The fixed-income market is dealing a heavy hand to equity valuations this morning. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.784%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year note climbed to 5.271%. The global government bond sell-off is being triggered by the expanding conflict in the Middle East. Following U.S. forces launching fresh strikes against Iranian targets and an oil tanker getting struck off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, international Brent crude advanced to $91.71 a barrel. This rapid oil spike is bringing back severe inflation anxieties just as investors prepare for the conclusion of the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Asheville. From an equity perspective, a risk-free rate flirting with 5% completely shifts the equity risk premium math. Are you actively de-risking your portfolio into short-term T-bills, rotating into defensive energy equities, or looking to buy the dip on tech if it bleeds out?

Source: cnbc.com

A Prague court has ruled that Google must pay Czech price-comparison company Heureka roughly 400 million CZK (~$20M) for illegally favoring its own Google Shopping service in search results between 2013 and 2016.
The breakdown is approximately 250M CZK in damages + 150M CZK in interest. The ruling is not final and can still be appealed.
Obviously, $17M is financially insignificant for Alphabet. What seems more interesting from an investor perspective is the precedent: local companies can potentially pursue damages based on Google’s past antitrust behavior, on top of regulatory fines.

Source [novinky.cz]

U.S. Treasury yields increased on Tuesday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East drove global government borrowing costs to their highest point going back to early last year.

The 10-year Treasury note yield - the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt - rose 3 basis points to 4.788% and hit its highest level since Jan. 14, 2025.

The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, which tends to track geopolitical events, was up more than 2 basis points at 5.272%.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically moves in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, climbed more than 1 basis point to 4.362%.

Borrowing costs rose as traders continue to weigh developments in the Middle East after U.S. forces earlier launched fresh strikes against Iran, and a tanker was struck by unknown projectiles off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation pushed oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate futures were last seen more than 1% higher at above $87 per barrel, while Brent crude - the international oil price benchmark - advanced more than 1% to above $92.

Investors are also monitoring the G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, which is set to conclude later Tuesday, as well as a raft of domestic economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI print and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with nonfarm payrolls figures expected Friday.

YouTube has tapped Amazon.com Inc. as its newest affiliate partner in YouTube Shopping, part of the video giant's push to prioritize e-commerce as one of its next big bets.

YouTube creators can now seamlessly tag Amazon products in their videos and livestreams, driving more business directly to the enormous global marketplace while taking a cut from sales.

Though YouTube Shopping has yet to gain the same traction as rival TikTok Shop, more than one million of YouTube's roughly three million creators who are able to make money on the platform are part of its shopping program today.

People are selling everything from tech gadgets and home goods to fashion and beauty products to an audience watching 110 million hours of shopping-related videos on YouTube each day, whether through product reviews, get-ready-with-me videos, outfit hauls or makeup tutorials.

YouTube Shopping lets creators tag products sold by thousands of sellers, from small brands and direct-to-consumer retailers to the likes of Walmart, Sephora and Home Depot. (Google's leading artificial intelligence tool Gemini has made tagging even simpler).

Viewers can click to get more information and buy a product, with creators earning a commission from every purchase. YouTube's shopping tags drive about twice as much engagement as an affiliate link buried in a video description, making it much easier for creators to earn commissions.

Until now, creators couldn't easily tag Amazon products, despite the company being one of YouTubers' most-requested partners.

TikTok cut its own deal with Amazon two years ago, letting users shop for Amazon products through ads without leaving the TikTok app. Though YouTube may have some catching up to do. But it's pretty uniquely positioned to excel at e-commerce in a way that's different from more traditional social media platforms.

I turned 21 recently and was granted access to a custodial adult left by my late grandmother. It was in 2 stocks one of which being Warner Bros Discovery Inclass Series A. Before getting access to this I knew nothing about stocks and I still don’t. My understanding about the Warner bros lawsuit is that if I wait until March 2027 and it goes through I’ll be bought out at 31 a share, if it doesn’t it will probably drop back down and if it delays past March the agreement includes quarterly payments for shareholders. My question is whether I should hold out until March to try and get 31 a share or if I should sell before then? And if I should sell before the buyout how close towards the buyout should I wait until I should sell? Any advice whatsoever would be appreciated.

