Ikoria.
Specifics: Godzillas. Mechs/Mecha.
Comments: Gozillas, Comic Art Ikoria, and Showcase Kamigawa Neon Dynasty are the ones I think will move most.

Zalfir (Oct. 27) Not enough information yet.

MB Commander Edition (Nov. 26) Specifics: Curses/Aura, Phyrexian, Angels, Cats, Merfolk, Spellslinger, Ninjas/Rogues, Squirrels, Dinos, Planeswalkers, Land matters, Sea Creatures, Mounts, Ooze, Deck size matters, Equipment.
Comments: Maybe too many options here, so it will likely only move the needle on a select few.

Hobbit Battle of the Five Armies (2027)
Specifics: Battles.
Comments: Most speculation here already overlaps with Hobbit/LotR so you’ve missed the boat if you don’t already have most of the cards you’d want.

Future Marvel Set (2027-2028)
Speculation: Spiderman, Marvel Super Heroes
Comments: Seems obvious that with each subsequent set, previous cards from the marvel universe will pop off.

Just tried to send a tracked package (.08 oz) through USPS and the total cost was $8.30. The card marketplace I use has the buyer pay a flat $4.99 fee for USPS Ground Advantage. So I just lost $3.31 on this sale. How is that fair? Does anyone have a better option for tracking packages cheaper? Or at least closer to the $4.99 cost? Thank you in advance!

Collector Boosters packaged in Omega Single Boxes are worth (on average) 40% more than loose collector boosters once things settle down!!! Some are worth double or more what a loose pack is worth. They are an excellent “hold” product. Read on for more….

————————————————————-

Have you wondered what is going on with Collector Omega Booster Boxes that contain a single pack but seem to be listed for, and sell for, much more than a loose pack?   Is it a scam?  Is it real?  Why on earth does it happen?    Well in the post I address the basic question and bring some data to bear on the potential causes of what I am dramatically calling “The OMEGA Effect”. 

Thesis Statement:

Omega Boxes aren’t simply packaging for a collector booster.  They’re a distinct sealed collectible with a dramatically smaller surviving population than the boosters themselves.  At release, the market largely values the Omega as one Collector Booster and because they are frequently the target of quick flipping scalpers they often sell for under market.  As the product ages, however, the packaging itself becomes scarce, and sealed collectors increasingly value the Omega as an intact product rather than merely valuing its contents.

On average, across all printed collector sets, Omega Boxes sell for 40.64% +/- 0.10 SE higher than loose collector packs.

The variance is high on the effect.  The median premium is a more modest, but still significant, 23.05% and the range goes from essentially zero to an eye-popping 2.59x multiplier.  But that isn’t an outlier, ~26% of collector omega’s have a multiplier of 50% or more over loose packs.

What is Causing it?   

The potential explanations below are a combination of what I’ve heard others say and what I came up with as a result of my own digging:

1)        A case of mistaken identity, with collector buying one thinking it’s a full box

2)       Tamper proof piece of mind, with collectors buying these because they know they haven’t been resealed or taken from a cracked box that already yielded a chase mythic

3)       The myth of differential pull rates, with rumors flying that pull rates are higher in these packs

4)       Some like it flashy, with people like the packaging better for display, particularly if you are holding sealed they look nice on the shelf. 

5)       Scarcity, maybe there are fundamentally fewer of these around

All of these explanations merit some examination and its quite possible that all of them are simultaneously operating.  Lets look at them one by one.

1)       The mistaken identity case must have some merit.  We’ve all seen the ebay sales of omega boxes sold at the same price as a collector booster box and listed in a way designed to trick the buyer.  But there are lots of ebay sold listings for older sealed omega boxes that were very clear about what they were and sold at a premium of 20-50% higher than a loose pack.  More telling is that TCG Player has a unique listing for Omega Boxes that is distinct from loose packs and its crystal clear what it is, but the premium remains.   Mistaken identity fails to explain the price premium on its own.

