Typically, due to the warmer water in the Pacific Ocean shifting away from Australia during El Niño events, we see drought conditions, particularly in eastern Australia, where the overwhelming majority of the population lives. We are expected to see warm, drought conditions, resembling what we would normally see, but there are some differences due to how warm the baseline temperature of the ocean is.

Today is the first day of spring. In this part of NSW, it is 30 degrees celcius, which would not be unusual at this time of year if it was just a few days, but all of September is expected to be like this. This is due to stubborn high pressure holding out the cold winds we normally get in early spring. This is looking like it could be a very hot and dry start to spring for much of Australia, which is very dangerous given our infamous, regularly occurring bushfires.

One reprieve to the situation is that some warm water is still sitting around the western Pacific and the Tasman Sea, which I suspect is the reason meteorologists think we will see some rainfall in October. This is shaping up to be a dangerously hot next 8 months in Australia, lets hope that warm ocean water can bring enough rain to keep the cogs turning.

I'm a data scientist who is fascinated by the weather and would really appreciate your input.I'm a data scientist who is fascinated by the weather and would really appreciate your input.

I created a website comparing forecasts to historical weather in across 8,620 locations on earth since 1950.

Historical baseline: I use ERA5-Land, 0.1° (~11 km), daily tmax/tmin/precip/max-wind. Daily values are aggregated over the local solar day and a day's percentile is its rank inside a ±3-day day-of-year window across all years (~530 samples).

The seam: A reanalysis can't cover the present or future. ERA5-Land lags days for temperature and weeks for precip/wind. So today and the days ahead come from ECMWF IFS HRES. Two different products on the same card, and they disagree systematically based on location and altitude differences.

What I do about it: Per-variable CatBoost multi-quantile (9 levels, .05→.95) predicting the ERA5-Land value from the raw forecast, day-of-year, lat/lon, the ERA5-Land-vs-model elevation difference, and the cell as a native categorical. Trained on 7.6M matched daily pairs across 8,620 cells, Mar 2024 – Jul 2026, blocked-in-time split with a 3-day embargo. Held out, per-cell median MAE goes 0.96 → 0.70 °C (tmax) and 0.87 → 0.46 m/s (wind).

So does this make sense?

Take a closer look at WeatherBaseline.com

Or a much closer look at the eval notebook in https://github.com/theitush/WeatherBaseline/blob/main/debias/debias_eval.ipynb

Dear all

Im studying about jet stream.
When thinking about air cells : polar cells, ferrel cell (30-60), hadley cell (0-30),
I know polar jet stream is flowing around 60N.

In ferrel cell, high altitude flows from high latitude to low latitude. Which means, due to corioli effect, high altitude wind flows from east, not west.

In polar cell, high altitude wind flows in opposite direction, which causes westerly wind.

In that circumstance, it makes sense for me if jet stream is formed in polar cell. However, they say it is formed between 30-60N.
How does jet stream form in this location? Corioli effect does exact opposite to jet stream..

Thanks for your help!

Wikipedia says, "Invests are numbered from 90 to 99...", why is that? Why are other numbers not used? AND a follow up question: in the incredibly unlikely event there are more than 10 invests in the same basin, how will they be numbered, or is this a situation where, "if that's the case, we have bigger issues."?

What is that thick line across the sky that looks like a boundary between clouds?
I'm amazed. Looked like parted clouds to me. But my sister whos a little into this stuff said its probably be contrail.
Any idea?

Thanks

So long story short, I graduated with a Master's in meteorology last winter and have not been able to find any sort of weather-related job since. I've had a handful of interviews that haven't led anywhere, but that is it.

Does anyone have any sort of advice or places I can look for leads? I'm open to pretty much anywhere at this point.

Any advice is welcome!

3D view of Hurricane Katrina making landfall near Buras, Louisiana 21 years ago today.

What does everyone see??????

What is it? No rotation whatsoever.