Russia planning attack on Poland to test Nato resolve, US warns

[u/TheTelegraph]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_reddit_test-nato-resolve-us-warns/&accesscontrol=facebookchannel_open

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[u/ScaredPractice4967]

Poland have been preparing for this since Russia invaded Ukraine.

[u/LoafyLemon → u/ScaredPractice4967]

Since Georgia*

[u/talldata → u/LoafyLemon]

Since Russia has existed.

[u/Ok-Double-414 → u/talldata]

At least 1939 sept.01

[u/WXbearjaws → u/Ok-Double-414]

Russia has been fucking around with Poland since the days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth… Poland used to be one of the largest, strongest countries in Europe back in the day before they got tag-teamed by Russia, Prussia, Sweden and systematically dismantled

[u/RevolutionaryAd1144 → u/WXbearjaws]

The partitioning was Austria not Sweden, but the wars in the 1500-1700’s did involve Sweden

[u/Imreman → u/RevolutionaryAd1144]

Sorry, we where quite not-nice back then..

I hope the new subs makes up for it a bit? :)

[u/LittleHornetPhil → u/Imreman]

And the new shiny NATO membership 😎

[u/DramaticWesley → u/Imreman]

Every strong country has a dark past.

[u/Branwyn- → u/DramaticWesley]

No every human civilization has a dark past. Humans are quite evil

[u/Common-Ad6470 → u/Ok-Double-414]

The difference this time being that Poland isn’t being fucked on two fronts with the Nazis and Ruzzians…👌

[u/blippityblue72 → u/Common-Ad6470]

Poland would kick Russia’s ass. Ukraine was way less prepared than Poland is and doesn’t have access to most of the weapons Poland does.

[u/Commisioner_Gordon → u/blippityblue72]

Poland could roll into Moscow within a month. They’ve been preparing for this since the dissolution of the USSR and have access to the most advanced assets at NATOs disposal

[u/ZephRyder → u/Common-Ad6470]

Poland v Russia with NATO/Germany behind then?

Epic.

[u/HealthyBits → u/ScaredPractice4967]

Out of all the NATO countries they shouldn’t go for Poland.

Poland is so ready to fk them up. It will be real messy.

[u/AtmosphereNom → u/HealthyBits]

I don’t want to see a war, but if I have to see a war, I would like to see Poland to win and somehow destroy and neutralize everyone.

[u/juwyro → u/AtmosphereNom]

Make the Poland Lituanian Commonwealth great again.

[u/Stahl_Scharnhorst → u/AtmosphereNom]

Complete Polish dominance.

[u/Moo_Kau_Too → u/[deleted]]

'no vermin may enter the land that is held by polish hand'

.. precisely what i was singing to myself opening the thread

[u/bloviatingbloviator → u/Moo_Kau_Too]

Unless you are 40 to 1, your lives will soon be undone...

[u/CthulusLittleAngel → u/bloviatingbloviator]

Spirit of Spartans, death and glory

[u/ijuinkun → u/[deleted]]

Too bad Poland doesn’t still have the Winged Hussars.

[u/Feature_Ornery → u/ijuinkun]

It would be bad ass of them to paint Hussar wings on their helos and jets.

[u/Current-Function-729 → u/ScaredPractice4967]

> The goal of the Russian provocation would be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. It could be launched in a matter of months.

I refuse to believe the west would be this stupid. They would just escalate support.

[u/Ok_Midnight4809 → u/Current-Function-729]

I don't get the logic. Russia "accidentally" invades Poland and collectively we agree that in order for them to withdraw we hang Ukraine out to dry, rather than, I don't know, just shooting at them? Makes no sense at all

[u/SmileAggravating9608 → u/Ok_Midnight4809]

I'd say it depends on how it's done. Russia doesn't do frontal assaults initially. First comes information warfare, fake or real local Russians being wronged, provocations, false flags, etc. Like donbass and such before 2022.

Then comes an actual invasion. But here I'd assume false flag or "oops" scenario. Even something like a few drones hitting a gov or civilian outpost, jets overflying, maybe a glide bomb to a border outpost, etc. Or they discussed it but decide not to.

[u/findingmike → u/SmileAggravating9608]

It takes years to do that well. Russia doesn't have years. Eight oops scenarios in a month is just seen as someone attacking you.

[u/SmileAggravating9608 → u/findingmike]

Yep. The interesting point here isn't that this was brought up, it's that the US under trump brought it up. It must be more serious than other "Russia intends to...".

[u/AlfredtheGreatBitch → u/SmileAggravating9608]

The Hitler game plan

[u/NaiveChoiceMaker → u/Ok_Midnight4809]

We didn’t have a great plan to defend Ukraine, admittedly.

We’ve been planning to defend NATO members since 1949, however.

[u/JerryCalzone → u/Ok_Midnight4809]

russia hopes that AFD will have an ultra majority in Germany - and they promise restart reelations and trade with russia because for them it is connected to prosperity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/afd-leader-vows-restore-german-russian-ties-she-eyes-chancellery-2026-06-30/

[u/altiuscitiusfortius → u/Ok_Midnight4809]

Russia has been faking an attack from one country, then invading it, for decades. It's goal is to take over everything up to the eu. And then the eu. And then the world.