2)       The tamper proof piece of mind idea likely also carries some merit, but in this case we have a control option.  The “minimal packaging” collector booster category on TCG Player.  These are the white sleeves with the set symbol on them and a pack within.  These do not appear to carry a premium, which they would if it was just the seal that people cared about.

3)       I’ve only really heard the rumor about different pull rates regarding the dragon cards on Commander Legends (TCG market for Omega Boosters of this set are $158.58 vs. $59.33 for loose packs) but it’s possible that people think similar things about other sets. 

4)        The idea that people like the packaging makes sense to me.  There are collectors of sealed specifically who want to display their collections, and the packaging absolutely makes a difference.  The look of the Omega Box, so reminiscent of the Full Display, is much nicer on the shelf than a loose booster pack.

5)       The scarcity explanation dovetails with the prior explanations and its really interesting.  There is no way to know precisely how much omega packs exist relative to regular collector booster packs, but we can infer that they are much rarer in the wild after things settle down with a set because the number that exist on TCGplayer for older sets is usually zero listings.   There are a couple of reasons for this. 

a.   First, I believe that the initial print run for Omega Packs is much lower than the packs included in booster boxes and/or slipped into specialty products.  This is because Omega Packs are sometimes unavailable online at all and when available, its only from select big box retailers.  Usually you have to get them yourself in person.  If you just take the numbers of big box retailers that carry Omega Packs relative to game shops and shippers carrying Display Boxes and apply some simple assumptions about allotments per store, I estimated that something like 9 to 18% of packs are Omega Packs.  Less if you factor in draft night and gift bundle products.

b.       Second, by the nature of who buys them, Omega Packs mostly get ripped.  The buyers of Omega Packs are either scalpers or average Joe players.  The latter will often rip these and gamble.  The former is in a hurry to offload them quickly on ebay for a quick buck.  This seems to result in a small wave of omega boosters right after release online that undercut the loose boosters before selling through the limited stock.  The buyers of individual loose packs are usually looking to rip them, as logic would dictate that if you want to hold them as an investment you’d buy a sealed box.  So the Omega Boosters, undercutting the market, are rapidly sold off and mostly opened.  This is happening like clockwork with the Hobbit set right now.

So I think that scarcity is the biggest driver of the premium, combined with people liking how they look and maybe some influence of the other aforementioned factors.  And before you say that its silly that scarcity of a particular kind of packaging should increase the value of a collectible by 20-40% (or more), just remember that we are talking about collecting cardboard.  So if any of it matters, it all might matter.

What drives variation in the strength of the Omega Effect?

Like all things, demand and scarcity are the ultimate drivers and scarcity surely goes up as time goes by.  The Omega Effect starts around zero (no effect) or even negative (sold for cheap) and then the gap between loose and omega packs grows each year.  Set popularity has a weak additional effect, but time since release is the primary factor.   

​ 

How did I arrive at these conclusions? 

I pulled together the TCG Market Price of all categories of booster pack from all collector booster sets from Throne of Eldraine through the Hobbit.  These included Omega Boosters, Minimal Packaging Boosters, Loose Boosters, and the per-pack price of a sealed Booster Box.  Where that information was not available because of low sales volume I combed recent sales on ebay to try to piece together a median price.  I then took the data table and pulled together the summary statistics for the Omega Box premium relative to the other kinds of packs. Minimal Packaging, Loose Packs, and the per-pack value of booster displays were pretty similar so I just focused on loose packs as a comparison point.

Implications

All other things being equal, if you could reliably get your hands on 12 omega packs at MSRP, that is a dramatically better long term hold than a sealed collector booster display.    Of course the issue here is that you can’t reliably get these in bulk, so unless you have an insider track it remains an odd little quirk of the MTG collectible market and not really an investment opportunity.

