Everyone got bearish, so I got bullish. Then everyone else got bullish because everyone was bearish, so naturally I turned bearish. Now everyone is bearish because everyone got bullish about everyone being bearish.

At this point I’m not trading stocks, I’m trading mental illness.

IMPOSSIBLE ENVIRONMENT TO TRADE IN AS WE ARE USED AS THE ADMINISTRATIONS PAWNS / LIQUIDITY. TIME TO SHUT IT DOWN UNTIL 2030

Wall Street usually likes lower taxes, deregulation and business-friendly policy — and Republicans have historically leaned harder into that playbook.
Now prediction markets are putting a Democratic sweep at 51%.
If that keeps climbing, don’t be surprised if Wall Street starts paying a lot more attention to November.

Chevron, $CVX, is finalizing a deal that will "significantly expand" its operations in Venezuela as part of a push by President Trump to begin pumping Venezuelan oil, per Bloomberg.

Details include:

1. Chevron is adding 2 giant oil fields in the Orinoco Belt to its operations

2. The company has negotiated operating rights to fields that hold "billions of barrels" of oil in Venezuela

3. The deal is expected to be the largest of several agreements announced in the coming days as Trump encourages more US investment in Venezuela’s oil industry

4. The deal is separate from negotiations for the US government to take a direct stake in oil fields

The US is set for a major push into Venezuelan oil.

The S&P 500 just fell to its lowest level since August 4th as the Iran war heats back up. Brent crude is pushing above $92, fueling inflation fears, while the U.S. 10-year is around 4.79%. Higher oil + higher yields is a nasty combination for stocks and right now, the market is feeling it.

Japan’s 10-year yield just broke 3% for the first time since 1996, and this matters for U.S. markets. Higher yields at home give Japanese investors less reason to own U.S. Treasuries, potentially putting even more upward pressure on U.S. yields. Add in the risk of a yen carry-trade unwind, and you’ve got another potential source of selling pressure for U.S. stocks. Japan’s bond problem can quickly become our problem.

Yields just won't stop.

You know it's bad when bond market is quite literally ignoring the US Treasury.

24 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now pushing into 4.80%, its highest since January 2025.

That's another +20 basis points since the low seen after the US Treasury's intervention announcement 13 days ago.

In a sudden turn of events, 7% mortgages are back, the 10Y Note Yield is nearing 5%, and markets are expecting a September rate hike.

This marks a +85 basis point run in the 10Y Note Yield since the Iran War began.

Once again, the US simply cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield at 5% for a sustained period of time.

We expect further attempts at intervention immediately.

But, the question becomes: will markets listen?