People explained this with Georgia, thrn Ukraine, and now Poland.

[u/galt035 → u/Current-Function-729]

NATO deep strikes on all Europe facing military facilities? Deep strikes on all logistics and staging centers.

And that would be like day 1-5

Russia has so much to lose here..

[u/escapefromelba → u/galt035]

History generally hasn’t been kind to countries that decide to fight a two-front war.

[u/SomeGalNamedAshley → u/escapefromelba]

If you're going to do it then at least have an ocean between each front and a huge navy.

[u/bmorris0042 → u/SomeGalNamedAshley]

And 4 years of mostly peace to build up in preparation of the fight too.

[u/WhitePackaging → u/ScaredPractice4967]

Polands current Army would dunk Russia. Im sure Poland would LOVE to take a swing at Russia to put them in their spot.

[u/evemeatay → u/WhitePackaging]

Polands soccer team could probably dunk Russia right now if they tried to attack while still fighting Ukraine

[u/vardarac → u/WhitePackaging]

Still relevant.

[u/Miserable_Ad7246]

That is one way of losing all your fleet and Kaliningrad.

[u/lasooch → u/Miserable_Ad7246]

As a Pole, we had a meme at one point that Królewiec should become Czech, for some reason.

[u/Impossible-Ground-98 → u/lasooch]

For sea access for our friends!

[u/olbins → u/Impossible-Ground-98]

Ahoy

[u/ITuser999 → u/olbins]

Still so funny to me that the Czech greet each other like that.

[u/bajaja → u/ITuser999]

for us it is funny when English speakers ask How are you. because it is obvious that I am always down, my health sucks, wife wants things from me, my employer went mad... let's not mention the weather... why ask?

[u/movealongnowpeople → u/bajaja]

The answer is always "good" or "doing well" regardless of whether you're good or well lol.

[u/hitbythebus → u/movealongnowpeople]

Or if you’re doing really really poorly, “fine”

[u/lemonsupreme7 → u/hitbythebus]

I like to say "not too bad" cause it's pretty bad

[u/ryocoon → u/lemonsupreme7]

The proper low end response would be "Could be worse" or "I'm not dead yet". That generally gets it across while still remaining 'polite' exchange.

Could always answer honestly, "Shit sucks, but I'm still breathing."

[u/did_i_or_didnt_i → u/lemonsupreme7]

I say ‘good enough’ because it catches people off guard, and they can’t decide if you’re being optimistic or pessimistic

[u/friedmators → u/lemonsupreme7]

Big fan of “The horrors persist, but so do I.”

[u/dracoomega → u/movealongnowpeople]

I just say "I'm here", which is a perfectly neutral answer meant to convey that I am perched on the edge of a yawning abyss and thinking about taking a swan dive

[u/Antilles1138 → u/Impossible-Ground-98]

Then soon after they can win their second naval battle against Russia.

[u/5wmotor → u/lasooch]

Czechia held a internet referendum after the russian invasion of Ukraine and decided that Königsberg now belongs to them.

I’m looking for the planned beer pipeline!

[u/UnidentifiedBlobject → u/5wmotor]

It’s about time Czechia got a Navy.

[u/Banxomadic → u/lasooch]

For the Trans-Polish Pilsner Stream. Czechs get access to the Baltic Sea, Poles get easy access to Czech beer.

[u/It_Is1-24PM → u/Banxomadic]

For the Trans-Polish Pilsner Stream.

And don't forget about Kofola Stream!

[u/squirrelbeanie → u/[deleted]]

Aren’t they like… dying there already? I’m not a General or or anything, but I always thought fighting a war on two fronts was a bad idea.

[u/that_one_duderino → u/squirrelbeanie]

I’m not a general or master tactician or anything, but ask the Nazis how great a two front war is. Spoiler, it’s not

[u/Intrepid00 → u/[deleted]]

If they do it, it’s not because they are stupid. Well maybe not. It could be they literally do want NATO involved so they can say they lost to NATO instead of a bunch of “backwards farmers” kicking their ass.

[u/MacaronNo5646 → u/Miserable_Ad7246]

What an odd way to spell 'Königsberg'.

[u/LakyousSama → u/MacaronNo5646]

Even weirder way to spell Królewiec

[u/cohana1215 → u/LakyousSama]

Why are yall spelling Zgornji Duplek like that?

[u/bk-12 → u/Miserable_Ad7246]

That’s what I was thinking. Great opportunity for Poland to grab Kaliningrad.

[u/harrisarah → u/bk-12]

Nobody wants Kaliningrad, it's full of Russians.

[u/Euclid_Interloper → u/harrisarah]

No need to grab it to be honest. It's not that big, just flatten all military and industrial buildings with artillery and create an absolute disaster for the Russians to clean up.

It's much more valuable as a target than a prize.

[u/Chilkoot → u/Euclid_Interloper]

It's also dangerous to leave in Russian hands, so better to just yoink if the opportunity arises.

[u/Working-Glass6136 → u/Chilkoot]

Yup. Turn it into a nature reserve, with a side of beachfront tourism to escape the heat.

[u/Derikari → u/bk-12]

I wouldn't wish that on Poland

[u/Rincetron1 → u/Derikari]

Thank you!

