r/probabilitytheory • u/Babarkhan1988 • 10h ago

[Research] [ Removed by moderator ]

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u/PopeRaunchyIV 8h ago

Can you say more about how this fits in the probability theory sub?

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u/Babarkhan1988 7h ago

Yeah.. It's just Experience & Research.. Lets see

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u/PopeRaunchyIV 7h ago

Maybe explain what this is, is there a probability model underlying these lines?

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u/Babarkhan1988 7h ago

Good question. To clarify, the lines aren't generated from a formal probability model. They represent a conditional technical-analysis scenario based on support/resistance, market structure and liquidity zones.

When I use “probability,” I mean that if BTC gets rejected from the $80K–$82K supply zone and then loses $74K, the likelihood of moving toward the next support levels ($70K and $62K–$63K) increases.

A proper probability model would require historical data, defined events and backtesting to calculate actual probabilities. This chart is more of a visual/conditional scenario rather than a statistically validated model.