edit: u/hsiale and u/Brunnun pointed out that the Esper deck in second place is, in fact, Esper Blink, not Goyro. I can't change the post title, and it doesn't change much, but I edited the whole metagame breakdown to align with the data. My mistake I should check data more carefully.
Another traditional metagame breakdown here, in this window I look up into, 26 Challenges plus one large paper tournament inside the same two weeks. I do not have complete data from the tournament, but I do what I can with what I can get. If you have access to more detailed data, let me know! It will be cool to be able to access CSV files from Spotlight.
As I expected last week, Prowess became the largest deck on MTGO at 10%, but it is also the largest deck in Brisbane at 13%, and won the paper event in the hands of Jefferson Lee. The largest surprise of the event was (or maybe I should say wasn’t) Esper Blink, second deck on MTGO with 10% of the field and four trophies, was at most 16 of 573 decks in Brisbane. It is cool to be able to compare big paper events with my MTGO data and find they are quite similar; the more I learn about the meta, the more accurate information I can deliver to all of you.
As always, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.
TL;DR
- Izzet Prowess won Magic Spotlight in Brisbane, 573 decks, while Esper Blink is second
- Three decks won 12 of the 26 trophies: Prowess 4, Esper Blink 4, Goryo's Vengeance 4
- Boros Energy no trophies, Top 8 in 2 of 26 events, conversion 11%, where a field median is 29%
- Combo is the largest archetype at 24% of meta, but has lower conversion than median (21 vs 29%)
- Aggro and Graveyard get 6 trophies each, from 23% and 17% of the meta
- Control conversion is 15%, it was present in 8 of 26 Top 8, and won one trophy
- Goryo's Vengeance conversion 37%, highest among the top five decks
- Ramp delta +92pp, highest of the seven, Top 8 in 14 of 26 events and 2 trophies
Magic Spotlight: The Hobbit, Brisbane (paper, outside the Challenge pool)
- Cream the la cream of this breakdown, so here are some numbers about this event.
- Players compete in Modern Constructed, 2026-08-28 to 2026-08-30 in Brisbane Convention Centre
- Tournament gathered 573 decks on day one, which translated into 132 on day two, overall day 1 to day 2 conversion 23%
- On day 1, Players have to complete 9 rounds of Swiss and get 18 match points to go to day two
- On day two, they play 6 rounds and a Top 8
- The whole event was won by Jefferson Lee on Izzet Prowess, His score was 15-2-1 including the Top 8
- In the Top 8 we also see the following decks: Izzet Prowess, Esper Blink, Azorius Loki, Mono-Green Broodscale, Boros Land Destruction, Gruul Broodscale, Grixis Affinity, Izzet Affinity. So Affinity and Broodscale (different flavors but still) get half of the Top 8!
- Izzet Prowess was 13% of day one, and it was the largest deck in the paper field, similar to on MTGO
- Esper Goryo's got 8% on day one and 11% on day two, with conversion at 33%, it was the best of the tournament in my opinion, and this also stays in line with MTGO data, where it is the overall best modern deck right now
- Ruby Storm (5%) and Eldrazi Tron (4%) of day one, both have conversion under 13%
- Boros Energy 4% of meta on both days, with conversion at 23%, was absent in the Top 10
- Azorius Loki in third, an archetype that I have seen in my data for some time, but it was always below the Universe A cut line.
This window in numbers
- 26 Challenges, 4 tiers: C64 x16, C96 x4, C16 x3, C32 x3
- Universe A (encounter probability at or above 5%): 24 decks, Universe B: 43 decks. So Universe B is almost two times larger then A.
- Median delta +57pp, median conversion 29%
- 13 different decks took the 26 trophies, three of them win 4 four trophies!
- Trophy split by archetype: Aggro 6, Graveyard 6, Combo 5, Blink 4, Midrange 2, Ramp 2, Control 1
- 473 pilots in Challenge Top 32, 24 of them with a one trophy, two with two
Combo
- meta 23.63%
- Top32 26/26
- Top8 20/26
- trophies 5
- conv 21%
- delta +76.4pp
- Win/Top32 3%
- WR 49% (95% CI 47 to 51, n=2177)
Second window in a row, the combo has the highest presence in a meta but the lowest conversion. I have two ideas why, one is the same as one week ago, the archetype is large, a lot of inexperienced players play, and it dilutes the results. Second, show up because this low conversion rate is constant; the metagame may adapt to Combo decks and develop strategies in other decks that allow it to beat Combo decks more often. This situation may lead to a drop in combo popularity in the next few weeks because combo newcomers will leave the archetype in favor of winning decks like Prowess or Blink.