As a Finn, I'm kind of tired of faraway redditors propelling popcorn to their mouths who "reckon you could take 'em".

EDIT: 100% of us would be there, but nobody wants war.

[u/Norglet → u/Rincetron1]

That's exactly my thinking as a German reservist. Of course I'll be there. But I don't want to, if possible. Even disregarding the inevitable dead in our side, I like my comfortable bed, I like being with my family, so I don't want to be in some mud pit on the front lines, if not absolutely necessary.

[u/Xhosant → u/Norglet]

The only winning move is not to play, but boy, is there a depth of losing moves to be had

[u/WasThatInappropriate → u/Norglet]

UK reservist here. I have the same sentiments as you, I really don't want to have to do it, but I absolutely fucking will if its needed, and it'd be an honour to do it next to our European family.

I have wondered from time to time, that sooner or later one generation is just gonna have to do it. Russia seems like it can't change. We've tried being friends, we've tried to include them in everything, to integrate them socially and economically and culturally, but they always just betray us. It's just like they're so scared and paranoid that they will never feel safe and always feel the need to be the aggressor.

Charles, Napoleon and Hitler are long gone. We're not in the invading business anymore. I wish they could see that.

[u/ours → u/WasThatInappropriate]

This is what an army should be: eager for peace but ready to fight for it when necessary.

[u/alba_Phenom → u/WasThatInappropriate]

They still romanticise WW2 and refer to modern Germans as "the Fascists" with a whole mythos built around "winning WW2 against the Fascists"... it's so ingrained in who they are.

[u/ChronoLegion2 → u/alba_Phenom]

Putin is deliberately pushing that sort of narrative to rally the populace behind him as a “Stalin-esque” leader who “does what is necessary.”

He switched to “military patriotism” with an emphasis on WWII after his economic growth stalled

[u/Exterminator-8008135 → u/ChronoLegion2]

When you know Stalin purged any competent military lead, costing him the winter war in 1940 against a nordic country despite bringing a huge sum of soldiers and material.

That's where the White Death himself made himself known.

[u/This_is_me2024 → u/WasThatInappropriate]

As a Canadian reservist my country and my family the last two times we were called upon have done our part. But fuck me there's a whole ocean between us and I really don't wanna.

[u/WasThatInappropriate → u/This_is_me2024]

Ironically, Canada is closer to Russia than most of Western Europe is

[u/Plenty_Ambassador424 → u/Rincetron1]

Literally noone wants a war with russia. But the problem is that doesnt matter if russia wants a war with us. But if russia is foolish enough to do so, they´d be in for a harsh awakening, they´d notice that air power still reigns supreme and drones arent the end all be all.

[u/pixelwhip → u/Plenty_Ambassador424]

But drones & nato air power combined.. oh boy they are in for a rude awakening.

[u/Omateido → u/pixelwhip]

NATO air power to flatten anti air defenses and cheap drones to mop up what’s left would be a rough combo.

[u/schwanzweissfoto → u/Omateido]

And that's why Ukraine will eventually be a member of NATO. They are masters of drone combat and production.

[u/DesecratedPeanut → u/schwanzweissfoto]

If Russia invades Poland I expect Ukraine to be a signed Nato member same day. All bets are off at that point.

[u/Love_Science_Pasta → u/Rincetron1]

Wait till you get the 'You were invaded but there are two sides and you choose to fight" posts.

[u/gartenzweagxl → u/Love_Science_Pasta]

nahh, it will be more:

see, you provoked them so much, russia literally had no other choice

[u/Consistent-Ad1803 → u/gartenzweagxl]

just like a psycho stalker would say.

[u/Aptosauras → u/bk-12]

>>opportunity for Poland to grab Kaliningrad.

But it's full of Russians, so no thanks.

[u/normantas → u/bk-12]

Nobody wants that anymore besides Russia.

[u/crom3ll → u/bk-12]

Who the fuck would want that dump?

[u/SystemCheck990 → u/bk-12]

Kallingrad is so run down, that it would be a net drain .

[u/InternetSolid4166 → u/SystemCheck990]

It's a critical access point for Russia and the Baltic Sea. Without it, their sea projection and shipping is crippled. It would be a far bigger blow to Russia than any action taken so far. Poland hasn't yet done it because it would be a clear act of war, but if Russia starts it, NATO would back up Poland in shutting down the route.

[u/SystemCheck990 → u/InternetSolid4166]

agree, is also a staging point for missiles pointed at central Europe

[u/Executioneer → u/Miserable_Ad7246]

Kaliningrad is full of warheads and missiles to deliver them. They cant lose it.

[u/themikegman → u/Miserable_Ad7246]

Losing*

[u/domkuma]

Why does everybody love to touch Poland inappropriately? No means no god damn it

[u/pyeeater → u/domkuma]

Poland should not be wearing that dress if it doesn't want to be touched.

Flaunting itself infront of Russia like a brazen hussy.

[u/Tresialwe → u/pyeeater]

Send in the Winged Hussars

[u/zaevilbunny38 → u/Tresialwe]

Funny enough they will. The Polish version of the F-35 is called the Winged Hussars.

[u/clrksml → u/zaevilbunny38]

The Polish version of the F-35 is called the Winged Hussars.

https://www.f35.com/f35/news-and-features/Winged-Warriors-Polands-First-F-35-Unveiled.html

With drip like that I can't argue. Looking like a Dynasty Warrior character.

