So I genuinely wanted to try and predict the whole season episode by episode, obviously, spoilers for anyone who hasnt read Fire and Blood.
I just wanted make my best guess on how Season 4 will play out with 2 years to go, based on the episodes they have left, and keeping as close to both the books and the changes show has made as I could. Its less so me predicting what the twists of Alys story will be as an example, more about the structure of the season.
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Ep 1:
Aftermath of Tumbleton part 1.
People of Kingslanding not reacting well to the death of Best Bug Queen, Rhaenyra's "I will stop GOT season 8" speech, and her kinda sorta killing the pope.
Aegon and One Eyed Visenya start working on reuniting with Vhagar.
Rhaenyra finds out that Ulf and Hugh betrayed her so she wants to kill Addam for being the other bastard dragonrider, and Rhaena too since she believes she is responsible for Jaces death. Most likely Baela or Alyn will be the one to warn Addam in the show and Addam and Baela escape together.
Im guessing Matt Smith In A Wig, having left Oscar and Ally Blackwood outside of Tumbleton and returned to Kingslanding thinking "hey, maybe a big dragon war wasnt a good idea, my bad, oh shit my wife now thinks she is Dragon Jesus", rescues Rhaena too as the shows version of the "final rift" between them. But that can happen this episode or the start of the next.
Probably at least one short scene in Tumbleton telling us where Daeron is, Gwayne reacting to the aftermath, Ulf enjoying himself or Hugh not taking the death of his wife well. Everytime we see Tumbleton its just an absolute nightmare.
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Ep 2:
I am guessing that Mysaria will be the Shepherd if they do it at all, either way theres build up to the storming of the Dragon Pit and likely they'll have Mysaria have some part in making it happen.
One Eyed Visenya and Vhagar reunite, for whatever reason Aegon and One Eyed Visenya separate. Maybe they find out what happened at Tumbleton and their plan has to change, maybe something to do with Alys. Either way, Aegon starts travelling to Dragonstone, and One Eyed Visenya stays at Harrenhall with Vhagar.
Matt Smith In a Wig and Rhaena find Sheepstealer, and they give Rhaena Nettle's ending.
More short "checking in on Tumbleton scenes", Ulf trying to bring Hugh over to the dark side, Roxton is hanging out, Gwayne and Daeron reunite, its just absolute hell for the people of Tumbleton right now.
Corlys is imprisoned when he returns to Kingslanding to stand in Addams place.
Battle of the God's Eye could happen this episode or in ep3. Either way, Matt Smith In A Wig confronts One Eyed Visenya, something with Alys, they fight, they die in the lake. I cant imagine they wont have Matt Smith In a Wig jump from Caraxes and stab One Eyed Visenya in the one eye like in the book, the spectacle alone would be the coolest thing I've ever seen. But my heart will break seeing Red Noodle Boy drown.
However Alys's story ends, maybe the sacrifice of two dragons and two Targaryens into the Gods Eye is enough of a blood sacrifice to free her from her curse? I dont know, Alys is a bit of a wild card.
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Ep.3:
Storming of the Dragon Pit. Make it a full 20-30 sequence. People storm, dragons die, Joffery finds out why you dont try to ride someone else's dragon. If the Battle of the God's Eye didn't happen last episode, then I'm guessing it'll happen along side the storming, which would give more build to Matt Smith in a Wig and One Eyed Visenya's confrontation.
Before the storming, theres more scenes of presumably Mysaria getting the people wound up about dragons, because, oh yeah, she is supposed to a really clever Mistress of Whisperers who can cause a riot in Kingslanding.
More "checking in with Tumbleton" scenes with Ulf being the devil on Hughs shoulder, Gwayne and Daeron.
Rhaenyra has to flee Kingslanding. I want them to use the episode title "Rhaenyra Overthrown" at some point in s4, so it can be this episode or ep5 to avoid spoilers, which will be a good connection to s3ep3 "Rhaenyra Triumphant" and s2ep4 "The Red Dragon and the Gold".
Tyland is brought to Kingslanding early in the episode, he was found after Aegon and Sunfyre fucked off to Harrenhall, and Tyland is tortured to find out where the money at. Then, the storming happens and it takes up the rest of the episode.
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Ep4:
For whatever reason, Baela and Addam separate. Maybe Baela finds out Aegon is heading to Dragonstone, but Addam wants to prove he is the loyal bastard dragonrider so he needs to kill Hugh and Ulf. Either way, Baela heads to Dragonstone, Addam heads to Tumbleton.
"Checking in with Tumbleton" scenes. Hugh has fully embraced his darker brutal side after Kats death and Ulf encouraging him. Maybe if they want to be fun, they could have Hugh's vision of Bobby B thinking it is of himself inbetween hammering horse shoes to peoples heads. Daeron wants to stop them, convinces Roxton to join him, Gwayne realises and figures that the only way to save Daeron is by poisoning Ulf.
