Took a month off but I’m back baby, this time looking at the impact of the mid-year update.  Yearly balance updates are new and welcome feature of Mk4, helping to smooth out the game as it grows.  This year’s balance update was much larger than normal, and so we got a supplemental update in June as well, a small course correction to guide an evolving metagame. SFG themselves described the changes as “tweaking” and “a small, focused pass.” In my words: the nerf noodle instead of the nerf bat.

But I’ve wanted to know – did the Devs go far enough?  What changes were impactful, and which fell short?  So, like a moth to the flame, I’m drawn back to the Longshanks tournament data to evaluate the impact of the mid-year update.

The tables below show list-pair share (% of list pairs that include the leader) and win rate for the leaders most closely impacted by the update.  The post-update period shows rated Longshanks games from July 3–August 30; I excluded the first four weeks of the update to allow the meta game to adjust.  I compare that to a pre-update period from April 19–June 4; I chose that period so that the total number of games is similar in both time points (2,277 vs. 2,237).  For win rate, I excluded games against Fane of Nyrro to make the two time periods more comparable.

Buffed 🟩

n = games/pairs behind each figure. Arrows compare post-patch to pre-patch: 🟢▲ up · 🔴▼ down · 🟰 flat.

 The first group of leaders received buffs to different degrees.  I’m showing Calder and Huxley even though they weren’t buffed directly because I expected them to most benefit from the changes to the Courser and the Styker chassis. 

Nerfed 🟥

n = games/pairs behind each figure. Arrows compare post-patch to pre-patch: 🟢▲ up · 🔴▼ down · 🟰 flat.

The second group of leaders received nerfs.  The Child is here as a proxy for the Slaughterhouse; she was the second most popular Grymkin warlock and had the highest average number of houses per list (1.62). 

Edit: The table shows Yana for OU only - oops I forgot about the buffs to WK Yana.

My takeaways:

• Sample size caveat: some of these cells are thin, so don't read too much into any single number. Axis is the worst offender (n=3 post-update).
• The update impacted pick rates. Buffs pushed caster list-share up by >10% (Savaryn being the lone holdout) and nerfs pulled it down by roughly the same amount.
• The impact stuck. This isn't just people trying out the shiny new thing for a week. I deliberately cut the June window where meta-chasing peaked.
• Win rate can drop when a caster is buffed.  Several buffed casters got worse (Cyn, Huxley, Savaryn) and about half the nerfed ones got better.   This could partly be due to band wagoning; players trying out a newly updated leader can drag a win rate down.  Cyn’s the poster child for this:  14%→50% pick, 55%→46% win.  On the other hand, when something gets nerfed but stays playable, the casuals bail and you're left with the die-hard specialists who know the matchups, so win rate ticks up. That's your Old Witch / Lylyth / Baranova / Sabbreth cluster in a nutshell.
• My fancy statistical model thinks the win-rate changes are just noise.  Win rate is sensitive to the player pools and matchups.  When you account for those factors, the impact of the June update on win-rate is basically nil.
• Lylyth5 surprised me. Back in June, I thought she’d taken the biggest hit. Instead, she barely flinched and continues to FULL DRAW (69%→68% pick, 54%→56% win).
• Old Witch 2 face-tanked a double nerf.  Nerfs to and the Slaughterhouse, but her win rate went UP (55%→65%).
• What the hell is going on with Vilkul? 39%→70% win rate.  I mean, throwing the axe twice is good but is it +31% good? No idea, please speculate wildly in the comments.

Hey guys! A few days ago you guys helped me pick an army after returning from MK2. I went with cryx because it was the most different from what my friends picked and seemed spell heavy enough for my liking.

My only question is when I look in the app it does not show mechanithralls as undead? But the weeky shows them as both undead and tough? Am I missusing the app and how do I know which is correct? I have to assume they would be undead

Finished the first Marauder for my Brinebloods!

**Approved**
If you are looking for some Warmachine terrain we are part of the MMF summer sale! https://www.myminifactory.com/profile/Terrainiacs/store

The stage of my Nyrro painting done. Two Vordaks, both magnetised so theres head and arm options.

This gets me up to 50pts so I can start getting some larger games in.

With Fane now (mostly) released, one common theme I've seen floating around is the idea of token bloat in Warmachine. I decided to take a look at it, and it was some journey. I went in with an answer in mind, came out with a different answer and a whole new question instead.