[u/gastroph → u/clrksml]

I don't know what I was expecting, but holy shit that's badass.

[u/Frydendahl → u/pyeeater]

Difference is, now Poland knows Krav Maga and carries a taser, bear spray, and a snub nose revolver in her purse.

[u/criticalpwnage → u/pyeeater]

I can’t believe you slut shamed a country

[u/TheMechanicusBob → u/domkuma]

I can't remember who said it but I once read somewhere on the internet "It must have been God's idea of a joke to put a piece of flat, fertile, resource rich land in the middle of Russia and Germany"

[u/lkjsdfllas → u/domkuma]

Poland is cursed. Everyone who invades it gets at least a decade of super bad luck afterwards:

• 1000s - German nobles attack Poland, get butt fucked, and then blacklisted by the Emperor
• 1200s - Mongols attack Poland, their leader suddenly dies of some unknown disease, major political clusterfuck ensues
• 1400s - Teutonic Order attacks Poland, gets ass raped, loses all its elite and most of its riches in a series of unfortunate events.
• 1600-1700 - Russians, Turks, Swedes and Tatars invade Poland on different years - bite more than they can chew and collapse politically soon after.
• 1800 - Austro-Hungary, Prussia and Imperial Russia attack Poland. By 1910 none of those states exist and their elites are dead or replaced.
• 1910s - Soviets attack Poland, loose against all common sense in an improbable stroke of bad luck.
• 1939 - Nazis attack Poland. Few years later Hitler is a burned corpse in a ditch, Berlin is a graveyard and 99% of nazis ate a bullet.
• 1939 - Soviets attack Poland again. Few years later the guy who argued for the invasion gets an icepick to the head, all the other generals are purged, and Stalin croaks soon after. Soviet Union lasts only 40 more years despite being a giant empire.

Guys, please, leave Poland alone. Fucking with Poles is like poking a honeybadger with a stick - you probably CAN kick its ass, but is it even worth it to take the risk? There is nothing of interest here, no oil, no gold, not much resources, the weather is shit, the population is made 100% of mean xenophobic berserkers, and nobody who conquered it lived to tell the tale.

[u/Vinyl-addict → u/[deleted]]

They’re annoyingly allergic to lead when you least need them to be.

[u/xenya → u/[deleted]]

Too many influential nazis today.

[u/emeraude89 → u/lkjsdfllas]

1800 - Austro-Hungary, Prussia and Imperial Russia attack Poland. By 1910 none of those states exist and their elites are dead or replaced.

this one is a little odd, as the kingdom of prussia still existed in 1910. would be better to say, prussia partitions poland, a decade later france occupies berlin and destroys the holy roman empire.

[u/EirunaKonaka → u/lkjsdfllas]

Prussia did not cease to exist, nor her elites were dead nor replaced by 1910. Quite the opposite, at that time it was at its peak – the nucleus of the German empire, with its king being the Kaiser.

[u/LatvianCake → u/lkjsdfllas]

Most consequences are “at some point something bad happens”. Any historic event will be followed by something bad at some point.

Like pick literally any major event and we can come up with a “and that led to major problems down the line”

[u/Kenos300 → u/LatvianCake]

"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move"

[u/sleeperninja → u/Kenos300]

I appreciate you, Hitchhiker fan.

[u/MajorTomFr → u/lkjsdfllas]

In 1910 soviets didn’t exist did they?

[u/ElizBorneopentowork → u/domkuma]

I mean if there is one country that, attacked, wpuld trigger all of Europe to answer, it is Poland. The pro putin far righta accross europe can argue about the baltics, but wvwn them know Varsow is way closer and their narrative would not fly (sadly, I can see aome people bending should Russia try to attack the baltic states).

[u/sagiroth → u/ElizBorneopentowork]

We have such a beef with russia its not even funny. Like the rage people contain against them boost morale and hatred so much that i dont think the russian troops are ready for it

[u/gfnord]

This sounds more like a "don't give/sell weapons to Ukraine, keep it for yourselves, you might need it" kind of play.

[u/Projectstfu → u/gfnord]

I am not sure, but US intelligence gave a warning that Russia was about to invade Ukraine and everyone laughed it off because the whole idea was insane and they said the US's intelligence was wrong and they would just go to the border and do a show of force and then leave.

So I wouldn't completely write off them doing this.

[u/Valmoer → u/Projectstfu]

because the whole idea was insane

To be fair to them, it was, and still is.

We just overstimated Putin's rationality, is all.

[u/Copatus → u/Valmoer]

I feel most arguments on this site are as if everyone in the world always follows the most logical choices in any situation.

Meanwhile that's almost never true.

[u/gregorydgraham → u/Copatus]

You can tear the rational actor from every economist’s cold dead hands.

[u/New_Poet_338 → u/Valmoer]

Until 2022 everybody said Putin was playing chess while everybody else was playing checkers. Turned out he was actually playing Russian Roulette while everybody was playing actual Roulette.

