Finished the first Marauder for my Brinebloods!

Took a month off but I’m back baby, this time looking at the impact of the mid-year update.  Yearly balance updates are new and welcome feature of Mk4, helping to smooth out the game as it grows.  This year’s balance update was much larger than normal, and so we got a supplemental update in June as well, a small course correction to guide an evolving metagame. SFG themselves described the changes as “tweaking” and “a small, focused pass.” In my words: the nerf noodle instead of the nerf bat.

But I’ve wanted to know – did the Devs go far enough?  What changes were impactful, and which fell short?  So, like a moth to the flame, I’m drawn back to the Longshanks tournament data to evaluate the impact of the mid-year update.

The tables below show list-pair share (% of list pairs that include the leader) and win rate for the leaders most closely impacted by the update.  The post-update period shows rated Longshanks games from July 3–August 30; I excluded the first four weeks of the update to allow the meta game to adjust.  I compare that to a pre-update period from April 19–June 4; I chose that period so that the total number of games is similar in both time points (2,277 vs. 2,237).  For win rate, I excluded games against Fane of Nyrro to make the two time periods more comparable.

Buffed 🟩

n = games/pairs behind each figure. Arrows compare post-patch to pre-patch: 🟢▲ up · 🔴▼ down · 🟰 flat.

 The first group of leaders received buffs to different degrees.  I’m showing Calder and Huxley even though they weren’t buffed directly because I expected them to most benefit from the changes to the Courser and the Styker chassis. 

Nerfed 🟥

n = games/pairs behind each figure. Arrows compare post-patch to pre-patch: 🟢▲ up · 🔴▼ down · 🟰 flat.

The second group of leaders received nerfs.  The Child is here as a proxy for the Slaughterhouse; she was the second most popular Grymkin warlock and had the highest average number of houses per list (1.62). 

Edit: The table shows Yana for OU only - oops I forgot about the buffs to WK Yana.

My takeaways:

• Sample size caveat: some of these cells are thin, so don't read too much into any single number. Axis is the worst offender (n=3 post-update).
• The update impacted pick rates. Buffs pushed caster list-share up by >10% (Savaryn being the lone holdout) and nerfs pulled it down by roughly the same amount.
• The impact stuck. This isn't just people trying out the shiny new thing for a week. I deliberately cut the June window where meta-chasing peaked.
• Win rate can drop when a caster is buffed.  Several buffed casters got worse (Cyn, Huxley, Savaryn) and about half the nerfed ones got better.   This could partly be due to band wagoning; players trying out a newly updated leader can drag a win rate down.  Cyn’s the poster child for this:  14%→50% pick, 55%→46% win.  On the other hand, when something gets nerfed but stays playable, the casuals bail and you're left with the die-hard specialists who know the matchups, so win rate ticks up. That's your Old Witch / Lylyth / Baranova / Sabbreth cluster in a nutshell.
• My fancy statistical model thinks the win-rate changes are just noise.  Win rate is sensitive to the player pools and matchups.  When you account for those factors, the impact of the June update on win-rate is basically nil.
• Lylyth5 surprised me. Back in June, I thought she’d taken the biggest hit. Instead, she barely flinched and continues to FULL DRAW (69%→68% pick, 54%→56% win).
• Old Witch 2 face-tanked a double nerf.  Nerfs to and the Slaughterhouse, but her win rate went UP (55%→65%).
• What the hell is going on with Vilkul? 39%→70% win rate.  I mean, throwing the axe twice is good but is it +31% good? No idea, please speculate wildly in the comments.

Hey guys! A few days ago you guys helped me pick an army after returning from MK2. I went with cryx because it was the most different from what my friends picked and seemed spell heavy enough for my liking.

My only question is when I look in the app it does not show mechanithralls as undead? But the weeky shows them as both undead and tough? Am I missusing the app and how do I know which is correct? I have to assume they would be undead