r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 22h ago
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis for AMD 9/1-----Pre-Market
10 Yr and NVDA--------thats this whole market. Maybe a little oil too. But ooooooof the 10 yr is screaming red. NVDA is spending more cash today to help its customers secure compute. I really don't know how much longer this can be a viable strategy honestly. Like $35 Bil for one deal for one customer. Its like the chip companies are the things keeping the AI companies afloat. Shouldn't the broader market be able to do that on its own bc they have been able to monetize the tech?
I generally don't love Chamath Palihapitiya but I did see him talk about AI compute like a commodity and I thought it was great. Right now Anthropic is one of the most EXPENSIVE barrels of compute out there. And I love Claude I really do. But I'm not sure that is going to be the thing that is lasting. So making investments in them is ehhhhh kinda iffy. I think AMD has been a little bit more judicial with some of its investments which I think is solid. Investing in a company like Meta that has alternative revenue streams might allow Zuck and co to just outlast the competition and buy the remnants later on.
AMD is still hanging around but with the 10 yr spike I think we might see some weakness forming up at the open. $450 is the key level to watch today. As long as we can hold that we aren't completely fucked but if we break below that then that is where we start the $424/$425ish watch for support. I kinda just want it to happen already and shake out the bears so we can be prepped for Helios launch.
What do we think of new APPL CEO???? Do you think he opens the door to more partnerships?
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u/Coyote_Tex 20h ago
All of the AI businesses are in the BIG investment phase of their 5 year plans. It doesn't matter what busines you are in or start, you always have a higher investment lower cash flow issue to get them started. People Like Jensen and Collette know this full well and are investing in the future of these too big to fail companies by the way, and perhaps getting some warrants in addition to sales orders. This shows us their confidence in the AI strategy and vision of the future. Jensen is pretty astute with his only real miss being a brief underestimation on Quantum computing which he quickly addressed. All the signals are there for this to work out splendidly. It is healthy to question and understand things, but just be sure you have some skin in the game and not miss the single biggest technological revolution of the last 100 years. Sure not every hurdle is 100% clear ahead, but there is a path in place that is viable.
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u/lvgolden 18h ago
Imagine if all these companies succeed. NVDA will own pieces of OpenAI, Anthropic, MediaTek, CoreWeave, INTC, and who else am I forgetting? Marvell? Plus stakes in data centers. If you think these companies are all at the beginning of their valuation journeys, then NVDA is going to profit hugely.
I understand if someone thinks that those companies won't all make it big. But that's the bet here.
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u/Coyote_Tex 15h ago
Yes, it is really a brilliant wealth multiplier just like a huge venture capital operation. They have numerous companies that are not household names as well. I think they are in position to have their winners outstrip their losers and the losers are likely to get bought up, not just die and blow away.
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u/Coyote_Tex 19h ago edited 14h ago
Post Open & Bike Ride 10:30 CT
The indices dropped solidly overnight as tensions rose with Iran or that was the reason given. I have been pointing to the very low VIX from last week as an indicator of a market shift which began somewhat late last week through yesterday which many called rotation. Then we get an overnight rug pull which so often occurs to trap investors for a drift lower for what might be several days. It is interesting that the VIX did not spike over 16 yet even though treasury yields rose to some new highs on the 10 year and oil spiked up as well. It would have been highly reasonable to see us at 16.50 this morning given the magnitude of the move in the indices and other items noted.
AMD dropped farily hard this morning below 460 and fading. All the MA's on the daily chart are now negative sloping and the low today is tagging the lower Bollinger Band, so we either bounce or push the lower band down further. The lower BB is at 451 and we got a gap down open today.
Thus far MU and NVDA have faired better than AMD with MU back to green and NVDA improving. I have more to catch up on this morning so will be back later.
Post Close
Well surprise, the SPY and especially the QQQ faded lower as the day progressed AND the VIX closed at 16.34. About what I anticipated from my first report this morning.
The QQQ closed down 1.27% to 707.64 below the 50DMA and on the lower Bollinger Band which may get pushed downward as a result. All MA's on the QQQ are down sloping so either we bounce here quickly or face a few days or more of potential bearish action. Since the QQQ is sitting on the 20 Week MA on the weekly charts the next support is potentially at the 693ish level which would give the QQQ a 3.26% total retracement if it goes that far, but I am guessing it will. We do get AVGO's earnings on 9/2 to perhaps help?
The SPY looks stronger than the QQQ and would need to drop below the lower Bollinger Band on the daily charts to hit the 50DMA. IT certainly can but is less likely than bouncing or moving sideways.
AMD ended about the same as my first report at 459.61 down 2.36%.
NVDA dropped a bit more to 217.44 down 1.51%. MU dropped further as well giving up 2.64% to 933.44.
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u/Totonadent 21h ago
Jw I'm wondering if the low volume is contributing to the range bound in august. Like there are big movements but within the range due to low volume, but in a way the low volume keeps the range kinda tight
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u/IndividualForward177 21h ago
JW I'm not sure which 35 Bil dealnyou are refering to but if it's the one with Anthropic then Nvidia is not forking out 35 Bil. They are paying around 9 Bil over 15 years to Hut 8 for land lease with power connection. Then subleasing and selling GPUs to Lambda which will run the data centre. They are increasingly trying to help their customers secure land and power and less subsidised or circular GPU deals although these still do happen. In the earnings call they said the demand is thera and they would sell more GPUs if customers had where to put them so they are taking care of that bottleneck.
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u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru 20h ago
Totally just read the headline not the terms. What happens if the land they help secure doesn’t get approval to be built? Is there a sunk cost if the DC don’t materialize?
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u/Coyote_Tex 15h ago
The Hut8 projects in Texas are undergoing a state audit, which became a "political" step, but the approvals are highly likely. This audit step is to further guarantee Hut8 compliance with the rules Texas has surfaced for DC's in the state. They were quite far along on that path before the audit bell rang.
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u/EditofReddit2 20h ago
We don’t have enough data yet to show that some companies will not gain revenue from AI, but will simply be able to keep competitors using AI from stealing existing revenue. It will be the same for countries as well, but on steroids. Alas, crystal ball is fuzzy still.
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u/lvgolden 21h ago
JW, my analogy is that I think NVDA has taken below-market-rate fixed rate mortgates with balloon payments due in a few years on all these companies. They are hoping these businessess grow so fast that they can outrun the day of reckoning (when the "balloon" is due). My sense is that is what Jensen and Colette are hinting at when they refer to the huge inflection point coming now and into 2027. They think all these businesses will be priting money in 1 or 2 years' time, and the backstop financing debt coverage will be trivial by then.
If it takes longer than a couple years, it will be trouble.