r/StandUpComedy • u/explosivejoseph • 4h ago
Comedian is OP The AI Bubble
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u/explosivejoseph 4h ago
Aaaanyway in good news....Plenty of live shows at www.joeyavery.com and more over at my sub r/JoeyAvery
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u/Ghetto_Phenom 4h ago
Any chance of you coming to WA in the future? Love your sets.
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u/gnarl_foot 52m ago
Have you been asked to do any corporate gigs recently? I'd love to see you do the same material in front of the ghouls responsible lol
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u/edvurdsd 4h ago
Well said
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u/PantsDontHaveAnswers 4h ago
I know some of these words.
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u/Aconite13X 4h ago
"Well" means "good" and "said" means "spoken"
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u/Don_Von_Schlong 4h ago
good spoken
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u/Aconite13X 4h ago
You understand
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u/domredditorX 2h ago
None of those words are in bible therefore I understand not
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u/AceOBlade 3h ago
basically regular people are investing in stocks that could fail, but right before they would fail people that are making decisions on these AI stocks will rug pull and get their money back while the regular people would have useless stocks that are worth nothing.
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u/logand98 4h ago
Pretty much spot on, did not expect actual financial analysis from a comedy set lmao
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u/Sidivan 4h ago
I did not expect to ever hear Joey say “exit liquidity” in a set, but here we are.
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u/CoachWatermelon 1h ago
Strange I watch him a lot and find that very in character of him to know and say
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u/Animanic1607 4h ago edited 2h ago
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u/welchplug 4h ago
Yeah but its more impressive here because he didn't know it was coming.
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u/Animanic1607 4h ago edited 2h ago
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u/Emotional_News108 3h ago
He isn’t just spouting off buzzwords though he at least seems to grasp the core concept and larger long-term issues.
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u/hyeongseop 4h ago
Yeah that really surprised me. Had no idea Joey was a finbro
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u/orange-yellow-pink 2h ago edited 1h ago
Most of what he said isn't true. Firstly, no high profile AI company has gone public and when a company IPOs they don't "use index funds to artificially inflate their value". That latter sentence doesn't even make sense. Index funds just buy the companies that are included in an index. A company can’t put itself in one or somehow use them to pump up its own value.
The part that is true is that when a company goes public and its shares are traded on the market, early investors like VCs can eventually sell their shares and make money.
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u/FluroSnow 42m ago
SpaceX is a high profile AI company (debatable) that has gone public. It worked for spacex. Anthropic and OpenAI want to essentially do the same.
One could argue that they did indeed inflate their price by utilising index funds. They had a 3x float multiplier. Only about 4% of their public free float was made availiable. As a result index funds had to purchase more shares than availiable supply warrents
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u/s_nation 3h ago
people have been screaming this over and over again for the past year, Ed Zitron, Cory Doctorow, Emily Bender, they're a popular presence on all these tech and finance podcasts and channels, he's summarizing what they've all been saying, it's bigger than the dot com bubble, the gains don't justify the capex spending...etc
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u/Large-Treacle-8328 3h ago
There also isn't any real gains because it's nothing more than a few large companies shuffling money around to look profitable when they're actually losing a shit ton of money.
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u/WestCoastBestCoast01 2h ago
Well appreciation is a real part of any gain, it’s just that gains are supposed to, and usually do, include income/earnings. It’s the income that’s missing, making the whole gain speculative appreciation.
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u/julian88888888 1h ago
truthfully misunderstands how most VCs make their money. They sell in earlier private rounds. Investment banking is usually Pre-Post IPO.
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u/Katicflis1 4h ago
Im here for comedy not depression dammit...
(But it was great as usual -- dude always so damn quick/witty)
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u/motorboatmycheeks 4h ago
I like that at the end the one laughing the hardest is the vc. Like yeahh yall fucked
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u/vanillaninja16 4h ago
Well yea, can’t get into venture capitalism is your intent isn’t to fuck other people over.
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u/hnglmkrnglbrry 3h ago
I once hung out with my good friend and his VC coworkers. We tailgated a football game and I spent 2 hours watching the most self-righteous pig-headed dbags abuse every substance on earth. I ended up just walking away with no warning.
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u/EquivalentBeach8780 3h ago
Yeah, she's actually not a good person. Evil, even.