Samsung Electronics is developing an 8-layer stacked HBM4E memory chip at Nvidia's request, targeting transfer speeds of 17 to 18Gbps; roughly 20% higher than its current samples. The product is slated for Nvidia's custom memory platform, NVHBM, and is expected to be integrated into the Rubin Ultra AI GPU launching next year. The 8-layer architecture reflects a broader shift in AI chip design away from pure capacity expansion toward a balanced optimization of bandwidth, power consumption, and yield. Samsung, with its integrated capability to produce both DRAM and logic-based base dies, is viewed as holding a competitive edge over SK Hynix and Micron in the custom HBM market. If the product passes validation, it could help Samsung narrow the gap with SK Hynix in the high-end HBM segment.

https://finance.biggo.com/news/95b3d9eb-7477-4170-a9a2-5dfc3d46febb

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised in 2025 that he focused on the 10 year Treasury yield.

Instead the yield has moved substantially higher lately.

The yield determines e.g. mortgage rates and significantly the government’s refinancing costs. This has to be paid ultimately by the people.

Falling yields were presented as evidence that the economic strategy was working.

Time to rethink the strategy and which measures would help in your opinion?

what are your thoughts on the next bottleneck stocks here that -- I am sure most of us know of them all --

I personally think it will be in the robotic sector --- OUST, TER, SYNA, CCXI, etc ( a lot of adds in 2026 for me)

- photonics - AAOI, MRVL, CRDO, SIVE, etc (small plays in 2026 for me)

- data center - NBIS, CRWV (great add in 2025 for me)

- energy - BE, CEG, GEV, solar, etc (great add in 2026 for me)

- rare earth - MP

- power semi - ON, NVTS, IFNNY, etc -- not in it

- robotics play -- a lot of sections under here

- yes memory too (2025 amazing add)

Do does anyone believe that putting monthly investments only into VOO is still smart? Like as we improve in life 20 years from now, will it still be one of the best decisions like it was 20 years ago?…. I max my Roth IRA every year into 3 different ETFS. Which I know I won’t get until 60s. I now have extra cash that I am putting into my individual account and it’s all going into VOO and a small % into b.TC ( for the fun of it ) …. Does anyone have any advice for me? Should I continue with VOO or something else or something more??? Thank you for reading this far btw. Have a great day!

Ahead of tomorrow's debut, fast-fashion giant Shein saw its gray-market shares collapse by over 10% on Hong Kong brokerages today, just 24 hours ahead of its official listing on September 1st.

The company's private valuation peaked at roughly $100 billion, but this IPO is debut-pricing at a massively deflated $26.5 billion valuation. It seems the combined pressure of tightening U.S./EU tariff regulations and supply chain scrutiny has completely evaporated institutional enthusiasm.

Shein relies on duty-free exemptions to maintain their low-margin pricing model, how do you see this stock performing over the next quarter? Value play or is the regulatory risk too high?

Source: reuters.com

Oklo (stock specifically) is down so much and seemingly performing like “ultra speculative” Quantam stock. Here’s a few things that confuse me as a believer:

1) They are quite literally 2 YEARS ahead of anyone attempting SMRs from a regulatory, design, and financial standpoint.

2) The DeWittes’ (Jacob and Carolyn, founder couple) have retained nearly almost all their majority equity stake, even through the 600% runup last year.

3) Their plutonium allotment from DOE/Fed Govt is essentially exclusive against competitors . The same for their U-235 supply from early 2025 (only they and Terra Power).

4) All timelines they’ve stated have been on track and I am yet to see delays.

5) They have yet to over spend their cash reserves, issued no further debt, and other than a 5% dilution last year - haven’t created any negative shareholder value.

And lastly 6) The electricity demand our country now requires for everything, has not changed but increased.

I’d love to know what I’m missing here if anyone can provide insight. Best of luck to all and happy trading!

Intel Foundry might win the contract to manufacture base dies for HBM4E memory from SK hynix, according to the South Korean Herald. Reportedly, SK hynix is considering diversifying its base die supplier from solely TSMC to a dual sourcing strategy involving both TSMC and Intel, with Intel Foundry potentially securing a significant portion of the contract. As readers may recall, HBM4E memory allows for the implementation of a base die with custom logic, with DRAM dies stacked on top. Until now, SK hynix has only considered TSMC for this application, but now Intel is also being considered.

For instance, customers could implement custom logic like memory controllers and PHYs directly on the HBM4E base die, significantly reducing the area occupied by these components on the main compute chiplet. SK hynix would send the design to Intel, which would then provide these base dies to SK hynix. The South Korean memory giant would subsequently stack DRAM on top. This approach would free up space on the main compute tile in any AI accelerator for more processing units, reduce latency, and significantly improve performance. However, the question remains as to which Intel node would be used. Up until HBM3E, SK hynix used its own nodes to manufacture base dies. However, as those are 10 nm class nodes, customers are now requiring something more advanced.