[u/amcclurk21 → u/Projectstfu]

I remember being among the population that was worried. I bought into the idea that Russia had a stronger military than they did in reality. But after four years of direct and sustained conflict with Ukraine, they’ve really shown their bare ass to the entire world. I don’t get their reasoning here, if it is real intelligence

[u/DumpedToast → u/amcclurk21]

They might not be as powerful as we thought but you don’t need much to cause harm. Real people will die if Russia attacks, no matter how weak they are

[u/Artistic_Concern_33 → u/DumpedToast]

You literally see what Iran is doing, you don’t need to be powerful, 3 drones a day in different EU country is more than enough

[u/SirTroglodyte → u/gfnord]

This. They are playing this same script over and over again for the past 3 years, with ever increasing intensity, because EU still did not bit the lure.

I would even go as far as Putin actually sending over a small force into EU straight to their deaths (a few thousand additional losses won't matter now anyway) just to sell it better.

[u/FinibusBonorum → u/SirTroglodyte]

One step into a NATO country is enough to start full response.

[u/EEVVEERRYYOONNEE → u/FinibusBonorum]

Maybe he expects them to invade Austria or Ireland. /s

[u/GallorKaal → u/EEVVEERRYYOONNEE]

We've already been invaded given how many idiots vote for the russian bootlicker party

[u/Safe-Industry2465 → u/GallorKaal]

I am austrian and it is bat shit crazy

I dont vote FPÖ and tbh I might understand why people vote for them regarding other talking points, but this russian-friendly course makes them unvotable for me

F imperial russia

[u/Excellent_Ad_2486 → u/FinibusBonorum]

Ehhh... PL has been getting drones for 2 years and not one single response yet sadly.. We keep getting attacked but somehow some way leaders keep saying "must've been a mistake! They wouldn't dare!... next time...!!" like bro, just accept RU is a MF'er and needs a slap.

[u/blastedin → u/gfnord]

Idk man. When some intelligence started predicting full on attack on Ukraine everyone said it was insane (and it was, but Russia is not a Rational Actor). 

[u/Emotional-Age-7618]

Yes good luck with that I mean the 3 day war is going excellent isn’t it

[u/Dofolo]

Russia's way out? Attack Poland, get bitchslapped a bit and then sue for peace and claim they were defending vs NATO to write off a million + losses but land gains in Ukraine?

[u/squishabelle → u/Dofolo]

with nato involved what grounds does russia have to keep the land? To deter future aggression it must not be profitable in any way to start wars

[u/Wayss37 → u/[deleted]]

They've been peddling "We are at war with NATO" propaganda for 4 years, and they are actively bombarded every day, there's no need to attack Poland in order to pull off that excuse

[u/pleasedontPM → u/Wayss37]

The goal here could be to have some retaliation coming from Poland, and to pull all personnel from most of Ukraine to "defend the homeland" up north.

Ukraine does not want to cede land, and Russia does not want to withdraw from occupied territories. By creating a need to move troops to the west of Russia, Putin get a reason to withdraw from Ukraine without acknowledging that he lost to Ukraine. It's more than just saying "we are at war with Nato", it is fleshing out this narrative with a few bombs across the border.

Putin would be betting on the fact that NATO would not obliterate Russia, the doctrine is to respond in proportion to the aggression, to avoid escalation.

[u/HappyAmbition706 → u/pleasedontPM]

There's also the (Russian) doctrine of escalate in order to de-escalate. This might be delicate between nuclear-armed States.

Although India and Pakistan have shown that it can be done.

Does Putin have the mentality to be able to not tip over rhat edge if he gets close? He has threatened Ukraine with it. Maybe China could pull him back from rhe brink.

[u/mnttu → u/Dofolo]

Putin has no way out except get NATO to attack him so he can then say "see, I told you NATO was a threat to us!"

[u/Heretic911 → u/mnttu]

You mean get NATO to fulfill the reason for its existence, that is to defend sovereign territory?

[u/giganticturnip → u/Dofolo]

Yes, I think this it Putin's off ramp.

[u/Banjo_Pobblebonk → u/giganticturnip]

I'm starting to think he's high on his own supply and genuinely believes Russia would win. His public statements about the war in Ukraine list some weirdly specific details that don't line up with reality - Russia completely occupying cities they're nowhere near for example.

[u/1Shamrock → u/Banjo_Pobblebonk]

I don’t know what to believe but that could be taken in 2 different ways.
1. He’s trying to make the situation look better than it is to his own people.
2. He’s preparing his get out of jail free card for if he decides to stop the war. He could turn around then, refer to his speech’s and say that people were lying to him about how well the war was going. And as soon as he found out how corrupt they were and how bad things were going, they received punishment and he stopped the war until such time as he can sort out the mess at home.

[u/Consistent-Ad1803 → u/1Shamrock]

ah the good old "evil boyars deceived the blameless tsar" strategy. He's really reaching for the classics now!

[u/Deadmemeusername → u/Consistent-Ad1803]

I was watching NFKRZ’s new video a couple hours ago and he was talking about some of the Russian “Z-fluencers” who are starting to criticize the war because of the fuel shortages/airstrikes on Moscow and that’s basically their mindset. “If President Putin knew what was happening, he’d put a stop to it right now!!” or something like that. It’s hard to know if it’s just some kind of cover to try to avoid retaliation or if they’re genuinely suffering from that level of cognitive dissonance.