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u/RandomUser15790 2h ago
Old company got bought out by a VC and they were like "Nothing is going to change guys! We bought it because we love it for what it is! Insert corporate jargon and empty platitudes."
50% of the business wasn't actually related to anything they cared about. 70/100 employees were laid off in under 18 months (including ~20 from their own industry side).
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u/utzutzutzpro 1h ago
Companies do not get bought out by a VC company. That would be PE. PE would just buy companies. VC only invests.
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u/heyimwalknhere 4h ago
She's like "yeah totally, its gunna mess with so much shit and ruin so many lives but I'm getting paid hahahhhhaaa"
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u/bryanna_leigh 4h ago
He ain’t wrong!
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u/redditsuckscockss 3h ago
Hasn’t there been 0 actual AI companies IPO and enter the index?
I know Anthropic and others are going to IPO but don’t think any others have yet?
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u/treacherous_tim 3h ago
SpaceX is in some, although not the S&P500. xAI (and recently acquired Cursor) roll up through SpaceX
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u/ReserveDrunkDriver 2h ago
It all started with Google. Sam Altman literally used Google’s transformer architecture (theory) and combined it with generative pre-training.
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u/redditsuckscockss 2h ago
Google isn’t just AI though… AI disappears tomorrow google still makes 100s of billions like it did pre AI…
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u/lemonylol 2h ago
Oh yeah, Google is definitely going to fail if a bubble pops. Just like the other 4 or 5 bubbles they already immensely benefited from. It'll be different this time for cinematic purposes.
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u/DoomBuzzer 4h ago
Amazing delivery! Very funny 😂
You have a very positive energy even though you presented a grim, realistic scenario!
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u/Kampvilja 4h ago
It is the "it could work!" Punchline that I love. Like, we have all of our eggs in this one stupid basket but maybe we won't drop it? (We probably will drop it).
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u/CopiousCool 3h ago
Spoiler: Its ain't gonna work ... it's a bunch of lies and automation that 'looks' like intelligence when you ask questions about fields you are NOT proficient in ... the minute you ask it something about a topic you nknow well you see the flaws ... it cant even tell time, use a stop watch or do basic math reliably
When was the last time your calculator hallucinated or gave you a wrong answer? ....I'll wait
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u/Recursive_Death 1h ago
Consumer-facing chatbots are the tail-end of the implementation. They are not planning to make money from chuds using ChatGPT to win arguments. The real money is in B2B and large enterprise deals for renting out AI systems to serve private tokens and automate whatever they can get away with. Retail customers are just free marketing and hooks; it's the standard Microsoft/SV playbook that has dominated for decades.
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u/arachnophilia 37m ago
and automate whatever they can get away with
we're about to find out how many jobs can really be replaced with barely functional bullshit.
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u/osubmw1 4h ago edited 3h ago
Gonna be honest, her laughing makes me pretty fucking angry. I used to work construction management for a contractor that flexed to mainly building datacenters so I walked. Seeing people laugh about this while they collect their fat check is pretty gross.
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u/Sauli_Niinisto 3h ago
She might agree with him, and the laugh might be cathartic.
Lots of people study at the university dreaming of changing the world to the better, only to get trapped in an enemy-of-the-planeteers -job to not end up on the street.
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u/41421356 2h ago
Agreed.
Hahahahaha... (oh god, if I don't use AI daily for almost every aspect of my job I'll get fired and since the job market is fucked I'll probably lose my house and make my kids homeless) ..hahahahaha!
Yeah, not everyone has a choice. This is a living nightmare, and I have no remaining career prospects that can both avoid AI and feed my kids, making me a huge hypocrite every time I talk shit about AI use, which is all the time lately.
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u/Corbitant 3h ago
Maam you need to stop laughing and get a hold of yourself, this is a comedy show!
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u/Infinite-Curves 4h ago
I want to laugh and cry
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u/tkflash20 4h ago
It's one of those where you begin laughing and then reality sets in and you're looking like Ben Affleck outside smoking a cigarette.
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u/blutosings 2h ago
You know the saying, when your cabbie or standup comedian, thinks it's a bubble, buy. When they start promoting it, sell.
