Don’t worry guys, if you’re ever in doubt just know, I will be here with my strong hand.

I could be reading astrology don’t get me wrong but i definitely see a trend and the price is touching the trend line basically. If it breaks below we could be in trouble not sure. But I’ll be buying more either way. Holding for the future. Not investing advice

14.24 shares @ $152.56

So you didn’t mean to send the hoodies, or the bags holder, it wasn’t meant to be some sort of sick joke right??! Then speak up, about now, the stocks is tanking, you guys cashed in at the top, and there’s no news on where we are heading next… for the highest amount of executives compensation you guys do so little to protect shareholders

This could be the bottom we have all waited for...not trying to get my hopes up or your hopes, but we all have our roles here on Redditstocks.

Vermicelli is the Town Crier

Touuuuughny, before he went missing, was the wise sage

Bets is the thrasher of SBC nonsense, which includes my stupidity on downdays

And of course Horror, our beloved Horror, through his bipolar manias, trolling, he serves as the top and bottom indicator.

Thank you Horror for your sacrifice, if I would have followed the counter Horror signs, I would be rich, dont let this sign fail us now!

Investor sentiment over the past week has been poor. Happy to see Spez hosting GS on the 8th. We need to hear from him. I’m personally still convicted and believe in the business. Conversation from this sub over the past week has made me question my conviction.

Volume has been light the last week of trading sessions. Below average trading volume in comparison to volume seen before S&P inclusion. I’m surprised volume hasn’t been higher. We experienced a large rise in volume surrounding the S&P inclusion announcement and now volume has dropped off substantially. It seems most are unwilling to sell at these prices, but there’s few buyers as well.

I’d like to make this a more positive post to combat some of the negativity as of late. Let me hear from you. Why do you continue to hold? For me, I use the product daily for entertainment, news and information as well as ideas. I believe people crave community and will continue to seek it out in a world of AI. The ability to share ideas, debate amongst each other and explore different perspectives. Humans aren’t all created the same and everyone has something special to add. AI can’t replace that.

I don’t believe growth is done and I do believe monetization opportunities will continue to become apparent. Of course, I could be completely wrong. What do you think?

Seeing how emotional this sub is, I decided to buy back my Reddit stake (again). I legitimately treat this place as a capitulation indicator lol. The last time I saw some really good deals in semiconductor land, but now those stocks have pumped and, conveniently, Reddit has dumped. Anyways, onto the analysis

1. The bear case I hear more than anything else is the following: "Yeah, revenue right now is great, but man, those 'choppy' Google referrals are going to kill growth. It's not a theory anymore, we're already seeing a sequential decrease in US DAU!"

As someone who has been in the market for 10+ years, I've seen this argument get thrown a gazillion times. Some examples:

- Apple stopped reporting iPhone volumes in 2018, much to the panic of the analyst community. The market gave it a PE of ~12 and said that the era of growth is over because "it's the same phone every year, nobody will upgrade" This was literally the local bottom for the stock in November 2018

- Netflix loses subscribers for the first time in April 2022, stock falls an insane 35% in one day. Again, literally a tick away from the bottom, subsequently going on a 650% run in under four years

- Meta reported negative YoY growth in 2022 along with apple user privacy tracking block, again marked the absolute bottom for the stock.

Ok class, what have we learned here? For technology companies, the formula is: Revenue = Quantity sold (ads, hardware, etc) x ASP .. . .. . . it is NOT Revenue = Quantity sold (of product)

In the case of advertising companies, it is simply ads shown times average revenue per ad. This can be further reduced to conversion rates, time spent, etc. but for simplicity, the point is that for tech companies (Apple, Netflix, Meta), Wall Street has consistently underestimated how much ARPU can grow. For christ sake, even Apple could crank ARPU with operating leverage as such an insanely mature company!

Good news: you don't have to speculate how this applies to Reddit because meta has already done this for the last 15 years. Current meta user growth is peanuts (3% YoY, pretty much all third world low ARPU), but revenue is growing 28% YoY after Zuck already compounded the bejeezus out of it a decade post-IPO.

For the current price to pay off at the ridiculously low ~15PE for CY27 (not considering that 10% of market cap is cash btw), you need high teens CAGR revenue and decent operating leverage. Growth significantly above that, or high paying AI licensing deals, reddit getting acquired, etc. is probably enough for a strong, market-beating return.