Link: https://youtube.com/shorts/6OK90RIz0SM?feature=share

I've been using my Broken Egg Grymkin warsticks for some time now, but this Necrofactorium player is on the lookout for a set of measuring sticks which go beyond 10" and which have the numbers printed on all of them, including widgets (with combinations of inches, like 1", 2" and 3"). I've seen several sets on YouTube videos, often with a board that holds all of them, but I can't seem to find these online in non- Etsy fashion (except for Tree of Tales).

Does anyone have tips, preferably European solutions? I'd love to hear!

Hey Albuquerque tabletop gamers!

Whether you’re a seasoned commander looking for casual matches, testing out a new list, or a complete beginner interested in learning the rules, come hang out with us! We play casual Warmachine meetup every 2nd and 4th Sunday afternoon.

The Details:

• 📍 Where: Slice & Dice Pizzeria Eastside (Albuquerque)
• 🗓️ When: Every 2nd and 4th Sunday at 2:00 PM
• ⚔️ Format: Casual open play (Skirmishes, grand battles, intro demos, etc.)
• 🎒 What to bring: For veteran players: your army, dice, tape measure, and an appetite for pizza! For new players or people wanting to try out the game, feel free to stop by for a free demo.

All skill levels are welcome! If you're totally new to the game, feel free to stop by without any models. We're happy to run a demo game and teach you the basics!

Drop a comment if you're planning to stop by Sunday or if you have any questions!

We're back with another battle report featuring Aaron and Travis playing Tyrus vs The Heretic! This episode includes a wide ranging discussion touching on how to play when you're behind, scenario tempo, and conditional threat extension.

Enjoy!

So ive been painting minis for almost a year now, and this is my first ever warmachine miniature i painted (saw the Shadow and Scum box and i had to put my hands on it). I think it came out really nice. Just wanted to share this with yall

Hey guys!

Old mk2 vet here trying to get back into the game. I reread up on all the rules and saved up and found a friend group of 4 guys who want to get back into it.

My question is I'm trying to find a caster that plays an army style I would like. I don't want to play a "brick" army like I did in mk2 with khador

I want to play something that has a good mix of jacks/beasts and infantry while also being spell heavy and mobile.

I know there might not be anything that fits that description but I figured I would ask and see what the community thought

Last guys for my 100pt Thexus list all finished up. Amy shot and full group shot as well.

I'm based in Gloucestershire in the UK. Like most people I played in 2nd (in Cardiff) and dropped off since. Before I think about investing is there anyone here who plays near me?

Four people around me are experiencing the same problem. After installing the app to use the official app, I downloaded the in-app and was able to access the list normally. However, when I turned it back on after closing the app, it required an in-app download from the beginning. Does anyone know the solution to this problem?

So, I played (and still have) an old Retribution of Scyrah army. I've been told the faction is "gone" and my models would be next to useless. Is there a faction that would be similar enough in lore that could be recommended?

Hi, for my whole warmachine time I’ve had a battle foam and bag for transporting my minis. I’ve always hated foam but here I am 14 years later. I’m looking at a magnetic bases and bag, just looking for suggestions on what people use.

We are going live at 9AM CST! Come join us for three rounds of hot Warmachine action!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSvjIESOb0c

Morning All

Just a friendly reminder about upcoming Warmachine events in the Southwest Uk

- 5th September TTC have a “no frills” event in Exeter. Tickets are £6.00 and all the info is here : https://tivertontabletop.club/ttc-south-west-scrumpers-present-no-frills-steamroller/
- ⁠next up we’ve got Ocean City Miniatures in Plymouth on 1st November during the expo, tickets can be purchased here : https://www.eventbookings.com/b/event/ocean-city-game-expo-2026
- ⁠lastly Autumn Admonition, Domonets next all frills includes event on 15th November : https://tivertontabletop.club/special-events/ttc-present-autumn-admonition/

Have to get Vorsalys printed up next 🦇

I finished my Infantry unit last night, really great and characterful sculpts, a little busy but still really good. Can't wait for them to jungle jump some fools!

When it comes to games, is the starter set enough for a full game or would It be better to purchase an extra set just to play a full game with the optimal point value?

I am curious what the modern player base for warmachine looks like. I can only assume it’s made up of new players who didn’t get completely burned in the past.

Every army I used to play is a joke legend unit or whatever and the same is true for our whole local community. Why would any old players support a game that wrote out half their player base’s collections? I know no one near me will get back into it, and I make sure to warn people away whenever I see it in the wild.