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u/getafterit3 2h ago
Index funds where most people’s retirements are invested are not propping up funding for AI. But, by definition, represent the overall stock market and any downturn will bring index fund value down, and devaluating everyone’s savings
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u/Dull_Construction553 1h ago edited 1h ago
Except for the fact that these companies would make up a tiny fraction of the index funds. If Anthropic comes in at 1T, they’d constitute 0.6% of the S&P. If it goes all the way to 3T (~1.8% of S&P), and then has a colossal valuation collapse to, say, 200B (ie, more than 90% loss), then that’s a grand total wipeout of a massive…1.6% of the S&P.
Even for tracking funds it’s that same fraction of a fraction. The idea that an index fund would suffer a wipeout from a constituent company collapsing just goes to show a lack of understanding of the mechanism.
Besides which, of course, on that 1>3>0.2 ride, retail investors would be a lot less constrained than a VC with a lockup…If the collapse really comes, those VCs be the ones far more affected, being in for the -93.3% while index fund investors get hit with -1.6%. If it doesn’t collapse and VCs get out of it, well, doesn’t collapse, so? If it takes long enough such that VCs can get their investments out, and then it still collapses, then why were public institutions or retail invesors not reacting at all?
This is the index fund version of that same “the rich use their assets to collateralize debt and avoid paying taxes” silliness.
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u/jamesdmc 1h ago
Nvda is bigger than the entire American healthcare industry. There are 7 more like this and they are kind of the only reason the s&p is up.
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u/Dull_Construction553 1h ago edited 1h ago
Oh, I definitely know the concentration and intrinsic problems there. But he’s fundamentally talking about VC backed AI companies and their use of indices to “manipulate” the market, of which NVidia is not.
There are 100% problems worth discussing with the current Mag7 setup and excitement about AI but the specific context of this joke is a genuine misunderstanding that gets both index funds and VC exits wrong.
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u/noiserr 1h ago
Technically: taking all our jobs, and being a bubble are opposite bets. So either AI is really good and will take our jobs, or it's going to crash and we keep our jobs.
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u/DM725 4h ago
I miss the days when I didn't know what exit liquidity meant... Oh to be naive again!
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u/CurrentDismal9115 4h ago
Hey, but at least the scammers have been able to really up their game! They'll never be out of a job!
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u/thepensivepoet 4h ago
If you are just a normal ass person who wants to chat with an LLM and get questionable recipes you can download a pretrained model from huggingface and run it with no internet connection on consumer grade hardware.
If you are a big company who wants to use AI agents or replace your developers with LLMs you can (and will be financially incentivized by crazy token costs) to locally host your own on better server hardware inside your own infrastructure.
Neither of these cases require subscription and token fees to flow from your wallet to xAI/anthropic/etc.
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u/BeenDragonn 3h ago
She's basically what's wrong with humanity.
Laughing at the bleak future of this planet...because money
Her great grand children will suffer because of her actions...
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u/Roklam 4h ago
Since we're placing long bets on our future, just want to point out that the Aliens could still be out there.
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u/lokithesiberianhusky 3h ago
It’s not only that the ultra rich aren’t working with the rest of us, it’s that they’re actively working against us.
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u/GenXPowaah 3h ago
Artificially Inflate is definitely the correct term as that's all it's doing.
The bubble will burst, there's no doubt about that
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u/keithstonee 3h ago
I don't know how I feel about people that just knowingly work in industries that destroy the planet.
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u/Huge_Metal_3812 2h ago
It is a bubble. You can pull an AI model and run it on a local PC with enough ram. Big business is centralizing AI so they run it on their memory/agent/model and their hardware. I built and updated my own model with a shiza Asus laptop.
So anyone with enough gusto / funding can build out their own version of AI with a well equipped PC.
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u/milkyheika 1h ago
Japanese Yen Carry Trade is here. Theyll sell all of their Treasury bonds. Here comes the crash.
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u/Educational-Tea-606 1h ago
Why did you give her the "but it could work" don't throw her that bone. Let her sit in the uncomfortability of her greed
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u/stupiddadjokes 1h ago
She works with money AND has a well cultured man with obvious class. Just look at his shirt!
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u/StrugglingOrthopod 4h ago
Came for the comedy, stayed for the reality check.