[u/RemarkableWish2508 → u/Deadmemeusername]

Actually... he's likely surrounded by yes men now, anyone who could tell him the truth might have fallen out of the 5th floor window of some 4 floor building.

[u/1Shamrock → u/Consistent-Ad1803]

I’m sure they just have a book of these things that was wrote 100s of years ago that they keep referring back to.

[u/FourDimensionalTaco → u/giganticturnip]

Ehh, I doubt Putin wants to be remembered for being bitchslapped by Poland. A younger Putin might have agreed to that tactic, but today's Putin is thinking about his legacy, and is obsessed with establishing Soviet Union 2.0.

[u/giganticturnip → u/FourDimensionalTaco]

It's, not Poland but NATO. And I think he can, and indeed may want to take that over being bitchslapped by Ukraine as a way to end his war.

[u/daniel_22sss → u/giganticturnip]

Just this month there was a big pressure from the russian public to end the war already (cause of gasoline issues). And Putin pretty much told them to fuck off, and started a hidden mobilization in certain areas of Russia.

You guys don't get it. He's not looking for an off-ramp. This delusional old moron legitimately thinks he's 5 minutes away from defeating Ukraine and invading Europe. Recently on a meeting he said that russian forces are "only a few kilometers away from surrounding ukranians' in a bunch of cities. Except one of the cities he named was a RUSSIAN city.

Putin gets only good news from his generals and he thinks just a few more pushes will give him ultimate victory. That's why he didn't agree to a Trump peace deal (which was already horrible for Ukraine cause it was giving Russia a third of their territory), because he honestly thought he can just take the whole Ukraine.

[u/AnisSeras → u/Dofolo]

Poland wouldn't settle for a quick peace in that scenario, and Russia might learn what the US and Trump is learning in Iran: when asking for a peace deal in a war you started the other side is not required to accept it just because you asked nicely.

[u/Rubricity]

Why would they attack Nato when can't taken over Ukraine? What kind of cold war thinking is this

[u/DragonWhsiperer → u/Rubricity]

Because Putin's Russia is framing NATO as an agressor. Stage a False Flag attack, a real attack, whatever, as long as NATO responds and attacks Russian forces. Then Russia is no longer in a Special Military Operation, but at actual war. That means several things:

• Mobilisation is easier. It's the motherland at risk and that sort rethoric.
• Easier to explain to Russians why they have it so bad (Nasty free westerners are doing this to us).
• Deflect attention from the struggles they now have, losing against a smaller country that is bombing them and they absolutely fail to get a hold of.
• Prolong Putin's grasp on power through even more tight control over media and communications.

[u/PrinsHamlet → u/DragonWhsiperer]

In a continuation of this thinking Putin might be realizing that he has to create an exit from Ukraine that can be sold as honorable and a win in Russia.

How to do that being the maximalist that he is by nature?

Create the conditions for a new Congress of Vienna.

A grand spectacle of US, Europe, China and Russia settling their disputes over Ukraine as equals. Not particularly something he'd like to include Europe in (or Ukraine!) but better than slowly losing grip of Crimea and growing internal divisions in Russia as Ukraine's long range capabilities expand.

And how to create those conditions? As you suggest, set the stage for a (greater and hot) European war by provocations and skirmishes while maintaining tight control under a (greater) war threat.

[u/jcw99 → u/PrinsHamlet]

And how to create those conditions? As you suggest, set the stage for a (greater and hot) European war by provocations and skirmishes while maintaining tight control under a (greater) war threat.

The problem with this is scale.

Yes in Ukraine the NATO play book of air superiority and manoeuvrer warfare doesn’t work. But that is because of the density of the Air defence and drone network. If you get a EU vs Russia "hot" war, Russia wont be able to maintain that.

On raw manpower terms just the EU NATO nations have a standing army of 1.2 Million. About the same size of what Russia has right now and they are struggling against the 600k of Ukraine.

The frontline length would double or triple depending on how things go. (Edit to clarify, the new combined frontline would be double or triple the current frontline in Ukraine)

As it stands, Russia doesn’t have enough AD to cover its front line and the hinterlands (see the regular explosive remodelling of their oil infrastructure) and we can see the impact a slow trickle of Storm shadows is having. Now imagine what would happen when the UK and France open up their personal stockpiles while being mixed in with the 600+ Taurus Germany has ready and explicitly held onto for such a scenario.

The AD network would collapse, there would be nowhere near the artillery or drone concentration to stop 1000+ polish Leopard 2s, K2 Panthers and Abrams from doing their best thunder run impression and taking Kaliningrad for breakfast before debating if they want St Petersburg or Smolensk for lunch.

And that is the more "controlled" scenario where Agent Orange in the white house keeps the US out of things. Short of Nuclear sabre rattling there is nothing Russia could to to threaten further escalation

[u/TelluricThread0 → u/DragonWhsiperer]

But how do they plan on handling a major war with NATO economically? They're already not doing well at all in that regard. They have to defend against hundreds of Ukrainian drones almost every day it seems and their energy infrastructure has already taken numerous blows. The best time to start a war isn't after years of fighting another one that is already going poorly.

[u/Halbaras → u/TelluricThread0]

The biggest flaw with the idea is that they'd get to keep selling oil and exporting as normal.