I know you guys love "checking in with Tumbeton" scenes. So you're in luck, for the next couple of eps we will have "checking in on Rhaenyra travelling" scenes where she... travels and grieves the fact that she was overthrown, "checking in on Aegon infiltrating Dragonstone" scenes where he... infiltrates and takes over Dragonstone, and "checking in on Kingslanding" scenes, were we will have a truncated version of the "Moon of Three Kings", focusing on likely Sylvi and Dyana raising up Gaemon Palehair, and/or Sylvi talking to Mysaria about how she feels about her causing the storming and Kingslanding falling into anarchy.
C'mon guys, we need to lose just a little bit of steam mid season after an exciting beginning. You gotta give the fans an episode to complain that "nothing happened" this season, tis a christmas tradition.
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Ep5:
"Checking in on Kingslanding" scenes. Maybe they find out that Boratheon has finally started marching north towards Kingslanding.
"Checking in with Rhaenyra travelling" scenes. Rhaenyra will speak about Cregan Stark has left from Winterfell with an army after hearing about the storming. At the end of this episode, Rhaenyra sells Vissy's crown to buy passage to Dragonstone. Maybe you could title this one "Rhaenyra Overthrown" instead in reference to her selling the crown, might be nicely poetic.
"Checking in on Aegon infiltrating Dragonstone" scenes. He continues to do just that. Maybe Larys is there to help. Baela arrives on Dragonstone.
"Checking in with Tumbleton" scenes. Battle of Tumbleton Part 2 happens as a dragon battle. Gwayne will give poisoned wine to Ulf and both will die, and Gwayne's death will break my heart, sacrificing himself to give Daeron better odds. Oscar and the Tully army has been hiding out in the woods outside of Tumbleton all season, Addam unites with them and starts his attack on Vermithor, while the Tully's attack Tumbleton again. Hugh attempts to reach Vermithor, where Roxton stops him with his iconic "my condolences Lord Hammer, you died in the battle" line, and kills him. Daeron flies out with Tessarion to help, Addam, Seasmoke, Daeron, Tessarion, Vermithor, they fight, they fall, they all die, and my heart breaks. I know the book says it probably didnt happen, but if they dont do Silverwing nudging dead Vermithor's wing trying to make him fly again I will riot. The last we see of Silverwing is her taking flight leaving her loved ones body behind.
Sorry guys, no more "checking in with Tumbleton" scenes, I know they were your favourite sitcom.
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Ep6:
"Checking in on Aegon infiltrating Dragonstone" scenes. Aegon launches his plan to take over Dragonstone, they do it, but oh no! Baela stands in his way. Aegon on Sunfyre fight Baela on Moondancer. My heart will be broken seeing Moondancer die, but Baela survives and escapes, not captured like in the book. Larys and his spies have captured Aegon (the baby one not the older burnt one) and brought him to Dragonstone, because, oh yeah, he's supposed to be a super clever Master of Whisperers who can find people like that.
"Checking in on Rhaenyra travelling" scenes. Rhaenyra on a boat, Rhaenyra on a boat, gotta buy time for the end of the episode, Rhaenyra on a boat.
Oh shit, Rhaenyra arrives on Dragonstone, wait, no Rhaenyra! Didn't you see the "checking in on Aegon infiltrating Dragonstone" scenes? Well Aegon infiltrated Dragonstone! Rhaenyra is captured, they have their cool final confrontation, if they don't have the dialogue ripped straight out of the book then I will riot again, and Emma and Tom will give the greatest performances I've ever seen doing it. Aegon has Sunfyre burn and eat Rhaenyra infront of Aegon (the baby one).
"Checking in on Kingslanding" scenes throughout, but I imagine a short scene of the Baratheon host marching into Kingslanding, raising the Greens banners over the Red Keep and restoring order at the end.
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Ep7:
We had a previous episode named "Rhaenyra Overthrown", so this penultimate episode should be called "The Short, Sad Reign of Aegon II". You might think its too long an episode title, but I dont care, I think its poignant.
This episode is a truncated version of the chapter of the same name.
Ageon gets back to Kingslanding, the Velaryon fleet stopping him isnt going to be a problem in the show like it is in the book.
Aegon is spiteful, in pain, tired, upset, just like Rhaenyra, winning the throne and revenge did not give him the satisfaction he thought it would.
Sunfyre dies of his wounds, and what is left of my heart breaks once again.
Aegon vows he will destroy every Black-aligned lord. Sending his three envoys.