For the current HBM4, SK hynix sources TSMC's 12 nm node for base dies, but HBM4E would require something even more advanced. Intel 10 and Intel 4/3 are possibilities, alongside Intel 18A and its variants. However, it makes more financial sense to use an older node like Intel 3 or Intel 4, considering the supply chain and the already high cost of HBM. Whatever node SK hynix chooses, it is a positive sign that Intel Foundry is ready to deliver more. At Hot Chips 2026, we learned that SK hynix has already validated its designs to work with Intel's EMIB-T. TSVs are expected to enable vertical power delivery across multiple stacked chips, supporting SK hynix's concept of vertical power delivery for 3D memory modules at the package level with EMIB-T.

https://www.techpowerup.com/352169/sk-hynix-eyes-intel-foundry-for-hbm4e-base-die-manufacturing

From this article

Key points:

• The analyst said that they had "materially” increased the firm's estimates following a proprietary survey and an analysis of current product improvements.
• Evercore said that its fiscal year 2027 and FY28 earnings per share forecasts are now 10% and 25% above Street consensus, respectively, adding that the current setup of Duolingo "reminds us of the '22 NFLX stock scenario." 
• Evercore expects Duolingo to clock about 99 million daily users in 2028. 

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) stock is up nearly 5% in the premarket session early Tuesday after Evercore ISI doubled its price target on the company, saying that the language-learning platform could be entering a growth cycle that serves as a reminder of Netflix in 2022.

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Duolingo to ‘Outperform’ from ‘In Line’ with a price target of $210, up from $105, as per TheFly. The revised target implies an upside of more than 40% from its last close.

The analyst said that they had "materially” increased the firm's estimates following a proprietary survey and an analysis of current product improvements.

Evercore Sees Netflix-Like Turnaround For DUOL Stock

Evercore said its fiscal year 2027 and FY28 earnings per share forecasts are now 10% and 25% above Street consensus, respectively, adding that Duolingo's current setup "reminds us of the '22 NFLX stock scenario."

The analyst clarified that in that case, after NFLX shares hit a growth wall and the stock collapsed 70%, a series of major, successful product changes led to "a virtuous cycle" of fundamental improvements, positive estimate revisions, and "dramatic share price outperformance."

Duolingo’s Users Are Growing 

Duolingo’s latest quarterly results show app users are growing. The company reported an 18% jump in second-quarter revenue, while total bookings increased 8%. Daily active users increased 23% to 58.7 million, while paid subscribers climbed 17% to 12.7 million.

Evercore expects Duolingo to clock about 99 million daily users in 2028.

Low Threat From AI 

A Barron’s report noted that Evercore’s survey of 1,300 U.S. language learners found that 53% use Duolingo, roughly four times the share for rival Babbel, while user satisfaction rose to 66% from 64% last year.

Although AI tools such as ChatGPT, used by 36% of respondents, pose a competitive risk, there is little evidence of cannibalization, as more than half of ChatGPT users also use Duolingo and 63% of this group use it daily.

Evercore reportedly said that it sees the bigger AI threat as difficulty attracting new casual users. However, churn concerns are rising, with 33% of Duolingo users likely to stop using the app within three months, up from 30% last year.

DUOL Stock: Retail Sentiment

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around DUOL stock was ‘bearish’ even as message volumes surged 850% over 24 hours.

One user said, “$DUOL If AI were killing Duolingo, users should be leaving. The exact opposite is happening. DAUs reached 58.7M, up 23%, accelerating from the previous quarter. Paid subscribers grew 17% and revenue increased 18%. And this is happening while the company is sacrificing short-term monetization to invest more in product and growth. Everyone is focused on quarterly bookings growth while overlooking the fact that more and more people are using Duolingo EVERY single day.”

However, another user said, “$DUOL back to 80s soon.” DUOL stock was trading at $155.50 at the time of writing.

Shares of the company have declined nearly 16% so far in 2026.

Source:

https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:e60b80de5094b:0-duol-stock-rises-premarket-analyst-sees-netflix-like-growth-scenario-doubles-price-target/

Walk into a gym, coffee shop, airport, college campus, or basically anywhere with people under 40 and tell me how many people are wearing Nike.