Broodscale Combo | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Rising
- meta 8.38%
- Top32 24/26
- Top8 12/26
- trophies 2
- conv 23%
- delta +83.9pp
- Win/Top32 3%
- WR 48% (95% CI 44 to 52, n=723)
Broodscale is now the largest Combo deck in the format, but I noticed that it has fallen off in conversion and is more to the left side of WR. It is probably the effect of the popularity that causes this deck to look like a simple construction to play and win on a spot. I believe that Broodscale numbers do not support that. Two trophies show that decks are powerful constructions, but low conversion relative to its large meta share is a sign that it is not a pick-and-win deck.
Devoted Combo | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta 6.17%
- Top32 23/26
- Top8 10/26
- trophies 2
- conv 26%
- delta +82.3pp
- Win/Top32 4%
- WR 53% (95% CI 49 to 57, n=599)
A little bit over 6% of metashare, so the most popular deck of the format from two weeks ago is falling in popularity. But still got two trophies, has a very solid WR with low CI at 49%, and solid conversion. So my theory is that good players who master the deck stick with it, and the current deck metrics reflect a player base that has shed the dead weight of weak players who constantly switch to a new popular meta deck.
Ruby Storm | Combo | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Falling
- meta 2.44%
- Top32 16/26
- Top8 5/26
- trophies 1
- conv 30%
- delta +59.1pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 52% (95% CI 46 to 58, n=227)
Last week, we talked about Strom on Substack, and this is not a metagame where this deck is a good choice. As we can see in this window, the deck makes a small surprise and wins a trophy. It is some kind of tradition here that I talk about one deck not being great, and then it gets a good run. Despite that deck having solid conversion and WR, I will not consider this as a sign that the meta is more Storm-friendly; it's rather a one-shot run. If those results persist over the next 2-4 weeks, it might be a sign that something has changed.
Aggro
- meta 22.83%
- Top32 26/26
- Top8 22/26
- trophies 6
- conv 25%
- delta +77.2pp
- Win/Top32 3%
- WR 50% (95% CI 48 to 52, n=2127)
Second archetype of the format, Aggro is solidifying its hold on second place, and, following Izzet Prowess's recent results in the Spotlight Series, I expect it to make a run for the top spot. Six trophies, presence in all challenge top 32, and 26 T8 shows that aggro is in a counterattack.
Prowess | Aggro | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta 10.48%
- Top32 26/26
- Top8 18/26
- trophies 4
- conv 30%
- delta +89.5pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 52% (95% CI 49 to 55, n=1014)
So we're back in a place where Aggro deck is the biggest deck in a format. Prowess has some trouble sometimes, but now, in this meta, it is a great choice. I expect Prowess to be the deck to beat in modern for most players. Especially after the Spotlight Series, I would not recommend this deck for new players, as there will be a lot of hate here. Deck got four trophies, over the median conversion, and was present in all T32 and almost 70% of T8 challenges. Combine it with a really solid WR from over 1000 game samples, and you have a deck that is everywhere and wins a lot. This is a MUST to prepare for in the next two weeks. It will be fun to see how the metagame will adapt to this killing machine.
Affinity | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Rising
- meta 4.07%
- Top32 18/26
- Top8 6/26
- trophies 2
- conv 23%
- delta +65.2pp
- Win/Top32 6%
- WR 51% (95% CI 46 to 56, n=355)
Second Aggro deck has 4% of metashare and its rising in popularity. Fair WR and low conversion but two trophies. Affinity enters T8 six times, so it is not impressive, but two trophies from such a small presence is something that gets my attention. Might it be that a slight metashift makes a window for Affinity players to sneak into the top and close the runs? Also, we have not seen much Affinity recently, so people are unprepared and focusing on other decks. It is worth observing because if these metrics remain at this level or start to rise, we could see Affinity return to the metagame.
