Wall Street usually likes lower taxes, deregulation and business-friendly policy — and Republicans have historically leaned harder into that playbook.
Now prediction markets are putting a Democratic sweep at 51%.
If that keeps climbing, don’t be surprised if Wall Street starts paying a lot more attention to November.

Japan’s 10-year yield just broke 3% for the first time since 1996, and this matters for U.S. markets. Higher yields at home give Japanese investors less reason to own U.S. Treasuries, potentially putting even more upward pressure on U.S. yields. Add in the risk of a yen carry-trade unwind, and you’ve got another potential source of selling pressure for U.S. stocks. Japan’s bond problem can quickly become our problem.

IMPOSSIBLE ENVIRONMENT TO TRADE IN AS WE ARE USED AS THE ADMINISTRATIONS PAWNS / LIQUIDITY. TIME TO SHUT IT DOWN UNTIL 2030

Yields just won't stop.

You know it's bad when bond market is quite literally ignoring the US Treasury.

24 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now pushing into 4.80%, its highest since January 2025.

That's another +20 basis points since the low seen after the US Treasury's intervention announcement 13 days ago.

In a sudden turn of events, 7% mortgages are back, the 10Y Note Yield is nearing 5%, and markets are expecting a September rate hike.

This marks a +85 basis point run in the 10Y Note Yield since the Iran War began.

Once again, the US simply cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield at 5% for a sustained period of time.

We expect further attempts at intervention immediately.

But, the question becomes: will markets listen?

The S&P 500 just fell to its lowest level since August 4th as the Iran war heats back up. Brent crude is pushing above $92, fueling inflation fears, while the U.S. 10-year is around 4.79%. Higher oil + higher yields is a nasty combination for stocks and right now, the market is feeling it.

Trump just went all-in defending the data center boom as backlash continues to grow across the country.
His message is pretty simple: embrace the AI/data center buildout or watch the jobs, money and investment go somewhere else.
He even warned China “could not be happier” about the pushback.
The AI infrastructure fight is getting political now.

Trump just took the worst-case scenario off the table, saying nuclear weapons will not be used against Iran. After another weekend of U.S. strikes and retaliation fears, that’s a pretty major shift in tone. Now the big question: Is this the beginning of de-escalation, or just the calm before the next move?