Big bad scary AI overviews: I'm firmly in the camp that despite AI overviews, reddit benefits a lot from AI. Nobody seems to mention the fact that operating expenses are overwhelmingly talent hiring (aka. high paid Bay Area Software Engineers). I don't like AI replacing jobs as much as the next guy, but AI will either slow down headcount and allow operating leverage to churn like crazy, flat out reduce opex by slashing headcount, or more likely a combo of the two.

I think the overviews are bad, yes, but Google is heavily incentivized to differentiate search responses vs. ChatGPT / Claude. It is their entire business, and no differentiation means encroachment from competitors. One of the easiest ways Google has done this is adding a ton of reddit links, YouTube videos, and the likes. Search referrals might be "choppy", sure, but they are not going away like Google isn't going away (As someone who rode the 2025 $GOOG boat, the comparison feels extremely similar).

Also, keep in mind that Twitter is doing more than fine without getting search referrals like Reddit ever has. There's a large portion of people who WANT to go to Reddit specifically, not somewhere else.

The actual bear case: Reddit has actual problems, the biggest of which I believe is AI slop inundation, the algorithm not giving me interesting subreddits (this is the moat, u/spez, niche communities - we need better subreddit recommendations!), and the fact that Spez has majority voting control like Zuckerberg at meta. Now to be honest I think Spez is leaps and bounds a superior CEO, but Wall Street tends to give lower PEs to companies with supermajority control.

I don't think the threats are a snapchat or Pinterest-like collapse in revenue growth. Reddit is much closer to TikTok and Instagram in stickiness (one of the world's most visited websites btw), than those two. Pinterest's operating margin 10 years after optimizing this is a piss-poor sub 10%, LOL - I don't think it's a fair comparison.

Note: I've probably done too many of these long-form notes so I'll stop here. The only thing to do now is be patient, grab an iced tea (if you're into that, its my personal relaxation drink), and go about your day. If you believe in the fundamentals, all I'm saying is that a 50% upswing from here feels more likely than a 50% downswing (NFA, DYOR!).

Shoutout to u/touuuuhhhhny and u/imacompnerd, I borrowed a few of their arguments here :)

P.S. Written by hand (no AI) with love from the USA!

One of the cores of Reddit vs Anthropic (I believe) is whether Reddit's corpus can be simply treated as a corpus of text.

One transformational change Reddit claimed was their up/down vote system, which gives meaning to a given corpus of text (i.e post, comment, reply).

Was thinking about this, and I was thinking other transformational changes include:

1. Comments within a post (gives relational understanding of a comment to the bigger picture)

2. Comments tied to a user (gives relational understanding of the types of comments a given user posts and how people react - i.e. karma)

3. Moderation (which removes spam and troll posts; saves the LLM from training on bad data)

All to say, from a bottoms up perspective, I fully align that Reddit has a fair claim against Anthropic from using their data. Data not being the ownership of written text, but the relational aspect of the text, as well as its curated form.

Given the above, my understanding for why Anthropic would not want to go to discovery is because it opens up potential other lawsuits with similar forum-esque style of Reddit. The main ones being stack overflow with their nearly similar organization to Reddit and Github with the ability to star repos. Both of which id argue are very fundamental to Anthropic's value prop of being the best coding LLM so far.

One could argue that Anthropic could use synthetically generated data, but id imagine that data would be originally come from data trained on stack overflow and Github and Reddit, so would imagine that would still be grounds for suing (my guess, but would love for a lawyer to opine here if they have thoughts).

pls note that this is the first time I using earning based valuation. Previously the method i used was relative valuation based on Price to Sales.

(You can see the valuation here)

The reason why I feel that earnings based calculation is not so accurate because of the huge difference in estimating earnings growth as well as the short history of profitability of RDDT.

Disclosure: bought below 81, 138 and below 150 a month ago.

Lots of posts lately but just adding some quick thoughts. There’s so much headroom in global DAU/WAU + global (incl US) ARPU. Any data deal will be icing on the cake.

This recent obsession to TikTokify RDDT is a risk.

It must be difficult running a public company when investors (small to large) pressure you to X, Y, Z just because the share price isn’t where you want it TODAY, especially when your plans are working and you have objectively beat on every earning so far.

Steady improvements compounding what RDDT is good at makes sense to me.

And nothing rash in terms of data deals when the market is still figuring out what data is WORTH. Literally a 6 way+ fight for the data… is it worth millions? Is it worth billions? How could dynamic pricing work? Could/should exclusivity be given to a single company? Would the reciprocal traffic from say GOOG be a net positive?

Keep going team and ignore some of the screaming on here.

Reddit is a company that’s over 20 years old, and even if the number of users in the U.S. grows,
it’s only a tiny fraction.

I have no idea why the market is reacting so sensitively to this.

The key is how to use AI to boost ARPU and revenue rather than relying on the U.S. DAU, and Reddit does both of those things very well.

Even if data licensing revenue declines, assuming sales continue as they are now, I think the current stock price is very, very undervalued.

I believe that no matter how much the U.S. DAU stagnation problem and data licensing decline, it should still be maintained at least at $180. The market is overreacting way too much.

Reddit’s overseas users, and Reddit’s revenue are increasing. This is the biggest point.

[ I think I used a translator and didn’t write the text properly. It didn’t mean that the U.S. DAU was of low proportion. However, it meant that it was already very mature, so the growth rate would be slow.

Therefore, I think revenue growth rate and ARPU are important. What do you think about this? ]

Much Lower price than pre sp500 inclusion, we’ve destroyed a huge amount of value from the inclusion, well done Reddit.

Text forums when everyone’s addicted to TikTok and ai queries, random permanent bans, forums just rehashing AI bot slop.

‘People come to reddit for reddit.’
Genius statement by spez.
And that is why people will continue to quit going to Reddit. Growth has been decelerating every quarter. The app is at max saturation and the company has no idea what to do to expand the US market.

Meanwhile I see people spending 5 hours straight on TikTok, and buying directly from TikTok shop.

Will Reddit add new engagement forms and shopping or are they waiting for Sp500 removal at this rate?

OpenAI announced today they hit a $1B annualized revenue run rate for ChatGPT Ads after just 200 days. This news caused the digital ad industry to pull back on fears of an impact to their ad business since ad dollars are a finite source of marketing capital.

IMO it won’t have a significant impact to RDDT due to the sheer diversity of subreddits and product discussions that occur here. People love to hear the conversations behind products and understand them deeper. AI can’t provide that type of human granularity so people will still seek Reddit for product info before making purchase decisions.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openais-ad-business-hits-1-billion-annualized-revenue-run-rate-2026-08-31/

Good listen. Seems bullish. Will give you a new take on Moderators.

In addition to standard ad posts, there could be an ability to 'promote' a post or comment. You could sort by 'promoted' and it would correlate to how much has been spent on that post/comment. Advertisers could spend cash for promotion points and distribute them to posts/comments as they see fit. Reddit subscribers would also get a set amount of promotion points to spend each month and could pay for more.

As long as it's transparent and independent from the voting system, and you can sort by either I don't see how/why it would negatively impact user experience.

Let me start this with a caveat: when the most loyal investors bail, it’s usually the bottom.

I’ve held RDDT stock for a long time and recently sold all my holdings, as I briefly mentioned a few weeks ago. 

Although revenue and free cash flow growth is phenomenal and management is doing an incredible job with capex, margins, and overall discipline, I feel that the factors below outweigh, at least in the near  term, this performance:

1) The Google deal. With it, the fresh-Reddit-data-is-valuable thesis is solidified when the gorilla in the industry validates it. The more others sign on (OpenAI et al) the more concrete the thesis becomes.  Without it though, the market values Reddit solely on its ad platform, resulting in a lower multiple. Further, any hint of a war with Google (Google pushing Reddit links to page 2 for example) would be devastating for the stock. If you look at the growth of Reddit over the past several years, it directly correlates with Google pushing Reddit results. 

2) Even with a Google deal, AIO/LLM’s are a real problem. I find myself using them more and more and directly bypassing Reddit. Same goes for the LLM’s, the better they get, the less incentive there is for a casual user to go directly to the forum. 

3) Regulations, such as limiting the age or also how much content a user can view, are another threat. Meta recently settled a case, but there are more pending across the industry. Regulators, rightly so, want to limit the power of these platforms, as well as their addictive qualities. This will only be rising over the years to come as backlash intensifies against Big Tech, and this will affect even smaller platforms such as Reddit. 

