Physical MD trader. Moved from a commodities analyst seat and I know trade events and general networking is the key terminal for meeting and closing, but since AI has made it so easy, thinking of building a outreach program since I also know python.

What I have in mind is a weeks worth effort so I’m just wondering how effective are cold emails and LinkedIn outreach? The cold emails I tend to get are mostly just rubbish but I do respond to odd sensible ones and LinkedIn has mainly been people reaching out to me, most of them with productive intentions. I feel like all the “cold” emails I’ve sent have been received well as my assumption is the counterparty had previous knowledge of the firm.

Looking to get insight and opinions on how you respond to cold outreach and what you think the general consensus is regarding the same

Thanks

So I noticed in the last couple of days trump is attacking in the middle of week and he makes careless statements similar to the ones he used to make at the start of the war. could the latest deal with Venezuela, the d day sanctions, the somewhat manageable prices and the relative increase in oil volume through the strait gave Trump a renewed feel of self assurance and confidence to act in such a counter productive way or am I reading too much into this?

The U.S. has secured a deal to control 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. A debate has been sparked discussing if this is even legal. Experts say the deal is unlikely to lower U.S. gas prices in the short term.

OPEC solved our energy crisis in the 80s ironic Trump kills it during another shock.

Implied dark traffic, Bab al Mandab, Malacca, Singapore all down today.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

PANTANASSA,DHT REDWOOD,CAPTAIN LEON - added to the 26/27th Aug data as they popped up near India/Srilanka

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if i messed up with double counts/fills 8.55-2.5 (oman/Fujairah)=6.05mb.

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Note a lot of Saudi oil that used to go south is now going north. Its hard to tell as the Suez Canal traffic doesn't seem to have public easy to access data. Possibly 2-3mb going north from Yanbu. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: BIVOLA,SARD,ANDREIOS,RORA,BUALA

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: PRIMA TANGGUH LVI,EAGLE VELLORE,TP PROGRESS,C. INNOVATOR,TATESHINA

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_daySea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

The U.S. military attacked two Iranian government tankers as part of the round of strikes that took place on Tuesday, U.S. officials said.

This is the first time the U.S. military has struck Iranian tankers in retaliation for Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz — rather than to prevent them from violating the naval blockade.

A U.S. official said the move was part of a new "tanker for tanker" policy approved by President Trump to further deter Iranian attacks on tankers that move through the strait.

According to early reports, he told the president the United States is losing the war with Iran and does not have enough equipment to continue it, as well as expressing frustration that it has prevented Pentagon budget from getting passed.

Also noteworthy, the army secretary was a personal friend of VP Vance and an expert on drone warfare. (Edit: as someone pointed out in the comments, more accurately he was The advocate for taking drone warfare seriously and Hegseth firing the real experts who work for him seems to have been one of the reasons he decided to actually resign)

The chief of staff of the army is also currently vacant, so this resignation renders the army with neither a permanent civilian or military leader.

could this have any meaningful impacts on the war in Iran, such as making it more difficult for the United States to maintain blockade or making it more difficult to convince others to trust the escort missions through the strait of Hormuz?

I saw a fox news article claiming at least one refinery is shutting down briefly. I'm sure some platforms have must be shutting down as well.

It would appear five SAUDI oil/chemical tankers are on the move.

- VLCC SIDR is in ballast and was making a dark transit in, likely to a port in SA while it was hit in the Hormuz, by three projectiles from Iran (as reported by UKMTO.)

Right after, 4 SAUDI tankers were seen to make their way out of the GoO

- VLCC QASBA fully laden with 2 million barrels, is reportedly headed to Daxie #China
- VLCC QAMRAN, also fully laden with 2 million barrels, outbound - no destination mentioned
- Panamax YAQUT, had made PG run in/out dark between 23rd-27th, loaded up at Al Jubayl and is now headed for Hazaria in India
- Medium Range, NCC FAJR also made a PG run in/out dark 19th-26th and came back out laden from Al Jubayl, headed for Hazaria, India.

"Can you believe it, we're buying that tar and refining it Houston, and polluting the air, despite having the most oil under our feet than any other nation".

So, what changed?

It's useful to include examples when confirmed by both western and Iranian media. I'm writing this as the cost of diesel and natural gas is soaring in the UK.

Has this ever happened before?

It would appear one of the two VLCCs which Iran claims to have hit.. SIDR and Senegal Prosperity is spilling crude. SAR images on Sentinel/Copernicus just landed for the region.

There are now about 43½ million barrels left of what was allotted for release earlier this year.

This seems to be going in the wrong direction, and no obvious trigger to reverse this trend; if anything, things are getting worse.