Meanwhile, you’ve got people walking around in Lululemon, Alo, Athleta, Vuori, On, Hoka, New Balance, etc.

Nike used to be the default. You didn’t even have to think about it. Shoes? Nike. Workout clothes? Nike. Hoodie? Nike.

Nike still seems to think the solution is more Nike.

More collabs. More limited drops. More expensive sneakers. More “innovation.” Meanwhile, the average person is like” Nah, I’m good. These Lululemon pants make my ass look incredible.”

That’s the real problem.

Nike lost the customer while obsessing over hype and sneaker culture. The competitors figured out people don’t just want athletic clothing anymore . they want clothes they can wear to the gym, brunch, work, the airport, and then sit on the couch for 6 hours.

I don’t see Nike rebounding anytime soon, the financials are poor in the pain will most likely continue.

Under the terms of the landmark $17 billion to $18 billion multi-state settlement reached in late August 2026 over youth social media safety and addiction claims:

Initial Payment: Meta must pay $75 million in state legal costs within 30 days of court approval.

Long-Term Schedule: The remaining monetary settlement will be paid out in 10 annual installments over an 8-to-10-year period to the participating U.S. states and territories to fund youth online safety initiatives.

Contingent Portion: Roughly $5 billion (or ~30%) of the total settlement value is conditional. Meta is required to pay that additional portion only if major rival platforms (such as YouTube and TikTok) also enter into similar legal settlements and adopt matching safety restrictions.

‐----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

They have 10 years to pay, its not great but not terrible

Samsung has allocated roughly 70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 to long-term agreements with NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google. Spot HBM prices have moved sharply higher (HBM3E 36GB ~$2,100, several times LTA levels, HBM4 16-stack ~$3,500). DRAM export unit prices rose notably even as volumes fell. Samsung is weighing conversion of a foundry line to memory.

SK Hynix is looking at more Korean capacity and a possible Japan JV. Lower early HBM4 yields are tightening supply further.

This shows that HBM and memory tightness continues to constrain AI accelerator ramps for the biggest hyperscalers customers and supports pricing power for the memory makers imo. I would watch for actual capacity conversion decisions, HBM4 yield progress, and any more updates on customer allocation.

The worst trade I've ever made was META at ATH of $750. And somehow I bought in my IRA. I really don't know what I was thinking. Maybe I invested drunk? Seriously, I've beaten myself up about this every day since.

Since I can't sell at a loss to offset capital gains I've been torn; do I wait for META to eventually get itself together and gain enough for me to get out back at my original price?

Or is it worth eating the loss and using that remaining capital to reinvest in something that will rise and eventually make up the difference? Like investing in the more consistent GOOGL? Even VT?

Obviously we can't know, but I've lost such little hope in META with Zuck's awful business choices. But they have a large hold on social media. By sheer inflation I'd think META would eventually rise in price over the next decade. I'm not pulling out of my IRA anytime soon.

Just recently, Reuters reported that Soitec is signing multi-year contracts with over 10 photonics customers due to surging AI data center demand. However, customers even have to pay deposits and commit to pricing and purchase volumes upfront, so it seems demand isn't just hype.

Up until now, I've seen a lot of talk about things like GPUs, power, and memory.

I don't know if optical interconnects could be another bottleneck too. The thing is LITE, COHR, CRDO, MRVL, and AVGO already went up quite a lot, so maybe people already saw this coming before I did.
Source: Reuters

I’m not an active investor, every stock of mine is doing well except Nike. Now I’m so annoyed because, Nike and intel were, I remember at one point, stressors for me. I just wanted to get rid of them. I had a ton of intel at $20. And I was so worried it’d keep going down, that once it got to $24 I sold.

Like I said I don’t pay attention much. The other day I saw on some finance YouTube channel mention intel was at $90, and that was a current low.

So I was pissed at myself, this is the second time I sold too quickly where it actually hurt.

Anyway. I have a ton of Nike. I mindlessly bought more today because of this whole intel thing, I’m thinking it three years from now Nikes at $100 I’d be pissed that I didn’t buy when it was so low.

Likelihood of that happening is insanely low unless Nike unveils an AI overlord, so I’m feeling some instant regret. With stocks, I just buy and shut my eyes. It’s too stressful for me.

Anyway; any chance this could actually benefit me one day?

I watched a video essay on Nike a while back. Something about how they tanked the resellers market? How the shoes are losing value? Now they’re going in a tech-y direction or something. I don’t know too much

Corporations have now, I believe, started making fake social media posts for attention. They found out, since there is no police force monitoring everything that they now can make ads disguised as acts of kindness and other things as real. In this way, they don't have to pay for ads but get all the benefits of having an ad.

