r/AtlantaHawks • u/Buteo_jamaicensis • 5h ago
Discussion The 2026-27 Atlanta Hawks and the Ramo Principle
In 1970, the legendary engineer Simon Ramo published an analysis of amateur tennis games in which he found that, in his words, 80% of points were lost rather than won. In other words, 80% of the time a player scored a point, it wasn't because they'd made some brilliant shot, but simply because their opponent had made some kind of mistake -- hitting the ball out of bounds, hitting it into the net, etc.
The lesson Ramo drew from this analysis was that if you want to succeed in amateur tennis, you don't actually have to be the kind of player who specializes in making spectacular, impossible plays; all you have to do is be the kind of player who is good enough at playing solid, fundamentally sound tennis that you can avoid making a mistake for longer than your opponent can.
As it turns out, this principle has proven true in all kinds of other fields as well. Poker players and chess players, for instance, talk about it all the time; as Kasparov once wrote of Smyslov:
His credo was as follows: “I will make 40 good moves and if you are able to do the same, the game will end in a draw.” But it was precisely this ‘doing the same’ that was the most difficult: Smyslov’s technique was ahead of his time.
And famed investor Charlie Munger has made similar observations about investing:
It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.
The truth is, as impressive as it can be to fill up a highlight reel with big home-run plays -- whether it's in tennis or chess or investing or any other activity -- it's generally a lot harder to play a game that, flashiness aside, is simply free of mistakes. Players and teams often want to measure their potential in terms of how much they can maximize their positive plays -- but more often, what ends up mattering the most is actually the extent to which they can minimize their negative plays. In the end, the competitors that end up winning the most are often not necessarily the ones who make the most big heroic plays, but simply the ones who avoid the most costly mistakes (while forcing their opponents to make more mistakes).
So how does this relate to the Hawks and their newly-retooled roster? Well, you can probably connect the dots here for yourself: One of the biggest themes of this past year's transactions, at least in my view, has been "addition by subtraction." It pains me to say it, but as much as we all loved watching Trae Young hit those 30-foot bombs and rack up those super-flashy assists, his game wasn't exactly what you might call the most mistake-free game in the world; his substandard defense and penchant for inefficient hero-ball are all well-known around here, so I won't harp on them. Likewise with guys like Risacher and Kuminga; as exciting as it always was to see them throw down a huge dunk or hit a big three, it was always just as frustrating to see them drive into the paint and, bless their hearts, immediately cough the ball up instead of passing it back out, time after time. These guys all brought a lot of positives to the table, no doubt -- but they also made a lot of mistakes, and in the end those mistakes ended up canceling out a lot of the positives.
With this new roster, though, the Hawks have opted to approach things from a different direction. Our new additions like Flemings and Ejiofor and Dort and Wiggins admittedly might not be as flashy as the previous guys, but they also aren't nearly as mistake-prone. If Flemings or Ejiofor make a pass, it's far more likely to be an assist than a turnover. If Dort or Wiggins can't get a good look, they're far more likely to keep the ball moving than to force up an inefficient shot in traffic. Similarly, the guys we've retained from last year -- JJ and NAW and DD and OO and CJ and the rest -- are almost always net positives in terms of IQ and discipline. They aren't constantly turning the ball over or getting themselves into foul trouble or piling up needless technicals. Despite certain weak points, this team as a whole is one that largely minimizes mistakes on the offensive end. And on the defensive end... oh man. This is a team designed to absolutely maximize opponents' mistakes. With as much aggression and physicality as we've added on defense, opponents are going to be turning the ball over constantly, forcing up late shot-clock prayers constantly, committing frustration fouls constantly. We probably won't be blowing anyone away with our ability to rise above our opponent's ceiling on any given night, but we will absolutely be capable of lowering their floor far below our own -- and that's how we'll win our games. Hawks games won't be a matter of "whoever has the best night wins" -- they'll be a matter of "whoever has the worst night loses." Winning the mistake differential -- that's what Hawks basketball is going to be all about this year. And I for one am looking forward to seeing how it shakes out. Wake me up when September ends (because, you know, that's when the preseason will be starting).