Boros Energy | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta 3.49%
- Top32 17/26
- Top8 2/26
- trophies 0
- conv 11%
- delta +61.9pp
- Win/Top32 0%
- WR 44% (95% CI 38 to 50, n=297)
Boros has quite a hard time right now, lost a lot of meta share, does not have the best WR, has poor conversion, and has no trophies. I believe that bans and a metagame shift take out Boros energy from the top for a long time, and I'm not sure if it will ever return. On top now we had faster decks (Prowess) and those with better late game (Blink, Goyro’s). Right now, we can observe a rise of Jeskai Energy, a Boros variant with blue splash for Quantum Riddler. Jeskai version won the premier event two weeks ago and is becoming more and more visible in the data. Energy needs Riddler to be able to compete in the midgame and avoid being out-grinded by decks with better card draw. The cost of explosiveness and speed is real. That makes me think that if Boros Energy is splashing additional color to have access to Riddler, isn't that a sign that this card is heavily warping the metagame in its favor? We see Riddler in many, many decks right now, and it looks like the most powerful creature in modern right now.
Graveyard
- meta 16.65%
- Top32 25/26
- Top8 20/26
- trophies 6
- conv 30%
- delta +79.5pp
- Win/Top32 4%
- WR 51% (95% CI 48 to 53, n=1618)
Great conversion and six trophies show that the Graveyard strategy is still super powerful and can give a good pilot extraordinary results. But Graveyard loses some metashare to Aggro and now is the third archetype in the field.
Goryo's Vengeance | Graveyard | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Falling
- meta 8.73%
- Top32 25/26
- Top8 20/26
- trophies 4
- conv 37%
- delta +87.4pp
- Win/Top32 6%
- WR 53% (95% CI 50 to 56, n=867)
The best deck in a format (in my opinion) continues its march. It loses some metashare from last week, but it is not something to worry about. Great conversion, the best in the top decks, great WR with low CI at 50% (!), four trophies, and presence in almost all challenges T32. Also, it has the best conversion into Day Two. This shows how powerful this deck is. I expect its popularity to rise after the spotlight, along with its prowess. The falling signal is mostly due to small falls and probably some players transitioning into prowess or Esper, but it is not noticeable enough to worry about.
Living End | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta 3.38%
- Top32 17/26
- Top8 6/26
- trophies 2
- conv 25%
- delta +62.0pp
- Win/Top32 7%
- WR 50% (95% CI 45 to 55, n=320)
Living End is a perfect example of how mastering a single deck can yield extraordinary results. Living End, as an overall deck, does not look like the best choice: below-median conversion, a small amount of top8, and coin-flip WR. It is also below 4% meta share deck, but in the hands of a skilled pilot, MeninoNey, was able to be the top Player in my challenge league table (sure, it is a short period of time and the test season, but still look at his stats!), which you might find in here: Modern Pilot League. Congrats to MeninoNey and his persistence in playing one pet deck.
4c HollowOne | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Rising
- meta 2.91%
- Top32 15/26
- Top8 5/26
- trophies 0
- conv 21%
- delta +54.8pp
- Win/Top32 0%
- WR 47% (95% CI 41 to 53, n=262)
This deck saw the biggest jump in metagame share from 0.4% in W33 to 2.9%. But below median conversion, not a great win rate doesn't bode well for the future at the moment for this deck.
Midrange
- meta 11.41%
- Top32 25/26
- Top8 18/26
- trophies 2
- conv 26%
- delta +84.7pp
- Win/Top32 2%
- WR 47% (95% CI 44 to 50, n=1102)
Midrange is basically without major changes in this window. Fewer than expected trophies, but a fair presence in T32 and T8. Conversion 3pp below the median and winrate with a higher CI on 50%. It is like ok-ish but as it is my favorite archetype I always expect more from it.
Domain Zoo | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta 2.68%
- Top32 16/26
- Top8 6/26
- trophies 0
- conv 27%
- delta +58.9pp
- Win/Top32 0%
- WR 47% (95% CI 41 to 53, n=235)
Zoo is now at about 3% market share, which aligns with Spotlight data. Conversion is below median; WR from a not-a-great sample is toward the left, so a losing side rather than a winning one. As a whole, Midrange archetype Zoo struggles in the current metagame. I believe that it is time to reconsider the deck, and as I talk on my YT ad DKT to a list again because of Esper dominance. Also, Clarion Conqueror seems like a nice addition to the main board. Still waiting for a trophy!