Unfortunately, images are not allowed here in order to show you what is happening. Look up 'Panda Express Feeds The Homeless'

Game, set, match.

Disclaimer:

ex party utility guy. and worked in utility for decades. Have closer insight into the rate plan of the utility company.

The bill basically says doesn’t allow utilities companies to be immune from insurance company suits, but it’s essentially a little bit futile.

What can insurance company do to those claims? do they have rights to sue utility companies on their transmission lines where most fires are at.

heavily populated area like eaton fire isn’t gonnna be pure utility companies responsibility and who else will be on the hook if this law passes? All utilities have the same “dent” and this is an enrichment policy for insurance companies. This can’t happen.

buy them now.

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Was invested in RDDT since 2024 (guh) and after being down tens of thousands of dollars this year, I need to spread the bear sermon so that Jen Wong doesn't take anymore of you young adult's lunch money. There's a thesis changing element that the regards over at r/redditstock are shrugging off

1. **Google's AI overview is here to stay**. Reddit hasn’t been able to significantly grow US DAU for 2.5 years now and this is an enormous and imo insurmountable headwind (**50% of traffic comes from Google**). People that add “Reddit” to the end of their search query are likely DAU/WAU already anyway. I don’t see any compelling arguments that the US market isn’t already capped. It’s been long enough.
   1. Counter: Google's search traffic referrals are low intent!!! RDDT 40-50x PE was given due to sustained growth projections and even 10% slower growth changes the equation significantly.

1. ⁠**Stagnant US DAU for 2 years straight at this point. US market growth is capped**. All the global DAU growth is coming from India (extremely low margins). Since Reddit can't rely on user growth to fuel revenue growth, they can only rely on ARPU growth and that's easily priced in. C-suite talks about converting logged out to logged in users every single earnings call but haven't been able to execute
2. **Low base effect** leading to impressive looking percentages. Growing revenue $100-$150 million per quarter for a $35B company doesn't deserve a high multiple
3. ⁠Terminal growth rate will be reached much quicker than expected because of this and PE will trend towards 10-20 like its more mature peers
4. ⁠Recessionary macro environment leads to less ad spend
5. ⁠New data licensing deals aren't going to be explosive since LLMs have been trained on all previous data already and up to date circlejerks will have diminishing returns. Reddit needs Google way more than Google needs Reddit.
6. **Peers trade at 10-15 fwd PE. We can be generous and assume EPS for the next 12 months will be \~$7. At 15 PE that’s a share price of $105.** Your argument is that revenue is growing 60% YoY!!! My argument is that future growth is *priced in* and with stagnant US DAU that curve is *flattening* quickly rather than accelerating. ARPU growth is priced in. This is all why multiples will compress, not expand. The hyper growth story is over.
   1. Counter: but PINS and SNAP are dogshit companies!!! Correct but unfortunately this is the basket of ad tech companies that RDDT trades with. **PEG of PINS and RDDT is both 0.4**. APP and META also have decent growth and low multiples.
7. $1.2B in projected FCF for 2026 and $1B alotted to buybacks. AND now fully diluted shares is increasing from 206M to 207M. Reddit isn’t expanding its balance sheet and it’s not returning any shareholder value, it’s using all its cash to tread water instead of growing, and it’s using shareholders to fund salaries. All tech companies use SBC but the numbers aren’t conducive to returning shareholder value for this company.
8. I've never bought anything from RDDT and don't really click on the ads either. Myself and most of my friend group HAVE purchased things through Instagram and TikTok. RDDT trails both in average daily time spent on the app by A LOT. **TikTok 1hr 37 minutes, IG 1hr 13min, Reddit 19 min.** Why would advertisers budget a lot of spend on Reddit ads when TikTok and IG would grant way better returns?
9. C-suite sent out RDDT Bag Holder carabiners prior to the last earning report because they didn't have the foresight to see that lower DAU would tank the stock. Is this management team the one you have confidence in?

The reality: RDDT has been FLAT since Nov 2024, investors have missed out on 2 YEARS of opportunity cost, Jen Wong has sold like a BILLION dollars worth of shares, and now there's a thesis changing headwind.

PT $120 by December

inb4 the bulls flock in here **citing only backwards looking data** (60% YoY growth!!!!!), inb4 bottom signal