They start a war with NATO and they would completely lose access to the Mediterranean and Baltic. Their ships in the Pacific and the Arctic and all their pipeline infrastructure become fair game. They wouldn't get to just sit back and attack internet cables and carry out cyber attacks, they'd be hit too.

Things they've taken for granted like their base in Syria and Kalingrad also become targets for permanent seizure.

[u/ssfgrgawer → u/Halbaras]

Yeah. The minute NATO and Russia aare at war, their western Ports cease to exist, their eastern ports become American targets (unless dumpy trumpy stays out of the war) and they lose their fleet entirely.

China and india would be forced to stop supplying Russia and the Russians ability to do heavy bombardments completely disintegrates without missiles from the Indian ocean countries and Pacific ocean countries, leading to being even less effective than they are already being.

Ukraine has become Putins Stalingrad, and this isn't the great patriotic war. It's a failed military invasion that has bogged down to WW1 levels of insanity and a longer war makes Russia look weak. They went from being one of the worlds most formidable armies to having moscow industries bombed for the first time since 1942.

The longer it drags on, the worse it looks for Russia and eventually one of Putins staff will "overthrow his evil regime and take his place as new leader"

[u/Big_Concern7238 → u/TelluricThread0]

Why would they care? As long as the oligarchs can keep hoarding wealth, it doesn't matter if the people suffer. And they will happily blame NATO for that.

[u/East_Lettuce7143 → u/DragonWhsiperer]

Why not just lie about it and do whatever you want anyway? I don't see why risk attacking NATO would help.

[u/mapdumbo → u/Rubricity]

Most questions can be answered by the articles under the headlines that spawn them 😛

In a worst-case scenario for Nato, Russia’s aim would be to undermine Polish sovereignty, expose Nato as a paper tiger, and force the withdrawal of Western support for Ukraine – all without triggering a conventional war with the alliance.

Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.

A scenario in which the Russians would withdraw from Poland as a result of those negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, would be seen as a win from Moscow’s perspective.  An end to Western support for Ukraine could even be a central Russian demand of such talks in return for withdrawal from Poland.

While Poland remains a staunch security ally of Ukraine, relations have become strained in recent months because of differing views on Second World War-era history and the two countries’ competing farming industries. It is feared Moscow may seek to widen that rift.

[u/Impossible-Ground-98]

mom I'm tired

[u/Ilmeury83]

It's not that Poland would even really need NATO's help to just finish Russia fighting alongside Ukraine, at this point in history...

And if they think Poland would ask and wait for US permission to hit back, then Trump and Putin are even more delusional than one would already think...

[u/Boring-Republic4943]

Curious to know what makes Russia think the US could stop Poland from responding as they wanted to? Saying this as an American, Poland doesn't seem like they would accept any attack on their territory without a reprisal.

[u/Medarco → u/Boring-Republic4943]

The general idea is that the rest of NATO would try to get Poland to negotiate rather than just dropping the gloves and jumping into the fight. That's because Russia has nukes, and while it feels morally right to invoke Article 5 and mobilize NATO, the nuclear deterrent is still a very important part of it.

Basically, Russia would be betting that the rest of NATO would say "Hey yeah we know this is fucked, but if we commit to full scale NATO military war, it will almost certainly end in nukes because Putin is a crackhead, and that's potentially world ending, so we should try to negotiate first."

Then they negotiate some kind of deal that pulls the Russians out of Ukraine and Poland, and Putin gets to spin it as another act of NATO aggression so he doesn't have to own the failure of his stupid invasion.

I agree that Poland would be very willing and able to kick the shit out of Russia, probably even without NATO involvement. But I think every western ally would be on Poland's ass about cooling down the war, rather than ending civilization as we know it.

The moral/stupid 'Murican in me wants us to finally actually do something to help our allies and crush Russia, though... But that's easy for me to say from Ohio, not on Russia's doorstep or in realistic striking distance of ballistic missiles/nukes.

[u/Divinicus2nd → u/Medarco]

The general idea is that the rest of NATO would try to get Poland to negotiate rather than just dropping the gloves and jumping into the fight. That's because Russia has nukes

That's the one thing americans do not understand.

If France, Germany, the UK, etc. do not react to an attack on Poland, or even worse try to convince Poland to not react, the consequences for them would be just as catastrophic as the use of nukes.

It would mean that 1. their words mean nothing, and 2. Russia can attack them as much as they want, they will never react even if it kills them.

[u/metropolic3 → u/Divinicus2nd]

Historically this has been the lesson Poland has learned.

It is a very distrustful nation, they've been left alone in catastrophic situations one too many times. That's also why they are not taking chances with Russia. First, it would be a way to take some (albeit late) revenge for all the historical defeats they have suffered at the hands of russian imperialism, and second, they are preparing to do it alone, just in case their supposed allies leave them hanging again.

[u/McG0788]

This ain't gonna happen. The Baltics maybe but Poland would truly be the nail in the coffin for Putin. They're one of the few that took shit seriously from the start of the war preparing themselves. They're ready for anything Putin tries.

[u/mdanne]

I am pretty sure it would have the exact opposite result and strengthen Europe's aid and resolve. But i am just a Dane, so what do iknow 🤷‍♂️

[u/Stennan → u/mdanne]

As a Swede I agree, Russia doing bad shit only makes me want to support Ukraine harder. BTW danskjävel, happy to work with you; you financing and us building 200 CV90 IFV for Ukraine by 2030. It would be even funnier if we did it again♥️

[u/Boatster_McBoat]

What could possibly go wrong?