I know they were in a winning CEDH deck at Breach the Bay, but MTGprices has them at an absurd amount but TCGplayer had LP foils sell for 200 USD. Do you think the price would hold? There has only been 1 print in foil.

This really caught me off guard since the average American is feeling a squeeze everywhere else. My gut tells me that they would cut back, but I suppose there is an argument for pausing things that are rapidly increasing in cost - meals out, movies, etc - and instead spending that money in hobbies.

We’ve been seeing prices go up across the board, and I wonder if other things remain relatively unaffordable - including housing - if we’re going to see a continued run on the prices of Magic, Pokemon, and sports cards .

Are many of you spending more on hobbies? I’m definitely not - but that’s more a product of my limited time than resources or cost.

Sorry if this is not spec related but just curious if manapool sellers have advice on this.

I recently sold a couple booster boxes through manapool and the buyer happens to be a shop in my neighborhood. At first I thought I should call them and ask if they would prefer me to just drop off today in person to save on shipping. Then it occurred to me that manapool doesn’t have a “ship without tracking” option so I would need to purchase a shipping label anyway in order to provide tracking with manapool and satisfy that the order had been shipped. Fine. Then I thought maybe I would just buy a shipping label but deliver in person anyway to eliminate the risk of anything being damaged in the mail. It then occurred to me that if I provide a valid shipping number but that shipping number never gets scanned in I might be setting myself up for a false dispute…..

Has anyone ever hand delivered something they sold on manapool and how did it go?

Sorry and thanks.
T

The eight-drop Superdrop goes live tomorrow. Using the cheapest existing tournament-legal paper printings as replacement-cost comparables, the full nonfoil lineup totals $244.22 against $239.92 in modeled retail—only $4.30 ahead before tax, shipping, or reprint-driven price declines.

The strongest individual nonfoil comparisons are Gene Luen Yang at $54.91 (+$24.92), Dan Hipp at $52.02 (+$22.03), and Marvel Romance at $39.21 (+$9.22). Ian Miller and Lofi Girl are roughly break-even; Robin Eisenberg, Marvel Pets, and The Hulk are underwater on raw replacement cost.

Full methodology and card-by-card breakdown: https://tcgspikes.com/guides/secret-lair/is-a-perfectly-normal-superdrop-worth-it

Which one, if any, are you buying tomorrow—and are you looking at foil or nonfoil?

Worzel, the Protector can create 10 Scryb Sprites as her ultimate. Who wouldn't want to dump 10 actual copies from 4th or 5th Edition onto the battlefield? Stock up now before Worzel goes to print this November!

FAQ

Q: Are you serious?

A: Not really. But Worzel is probably my favorite of the MBC commanders, so I didn't want to be left out on the 5% chance that everyone has the same idea as me.

Q: Should I stock up on any other cards that can be used as tokens, like Giant Badger?

A: Maybe. Black Lotus is also a cool card that Arzakon makes, might be worth picking up a couple copies.

I have a set of cards I want keep until kids graduate. I would like to look at cards when wanted but want to keep the cards in good condition so I can sell later. Any advice on storing cards for a long time would be helpful. Cheers.

When I first saw this card in the shadows over baldurs gate secret lair, I honestly thought it was going to be coming out around $30+ but it's stayed in the mid $6's and now is low $7's.

Is gooner-focused investing only viable as long term holds, and is it on all gooner-related material, or only anime girls to draw in the one-piece crowd?

Honestly looking at the price charting, it's jumped around 18% in a few months. Not terrible, but not the explosive growth I had expected. I mean come on it's the shadowheart romance scene on a card.

I figured Reddit is the best place to ask this kind of thing.

(Edits: clarity, spelling)

Where demand is likely driven by premodern, of which most major events such as Lobstercon and Europe championship tournaments allow gold border cards.

There are players who are intentionally out to “pimp” their decks with GB versions. And certain world championship decks are also sought after such as the Kai Budde ones