Corlys is freed and allowed to serve on Aegon's small council. He convinces Aegon (the older burnt one) to make Aegon (the baby one) his heir instead of gelding him in a council meeting.
Now... a lot TG people will probably absolutely hate it if its included, and I know its a Mushroom story so should be taken with a *very* big pinch of salt. But the book states that because Aegons... penis kinda... exploded... the only way for him to gain any sexual gratification is through... cuckholdry (I'm not googling it to double check spelling), after which he would just cry. I kinda want them to include a short scene of that if theres time, not for the cuckholdry but for the crying afterwards. For me it was always the most humanising moment for Aegon in the book, and a real demonstration on what this war has costed for everyone, to a point where the king is a broken individual crying in a closet in the darkness.
Baela unites with Oscar Tully and Ally Blackwood with the rest of his army as they march on Kingslanding, we continue to hear that Cregan Stark's army is a few days behind them. The Baratheons are sent out to intercept them. The Muddy Mess happens, although since no show major characters are present, and this season has had alot of expensive dragon CGI battles already (I mean, theres basically a dragon battle every episode), I cant imagine they would dedicate much time or budget to it, so I imagine basically only see little bits of it or jump to the end like the battle against the Lannisters. This is also why Baela is here to add one more show character to it.
Tully's win, and march on Kingslanding, the Lannisters and the Hightowers have no one to send, the Baratheons army is scattered, the walls are closing in.
Aegon takes a nice mother/son ride with Alicent in that carrage thing they always use... Wait... No Aegon! Didn't you watch House of the Dragon Season 3 Episode 7 "The One Where Alicent Tries to Posion Her Son"?? Well Alicent tried to poison her son! Look out Aegon! He can't hear us he has his airpods in!
I think its really clear that they are setting up Alicent to poison Aegon. She attempted and failed to poison Aemond in s3, and practically speaking she doesnt really do anything for the rest of the show. Almost certainly she will go with Rhaenyra during their "checking in on Rhaenyra travelling" scenes and will see Rhaenyra's death. And Tom and Olivia will give the greatest performances I've ever seen doing it.
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Ep8:
Obviously titled "The Hour of the Wolf".
Baela, Oscar and Ally arrive at Kingslanding. The city surrenders and Corlys presents Aegon (the baby one) as the new King, and that he will be married to Jahaera when they are older, and they can create a regency to rule for them while they grow up.
Everyone in Kingslanding is having a rave that the dragon war is over, but then Cregan Stark arrives, dramatically opening the door to the throne room like Aragorn in the Two Towers.
Cregan quickly establishes himself has Hand of the King, vowing to destroy any Green-aligned house left.
Behind Cregans back, realising that hes gonna make the same mistake Aegon did, Corlys sends letters to the Lannisters, Hightowers, and Baratheons asking them to surrender and bend the knee to Aegon "The Baby One" Targaryen.
Corlys, to save Alicent, takes the blame for Aegon "The Burnt One" Targaryen's death, and he will be executed for it. Yes, I know he outlives the Dance in the book, but realistically not by much, and it doesnt change much, and the show isnt covering that anyway, and its my hyperthetical s4 anyway so write your own.
We get a short version of Cregan's trials, were Larys is executed, and a most of them choose to go to the Wall.
Then, Baela has been delaying Cregan's march to restart the war until finally the surrenders from the Lady's of Casterly Rock, Oldtown and Storms End arrive. Its so poetic to me that a war that was fought over how gender plays into succession, ends with the most number of women in high positions of power kinda accidently, it gives it kinda a bitter sweet feeling, so make this a whole big dramatic thing please Djawadi.
Finally we have a semi-montage epilogue sequence. Cregan stepping down as Hand. The new Regency council, with scarred Tyland as Hand, Jayne is there as one of the regents absolutely slaying with her neck having doubled since the last time we met. Alyn and Baela having Addam's tombstone say "Loyal". The Winter Wolves settling down in the Riverlands because they dont have to be used as a weapon of war anymore, creating a new life for themselves. Jahaera hatching Dawn to signify a new era (listen, its the best I could come up with since Rhaena has Nettle's ending, and I just want that cute little pink dragon hatched, plus Jahaera book dragon has never been mentioned in the show). No one talk about how Jahaera will Helaena-herself, the show ain't covering that. Alicent is sailing with Grey Worm to Naath, idk what they are gonna do with Alicent, shes too different now to give the same ending. Aegon is miserable after Rhaenyra's death, with Gaemon Palehair being his friend. And ending with the coronation of Aegon "the Baby One" Targaryen, third of his name, titles titles titles. All while Djawadi plays a masterpiece...
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Oh and Alyn has been standing in the corner of every shot this season looking stoic...
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Please tell me in the replies how wrong I am and how much you hate it.