[u/Toruviel_]

Funfact from a Pole, If Russia won't attack us by 2030-35 and we will finish our Narew & Wisła anti-air and rocket systems we will be able to aprox. fire around 24.000 in 1 sec on one artillery salvo.
And we just signed a contract with Sweden few days ago for 3 additional submarines lol.

War in Ukraine started on Thursday. On Monday Polish tanks were already on their way to Ukraine. We gave around 40% of our mobilization reserve to Ukraine and few hundred Tanks. Titles like this and news are just Russian play to undermine Polish mil support for Ukraine and deep the riff.

[u/Foxtrot_Uniform_CK69]

If Poland is attacked NATO should strike back and take St Peterburg

[u/ariglgn]

Assuming US intelligence also correctly predicted the Russian invasion on Ukraine before it stated I think we should really be getting concerned. Everyone here is clowning on Russia underestimating them but a wild animal is at it’s most dangerous yet when it’s cornered and getting desperate.

[u/Financial-Creme → u/ariglgn]

It's not cornered. There's a very wide open escape route, they just don't like that it involves withdrawing from Ukraine.

[u/TheTelegraph]

From The Telegraph:

Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, the United States has warned.

Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones or Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory.

Washington has issued several warnings to Warsaw about the plot, sources close to Karol Nawrocki, the Polish president, told Onet, the Polish news outlet, which, along with The Telegraph, is owned by Axel Springer and is part of its Global Reporters Network.

The goal of the Russian provocation would be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. It could be launched in a matter of months.

Polish security sources have also not ruled out a more conventional attack, such as a small ground incursion of Russian soldiers across Nato’s eastern flank.

According to Onet’s security sources, provocation scenarios could include a drone attack on critical infrastructure, such as power stations, or simulated air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.

One Polish intelligence source said that in the most extreme scenario, a “hybrid attack in the border region” could occur.

The same source said an armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers was conceivable.

This could be presented by Russia as an accidental straying into Polish territory because of a GPS failure, or as a dubious rescue mission to retrieve a helicopter suffering from a malfunction.

Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.

A scenario in which the Russians would withdraw from Poland as a result of those negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, would be seen as a win from Moscow’s perspective.

An end to Western support for Ukraine could even be a central Russian demand of such talks in return for withdrawal from Poland.

More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/

[u/el0j → u/TheTelegraph]

"Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate" ... like wat? What are you talking about?!

This just makes no sense at all.

Not saying "Super-Genius" Putin isn't stupid enough to try something, but just like his "genious" has miscalculated everything else, the expected outcome isn't going to be the one presented here.

[u/Every-Development398 → u/TheTelegraph]

Anyway then i started blasting - poland most likely.

[u/Dumbone22]

If that happens, then nothing should stop Poland from taking over Kaliningrad

[u/mcmasterstb → u/Dumbone22]

Kaliningrad is a poisoned apple, taking over and not doing some Geneva worthy deportations of the Russian population will only mean more problems in the future for any country that would take that land.

[u/Fluffy-Pop-3407]

Russia is buckling and the entire infrastructure of the country is about to collapse because of a lack of fuel... but somehow they are going to open a second front with a superior opponent?

Are you sure about that?

[u/Built4dominance]

If they go through with it, isn't it a declaration of war on NATO?

[u/Combei → u/Built4dominance]

Yes. They can't just attack a NATO member and yell "just a prank bro"

[u/obas]

Let's see how that will work out for them.. If NATO doesn't respond, then fuck this world and Ukraine fought for nothing

[u/Lazy-Plankton5270 → u/obas]

If NATO does respond it could severely backfire for Russia and they won't be worrying about the war in Ukraine anymore

[u/rackfloor → u/Lazy-Plankton5270]

could backfire? It'd be the equivalent of death by cop.

[u/Bluebearder → u/rackfloor]

Indeed, this would be absolute suicide. And of course we will respond. Nobody wants a war, but Poland is a member of NATO and the EU, and that is all there is to it. When Putin attacks Poland and the response starts, Putin might well be assassinated because suddenly all Russian generals can imagine spending the rest of their lives in a prison in The Hague.

[u/TekkenPerverb → u/Lazy-Plankton5270]

That is Putin's plan: he can't lose to Ukraine but losing to Big Bad NATO is a different thing.

[u/akie → u/TekkenPerverb]

I hate how logical that is.

[u/Commercial_Badger_37 → u/obas]

"fought for nothing" - what about the survival of their own state and people?

Strange take.

[u/Kaisah16]

Poland would kick their ass.

This isn’t 1940 anymore

[u/PurpleReign123]

Trump: “Vlad, don’t!”

There! He stopped another war, the 69th one this year. He’s a shoo-in for the Nobel Peace Prize this year.

[u/naheCZ]

I am reading this every 3 months.

[u/orkbrother]

This is what happens when lunatics are in power. Trump and Putin are the worst type of people to have power. These kinds of people should be locked in a hole somewhere

[u/pxer80]

Poland should preemptively attack Russia to prevent this.