Dimir Midrange | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta 2.33%
- Top32 14/26
- Top8 9/26
- trophies 1
- conv 48%
- delta +51.5pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 47% (95% CI 41 to 53, n=249)
Again, Dimir Midrange wins a trophy, with a high conversion rate, but lower than Zoo's presence in T32, but higher in Top8, suggesting that this deck has experienced pilots who play it often, and when they go into a challenge, they go to T8. Still has the same problem as the whole Midrange: probably can't keep up against top-deck card advantage or the speed of Prowess. The last one is probably quite hard MU for Dimir players. Maybe we have some here to tell us what struggles the most in the current meta?
Mono-Black Midrange | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta 1.16%
- Top32 12/26
- Top8 4/26
- trophies 0
- conv 33%
- delta +45.0pp
- Win/Top32 0%
- WR 54% (95% CI 45 to 62, n=129)
Just a little bit over 1% deck, the best in 1% decks' presence in T8. Solid conversion, but in such a low field share, treat it like an artifact, not solid data. This deck shows up from time to time. Quite a nice off-meta construction that proves you don’t have to go with high metadeck to make solid scores.
Blink
- meta 10.36%
- Top32 26/26
- Top8 15/26
- trophies 4
- conv 29%
- delta +89.6pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 55% (95% CI 52 to 58, n=936)
One deck archetype, other variants like BW Blink are below 0.5%, so I will do a longer discussion in a deck chapter rather than here.
Esper Blink | Blink | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta 10.01%
- Top32 26/26
- Top8 15/26
- trophies 4
- conv 31%
- delta +90.0pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 55% (95% CI 52 to 58, n=896)
So here we are with a rising star of the Modern Metagame. All stats for this deck are extraordinary: four trophies, above the median WR, conversion, and Delta. If you look more closely, you will notice that this deck has a lower CI of 52%! And this is wild, especially that sample came from almost 900 games. It is also a second deck in a whole field. If this continues next week, I will call it the best deck in modern. It was also second in Spotlight, but as an archetype, it was not that much present in the field. I think it is because the paper metagame shifts much more slowly, and top players choose well-known and established decks. I expect that Esper Blink will rise a lot after the second place, and we will see a lot of copies in the next tournament.
Ramp
- meta 7.57%
- Top32 26/26
- Top8 14/26
- trophies 2
- conv 26%
- delta +92.4pp
- Win/Top32 3%
- WR 51% (95% CI 47 to 54, n=808)
Ramp is doing ok, solid WR, two trophies, and presence in all of 26 T32. Conversion is below median but not much. It is a solid archetype, but nothing spectacular happening in here for a long time. I don’t know why, because all the metrics say Ramp is a solid choice to play. Maybe I don't expect it to be one of the top 3 archetypes, but it deserves a higher metashare. I think I need to merge all Tron lists, cause sure, they differ a little in the card list, but the idea is the same, and this gives less granularity in the archetype.
Mono-Green Eldrazi | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta 2.33%
- Top32 13/26
- Top8 6/26
- trophies 1
- conv 30%
- delta +47.7pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 54% (95% CI 48 to 60, n=254)
Mono green Eldrazi is probably the best ramp deck right now, but has only about 2% of metashare. It wins one trophy, has a really good conversion rate, and a solid win rate with a lower CI at 48%. Also, from 13 T32 it gets six T8, which is a really good score.
Tron | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Rising
- meta 1.98%
- Top32 9/26
- Top8 4/26
- trophies 0
- conv 31%
- delta +32.6pp
- Win/Top32 0%
- WR 49% (95% CI 42 to 56, n=199)
Tron has the lowest presence in T32 among all decks, with over 2% metashare in the format. No trophies and 4 T8. So if we look, we can see that if Tron reaches T32, it has a good chance of getting into T8. It suggests that this deck has a small group of experienced players who play well and can deliver a good score.
Eldrazi Tron | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta 1.63%
- Top32 11/26
- Top8 2/26
- trophies 0
- conv 13%
- delta +40.7pp
- Win/Top32 0%
- WR 43% (95% CI 35 to 51, n=146)
Low conversion and WR (from a small sample) and only two T8 entries. It was not a great week for E-Tron.