4) Limits of the platform. Reddit feels like 
Twitter. It’s primarily text-based, has a loyal group of hardcore users, but it’s hard to commercialize on a large scale. Video-based apps like Instagram and Tik Tok are just far more valuable to advertisers since it’s easier to convert. Think about how many more ads you click on IG vs Reddit, there is no comparison. Also, I don’t feel Reddit has innovated enough over the years.

5) US DAU. The stagnation is real, not just in user numbers, but in time spent on the site. They have yet to show how they’re going to reverse this.

6) Insider selling. Some may think it’s not relevant, but it rubs me the wrong way to see this incessant selling, even after they’ve sold so much and the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. Sorry, but I’ve been investing for decades and I’ve had really bad experiences when management always sells and never buys on the open market.

Would love for someone to challenge my ideas as I do like the site and want to fall back in love with the stock.

Meta ad revenue projected to surpass Google search for the first time by the end of this year.

Google may need to acquire an asset light ad revenue generating machine like perhaps RDDT to regain their previously strong lead.

In all seriousness though not sure what the full read through here is for RDDT but figured I’d share to provide insight on Reddit’s sub-industry and GOOG being a massive partner/ (and competitor) and META a competitor for ad spend $.

Soon enough we’ll be at 500 and on our dad’s boat having a good time

Reddit ad integration with Shopify is doing well. They also introduced Reddit community targeting for Shopify sellers.

Saw this in stocks subreddit

Just saw that the EU officially designated Reddit as a “Very Large Online Platform” under the DSA after crossing the 45M monthly EU user threshold.

Obviously there’s some downside here with more compliance requirements/costs, but I’m wondering if there’s also a positive angle.

Reddit reported up to 57.2M monthly active recipients in the EU in H1 2026, so at the very least this seems like another confirmation that Reddit is getting pretty damn big internationally.

Could also create a bit of a moat since smaller platforms probably have a harder time dealing with all the regulatory/compliance costs at this scale.

Don’t think it moves the stock either way, but interesting development nonetheless.

Curious what everyone thinks. Net negative because of regulation, or actually a decent sign for Reddit’s international growth?

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2094364735747637315

EU regulation (wow!)

Relevant to reddit (AI summarized):

Specifically, the EU is forcing Reddit to act on four major fronts:

1. Stripping Anonymity Guards for Illegal Content

Reddit has always championed pseudonymous posting. However, under the Digital Services Act (DSA), the EU is forcing Reddit to implement highly responsive, standardized "Notice and Action" mechanisms. If an EU user or a government-appointed "trusted flagger" reports illegal content (such as hate speech, copyright piracy, or non-consensual imagery), Reddit cannot simply leave it to volunteer subreddit moderators. The corporate entity must review, log, and remove it globally or block it in the EU immediately, while providing a clear "statement of reasons" to the user who posted it. [5]

2. Taming the "Rabbit Hole" Algorithms

The Commission is targeting how Reddit's algorithms serve content. Reddit must now re-engineer its systems to: [2]

• Prevent radicalization and echo chambers: The platform must mathematically prove that its home feed, popular feeds, and subreddit recommendations do not push users toward harmful content or disinformation. [4]
• Offer a non-algorithmic feed: Reddit must offer EU users a clear option to browse the site entirely chronologically or without personalized tracking. [5]
• Ban predatory ad-targeting: Reddit is forbidden from targeting advertisements to minors or using sensitive personal data (like religion, sexual orientation, or political beliefs) to serve ads. [5]

3. Forcing Structural Protections for Minors

Reddit is heavily used by teenagers. The EU is demanding that Reddit implement "appropriate and proportionate measures" to guarantee the privacy, safety, and security of minors. This means Reddit will likely have to enforce stricter age-gating, default maximum-privacy settings for teenage accounts, and aggressive measures to stop grooming or cyberbullying across public r/all feeds and private direct messages. [4]

4. Opening the Algorithm to Audits

The European Commission is stripping away Reddit’s corporate secrecy. Reddit is now legally required to: [2]

• Pay for its own annual independent compliance audits.
• Give external, vetted EU researchers and regulators direct access to its internal data and algorithms to inspect how its ranking software works. [1, 5]

The Timeline: Reddit has exactly four months (until the end of December 2026) to implement these changes. If they fail to meet the standards by the deadline, the Commission can fine Reddit up to 6% of its global annual revenue. [1, 6]