Control
- meta 5.93%
- Top32 23/26
- Top8 8/26
- trophies 1
- conv 15%
- delta +82.5pp
- Win/Top32 2%
- WR 47% (95% CI 43 to 52, n=515)
Not a great week for control, very low conversion, and a WR that might be a lot better. Control is right now the smallest archetype. I remember that during the dominance of Jeskai Blink and Boros, their control was also in trouble. It is not as bad as it was, but I expect that Esper Blink and Prowess may push out control again.
Land Destruction | Control | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta 2.56%
- Top32 16/26
- Top8 6/26
- trophies 1
- conv 30%
- delta +59.0pp
- Win/Top32 5%
- WR 53% (95% CI 47 to 59, n=228)
Only control deck above 5% ecounter rate threshold. We also need to remember that it is not a typical control deck; it attacks the mana base, and, given how fragile mana is in this format, that explains why it is the only control deck that gets a trophy. I wonder if Prowess will become a reason that helps push LD out of the metagame. It seems quite resilient against mana attacks. Unfortunately, LD was in a T8 in Spotlight, so we can expect a rise in popularity of this deck.
Premier events
We have one premier event in this window, a Showcase Challenge. Winer was Rastaf with Esper Blink, and other T8 were: Ruby Storm, Goryo's Vengeance, Goryo's Vengeance, Devoted Combo, Affinity, Belcher, Ruby Storm. In the whole T32 of the event, we have Esper Blink and Eldrazi, 5 copies each, and Goryo's Vengeance, 4. Ruby Strom is a surprise because it takes two T8 slots, and the presence of Belcher is interesting.
Pilots
- 473 pilots in Challenge Top 32 across 26 events
- 24 pilots took a trophy, 22 of them exactly one
- 2 pilots with two trophies: MeninoNey on Living End, jussupinator on Goryo's Vengeance
- jussupinator AvgPlace 2.3 from 3 Top 32 entries, best average in the window
- MeninoNey 9 Top 32 entries, 5 Top 8, the deepest runs of the window
- 8 pilots reached 3 or more Top 8
- no pilot won with two different decks this window
On the Radar (Universe B, below 5% encounter, present in Challenges)
- 5c Midrange: meta 0.12%, Top32 1/26, Top8 1/26, 1 trophy, WR 59% (95% CI 40 to 76, n=25). Quite an interesting list, still I will not expect to see much more of this list in future challenges. It looks quite hard to pilot.
- Amulet Titan: meta 1.05%, Top32 8/26, Top8 0/26, trophies 0, WR 41% (95% CI 32 to 51, n=93). Amulet Titan players are still present in metagame, but not doing great. Spotlight Series data confirms that.
- Azorius Control: meta 0.81%, Top32 8/26, Top8 0/26, trophies 0, WR 43% (95% CI 32 to 55, n=65)
- Kethis Combo: meta 0.23%, Top32 2/26, Top8 1/26, trophies 0, WR 48% (95% CI 30 to 66, n=26)
- Simic Tron: no league presence at all, Top32 2/26, Top8 1/26, trophies 0. Rouge construction that made quite a deep run.
- Song of Creation: no league presence at all, Top32 1/26, Top8 1/26, trophies 0. I see this deck time to time in leagues, but no 5-0 in recent times, as far as I know.
Trophy distribution, all 26
- Prowess 4, Esper Blink 4, Goryo's Vengeance 4
- Affinity 2, Devoted Combo 2, Broodscale Combo 2, Living End 2
- Eldrazi Ramp 1, Land Destruction 1, Mono-Green Eldrazi 1, Dimir Midrange 1, Ruby Storm 1, 5c Midrange 1
- 13 different decks, three of them with 4
- archetype split: Aggro 6, Graveyard 6, Combo 5, Blink 4, Midrange 2, Ramp 2, Control 1
So, as we all can see, the metagame is changing; we have three Tier 1 decks, and the rest try to beat them. Is this a healthy state or do you rather like this wild mete after the bans? I'm a little afraid that the success of those three decks will cause them to go even higher in meta share, and we will end up in a metagame where 70% of the meta is those three decks. We will see in the upcoming weeks. Thanks for reading all of this 😊
Karol Małota
aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace