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As the title says, how do we feel about drafting multiple players on same team. For example; Burden&Odunze, Chase&Higgins, Lamb&Pickens, Henderson&Stevenson, etc. For me if the team situation is good and having both players benefits my draft then sure why not.

Here’s a list of all RBs from last year with a difference of over -15% between their rush attempt share and inside-5 attempt share via fantasypointsdata:

• Irving is one of the biggest bounce back candidates this year. He had 0 carries inside the 5 last year. He had 50% of them in 2024 with only a 43% rush att. share. Gainwell is also not a end zone back, Tucker might be a threat, but he was a non factor in 2024, when Irving was healthy
• Gibbs could also see an uptick in end zone usage as well without Montgomery. Isiah Pacheco had 0 end zone attempt last year, he ist literally no threat at all. Gibbs can score 25 Fantasy PPG this year.
• Bijan should see an uptick as well. Brian Robinson saw a good amount of end zone carries in 2024, but he was not good at converting them
• Tony Pollard is also interesting. His percentage is misleading cause the Titans only hat 12 end zone attempts total. He was at 50% the year prior. If the Titans are not as bad this year (which i dot believe) he can be a value at cost
• Kenneth Walker is also an obvious candidate for more end zone work with no competition in the backfield. He was at 57% end zone usage in 2024.
• Chuba Hubbard should see more work as well without Dowdle. He was at 80% end zone usage in 2024 an Brooks does not profile as an end zone back.
• I'm not sure about Travis Etienne. Kamara is not a threat in the end zone, but Tyler Shough had the most end zone carries for the Saints last year. And the Saints had the 4th fewest end zone touches last year and scored the 2nd fewest TDs, the Jags scored the 9th most end zone TDs. He could see an uptick in usage and still score less TDs than last year.
• I think Achanes end zone usage could actually drop further with Malik Willis. Tua had 0 end zone carries last year, and he still only had 38%
• I also see zero chance for Cook to get more end zone carries. Josh Allen actually had one more end zone rush attempt than Cook last year, broke his foot in Week 16 and still had 37 carries and out-touched Cook 6 to 4 in the end zone over the next three weeks. He's just a maniac.

Both guys are increasingly taking on workloads and slated to be the WR1 on their team. Who is worth stashing over the other?

Tre is behind Bowers, but has no competition whatever other than that and now has Cousins.

Malik seems to have a lot of potential but not proven yet.

After the consensus top 12 RBs, does this guy not have the highest floor among those remaining?

The cowboys just cut RB depth behind Javonte, he already got 36% of the touches last year and dominated pass-pro and goal line snaps. Plus cowboys are a projected good offense, so there will be TD opportunities.

Guys around him in ADP:
Kyren — done it time and again, good offense, but Corum is real competition.

Breece — On the Jets.

ETN — probably so-so offense and Kamara coming back eventually.

I get Javonte lacks a super high ceiling without the receiving or top end speed, but his situation seems great for a 3rd or 4th rounder. What are the holes in this logic?

1. Juwan Johnson vs. Detroit [150 avg ADP]

reasoning:

JJ isn't just a good streaming pick for the first few weeks because Jordyn Tyson is on IR for 4 games, he's an excellent choice because he quietly finished as TE8 last year in PPR, catching 77 passes for 889 yards (5th in receptions, 3rd in yards) ,yet he's being drafted like he's a mid-to-back end TE2, with a ppr consensus ADP around TE16 and a sleeper ADP of TE22. With no clear WR2 established here behind Olave and Johnson scoring just 3 TD's last year, there's a clear path to sustained volume and positive TD regression. Johnson has legitimate season-long top 10 upside (at the TE position) even with Tyson's absence aside. However, if you end up wanting to pivot, you have 4 weeks to watch the waivers for another enticing TE.

Regarding week 1 and why I love this matchup, Detroit is missing both starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph (both on PUP / missing first 4 games )

(this is where it gets interesting though. we have a small sample size from last year, of the 5 games where both of these guys missed together (week 7, and weeks 15-18) (KJ played six games, BB played 12)

Game |Opposing TE production against DET |Fantasy pts from TE room
TB, W7 |Cade Otton 7-65 |13.5
LAR, W15 |Parkinson 5-75-2 TD, Ferguson 1-6 |26.1
PIT, W16 |Freiermuth 4-20, Darnell Washington 3-36 |11.6
MIN, W17*** |Oliver 1-8, Sims 1-3 |3.1
CHI, W18 |Loveland 10-91-1, Kmet 2-16 |28.7 This is a 16.6 PPR per game avg to the opposing TE room. (For perspective, over a full 2025 season, a 16.6 avg would put them about 31th out of 32 teams. (Cinci was 32nd @ 17.45.)

*** = “Week 17 is worth contextualizing: Minnesota started Max Brosmer, who threw for only 51 yards. In the other four games, opposing TE rooms averaged roughly 20 fantasy pts altogether on avg.

Now even though that last year data is exciting, this 2026 detroit defense won't be Cinci defense 2025 territory; Detroit signed Chuck Clark, who is actually a pretty solid fill in at safety( 70.3 overall PFF defensive grade in the 2025 season, 24th among 98 qualified safeties. His PFF coverage grade of 63.4 ranked 38th among 98 qualified safeties. His run-defense grade of 83.1 ranked 7th at the position.)

Both safety replacements are actually above-average in coverage (PFF actually ranks Maddox higher in coverage (11th) than Branch (14th) last year, however Juwan's LB matchups outside of Campbell are where it begins to get interesting.)

In their base 4-3, Detroit has been running Barnes at Sam, Jack at Mike, and Rodriguez at Will.

But when they go Nickel (5 dbs) and remove a linebacker, they usually have been moving barnes inside with campbell (moving rodriguez offield for the db). Here's the trios coverage ratings from last year to drive home what im getting at:

LB |PFF Coverage Grade |Coverage Snaps |Passer Rating Allowed |Coverage Rank
Jack Campbell |71.5 |600 |112.2 |12th of 88 LBs
Derrick Barnes |56.6 |369 |112.4 |43rd of 88 LBs
Malcolm Rodriguez |27.7 |37 |129.2 |Did not qualify This is where the Noah Fant addition matters tremendously. Detroit's best direct answer to Juwan is Jack Campbell in base, but New Orleans doesn't have to leave Johnson attached to the formation and let him follow him through his routes. In 12 personnel, Fant gives the Saints another legitimate receiving TE, allowing them to move Johnson into the slot or across the formation which forces Detroit to make a choice. Stay in base, aka let New Orleans hunt matchups against Barnes or Rodriguez in space. Or go nickel, and the Saints can run Etienne into a lighter box with Fant attached or exploit their size advantage underneath. ( this is something they couldn’t really take advantage of last year. )

Fant will siphon a few targets and perhaps some red-zone work, but unlike Jack Stoll, defenses actually have to respect him as a receiver. That will make it way harder for Detroit to consistently tilt its coverage toward Johnson.

Juwan ran 526 routes in 2025, fifth-most among qualifying tight ends.

His 102 targets were 7th among all qualifying TE's.

He was already a legitimate threat in 2025, and he'll once again be the one exposing the holes in the weakened middle alongside Olave and Etienne, especially when the Lions drop into zone and ask their replacement safeties to cover space. I expect a TE7-10 range finish in Week 1, with volume and potential game script giving him legitimate top-five upside.

One final note: Dalton Kincaid gets this same Detroit defense in Week 2 and is also available late. If the Branch/Joseph absences create the vulnerabilities I'm expecting here, he's another early-season TE candidate who could significantly outperform his draft cost.

Good luck everyone!

I know kicker talk isn’t flashy… but I’m seriously tempted to pick up Spencer Shrader and drop Harrison Mevis. Can someone talk me down? (Or encourage me)

Shrader started last season on a ridiculous heater. I get that his major injury can affect this year’s production. Additionally, I think the Colts offense will not reach the same heights. But his consistency and usage last year makes this tantalizing.

Mevis on the other hand is a fine kicker, but his usage was less consistent. I’m afraid that if I stick with the safe option, Shrader could be gone week 2.

What do you think?

Im talking about from a fantasy football perspective not "in real life".

For me in Re-Draft, its probably Turf Toe or maybe Calf Strain as a close 2nd.

If they miss time, you never know for how long. Then they miss a game or two as a "game time decision", return, and get hurt again (halfway through the game).

Or worse, they return and linger the rest of season at 50% effectiveness, eating up a bench spot while being too good to drop...

After a disappointing fantasy season in Chicago for DJ Moore and more concussion issues for Olave in New Orleans, it's easy to understand why these players are not being drafted higher. But I believe they are both poised for highly productive seasons.

Chris Olave: At least four concussions now in his career, it makes sense why people are concerned drafting him. But he's now in a much-improved offense under Kellen Moore while developing a strong connection with Tyler Shough. Since the Saints were out of contention all of last year, it's easy to miss that over Olave's last 3 games, he had 9+ targets, 85+ receiving yards, and at least 1 TD in each game. Hoping he could pickup where he left off.

DJ Moore: After finishing as WR30 (0.5ppr) with the Bears, DJ Moore left an offense, where at times, he was forgotten about. And now going to the Bills where he is the no doubt WR1 with arguably the most talented QB in the league. Josh Allen finally has a go to WR with much less drama than Diggs. Moore is definitely in the later part of his career but I am hopeful to see a resurgence this year.

Any other WRs falling off the radar in your leagues?

I've been comparing consensus ADP against market-implied player values - season-long player props and prediction markets, de-vigged into projections for each stat category, then converted to draft value (Value Over Replacement Player) in a standard 12-team PPR league. Where the two disagree is where drafts are won or lost, so here are the biggest gaps right now during draft week.

Players the market says are going too LATE (good value at cost):

• Bucky Irving (TB): ADP 53, market has him a top-30 pick (+25 spots)
• Kyren Williams (LAR): ADP 32, market says late 1st/early 2nd (+21)
• Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 35, market rank 18 (+17)
• Tyler Warren (IND): ADP 55, market rank 38 (+17)
• Josh Jacobs (GB): ADP 44, market rank 30 (+14). Unclear if/when he'll actually make an appearance, so not reading too much into this one.

Players the market says are going too EARLY (overvalued, paying the hype tax):

• Bhayshul Tuten (JAX): ADP 59, market rank 149 (-90!). The market simply does not believe in the workload the room is drafting.
• Quinshon Judkins (CLE): ADP 52, market rank 77 (-25)
• Kenneth Walker III (KC): ADP 21, market rank 35 (-14)
• D'Andre Swift (CHI): ADP 48, market rank 60 (-12)
• DJ Moore (BUF): ADP 57, market rank 67 (-11)

Method notes:

• Props are de-vigged before converting to projections, so it's what the market actually prices after you strip the margin.
• ADP is a live aggregate of real drafts across the major platforms, not expert ranks.
• VORP means value over a replacement-level starter at the position, which is why RBs dominate both lists - the position is scarce and the market and the room disagree most violently about it.

The Tuten gap is the one I keep staring at. A 90-spot disagreement in week-of-draft season means somebody is very wrong. Who are you siding with?

DJ Moore is being ranked as the WR24 on Yahoo and ESPN, WR28 on Underdog. He is going behind players like Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Parker Washington to name a few.

Let’s dive into some of these guys. Burden is an advanced metrics darling with tons of talent and draft capital tied to his name (39th pick), he also quite easily passes the eye test.

2.8 YPRR (4th in NFL)
26% TPRR (11th in NFL)
11.7% 1st downs per route run (12th in NFL)
0.56 FPPR (8th in NFL)

Burden is tied to one of the best offenses in the NFL, with an ascending QB in Caleb Williams. He does have good weapons around him with Odunze and Loveland. We haven’t SEEN the top end production with him, so drafting him at his price tag is assuming he’s capable of doing being a top 24 WR, which he is.

Odunze has capital tied to his game but was considerably worse than Burden in advanced metrics. No one truly knows who will be the #1 target earner between these two guys and Loveland. People are just trying to hit a home run and get Caleb’s #1 option in the mid rounds, which is a great bet to take.

Parker Washington was a heavy target earner late last season and is a security blanket for Trevor Lawerence. Coen has been talking about him in high regards all summer and people see him as an asset due for a big season… but he has considerable competition. Meyers just got paid 60m on 20m annual average. Brian Thomas is a former 1300 yard receiver with the heaviest draft capital of the group. No one really knows who the #1 will be. Everyone has their own pick.

Now, DJ Moore. The oldest WR of the group, who also had average at best metrics last season. Are DJ Moore’s best days behind him at 29 years old? It’s possible. Though, if you watch his tape, he wasn’t slow, he wasn’t struggling to make big catches in big moments, he wasn’t slow out of cuts. He was just completely checked out in an offense that wasn’t making him a priority. DJ Moore just a few years ago was not just a WR1, but a top 6 WR in half ppr with Justin Fields throwing him the ball. He also had 3 straight 1150+ yard seasons on the Panthers with the likes of PJ Walker, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield (the bad versions of them lol). Another positive for him is that the Bills gave up a 2nd round pick for Moore while also extending him on a restructured contract.

So DJ Moore is a proven asset across multiple seasons on bad offenses. The Bills have clearly shown throughout the process of acquiring him that they don’t think he’s washed but rather that he will be a huge part of not only this upcoming season but also the new couple of seasons on one of the most explosive offenses we can get our hands on in fantasy football.

We are drafting Josh Allen’s surefire WR1 next to names that either not proven commodities, have significant target competition.. oh and also don’t have Josh Allen.

Everyone is trying to find the next JSN in the mid rounds. Waddle, McConkey, Flowers, Egbuka, DeVonta… but what if we’re overthinking it and it’s DJ Moore

Love, Price, and and Tate are obviously the big 3. Is there anyone that can potentially surpass them?

At the end of the day he is a mid round draft pick with a bunch of camp buzz. What is a realistic floor and ceiling? Floor is obviously is that he is a non factor for fantasy. But can he surpass Worthy in the depth chart and be the guy right behind Rice?

Hey everyone! Bradley Stalder in the house! I’m excited to be kicking off an AMA here at 7 PM EST. I am a Fantasy pros-tracked ranker over the last five years, I finished 8th in running back accuracy in 2025, rankings last year, and had a number one overall weekly finish back in 2021, which just happened to be week 17… Championship week!

I know what it takes to win. I’ve been playing this game for almost 15 years. Most recently I’ve worked for PlayerProfiler the last 3+ years as an analyst and NewsDesk Director.

You can follow me on X at FFStalder, my website bsfantasyfootball dot com , Bradley Stalder Fantasy Football YouTube, and all the socials.

I’m a personal note, I have six kids. So I’m always doing dad things, including being at a back to school night. Let’s make this the best one yet!

Looking forward to talking ball!

I just got done with the team draft ngl I don't know what's happening. I'm so lost. PLZZZZ somebody help me. I beg of you.... I need someone to explain it like I'm 3 plz somebody

I read the noob corner post still kinda lost, any advice?

Raiders GM John Spytek said Ashton Jeanty (ankle) is in a “good spot” and said “I expect him to be back as quick he can, maybe quicker than some people would expect. When that is, we’ll see.”

For a full 1QB positional breakdown, check out my post from last week (the draft data set increased to 117 since then, and all 4 trends held true).

tl;dr - RBs are the most expensive player in 73% of Superflex drafts, up from 14% in 2025. The QB curve flattened behind Allen, and QB6 through QB8 never show up in an optimal QB pair at any budget (based on FantasyPros projections).

Control Group: $200, 12 Team, Superflex, Half & Full PPR, no keepers, no IDP, league spent >90% of budget
2026 Drafts: 60 - Sleeper: 30 (50%); Yahoo: 19 (32%); ESPN: 11 (18%)
2025 Drafts: 76 - Sleeper: 38 (50%); Yahoo: 23 (30%); ESPN: 15 (20%)
Source: Home leagues synced to Auction Cipher
Data: Slot rank (e.g. the AAV for the player drafted as RB1), not player-specific AAV. For the VORP section, slot rank is mapped to projection rank (e.g. the QB5 slot price is compared to the 5th-highest projected QB).
Date: Drafts through Sept 1.

Note: I combined Half & Full PPR leagues in this analysis. For Superflex, the data shows that the extra QB drives the board's prices more than the scoring format. Every trend below holds true in Half and Full PPR on its own. I also omitted WR and TE from this analysis because the overall trends from the 1QB analysis hold true in Superflex.

Superflex Landscape

Total spend is identical from 2025 ($2,368) -> 2026 ($2,367). The missing $33 is attributable to K, DST and leaving small amounts of unspent money.

Trend 1: Increased RB spending from 1QB leagues translates to Superflex leagues

In 2025, the most expensive player in Superflex leagues was typically a QB. In 2026, that has shifted sharply towards RB:

This is somewhat obvious, given that Gibbs and Bijan are consensus 1 and 2 in most places. But, the trend does not stop with the top 2 RBs. The average top 12 priced auction players in 2026 includes 1.6 fewer QBs, with those picks going to RB and WR:

And every RB band in the top 35 costs more when compared to 2025:

Two things stand out. First, when you dive into the individual slots, the RB3 slot is the only RB slot that got cheaper from 2025 to 2026 (same with the 1QB data). This is driving the $9.1 price gap from RB2 -> RB3 (it was only $2.3 in 2025). The second thing that stood out is how much more expensive RB20-35 is in 2026 (+13-14% compared to 2025). No matter what strategy you employ, RB is more expensive in 2026.

How to act on the data: The best way to plan your RB strategy in 2026 is to be 100% player agnostic. Target every player in the top 12, and buy the first one that comes in at or (if you're lucky) slightly below market. Targeting specific players is almost guaranteed to result in overspending. If you play on ESPN, KW3 (-$8) and Saquon (-$5) are undervalued relative to AAV, so attacking platform specific values is another way to extract value (Yahoo and Sleeper do not have any top-12 RB mis-pricings worth targeting purely for value).

Trend 2: After the Allen price cliff, QB spending is flat compared to 2025

Total QB spend in 2026 is the same as 2025 (only down $2), but spending within the QB position has changed significantly. The positional bands below show how the money has shifted from the top 5 QBs to the back half of the QB1s (QB6-12) and the QB2 tier (QB13-24), flattening the curve:

After the QB 1 -> 2 ($9.7 drop) and the QB 2 -> 3 ($4.2 drop), there is not a price drop from 1 QB to the next QB greater than $2.7. In 2025, the biggest drop on the board was $9.1, and it came from QB5 -> QB6. That same drop is now $2.7. With the large shift of money away from the top, the QB position price curve has become very flat. That flattening stops at QB 24 (AAV of $4.8 the last 2 years).

How to act on the data: With the flat price curve not telling us where the obvious investments are, I ran a quick VORP algorithm to help answer that question using FantasyPros projections. Replacement is QB25, the first QB past 12 teams x 2 starters:

• Allen is $0.48 per point, essentially tied with the QB 13-18 band for the best rate on the board, and he is also the most expensive QB. Given the RB trends above, that makes an Allen build difficult.
• QB 2-5 is the worst investment at $0.62 per point. This band got $8.60 cheaper in 2026 and is still the worst buy. Why? QB2 through QB5 project within 5 points of each other and cost $9.30 apart.
• QB 13-18 is the best rate at $0.46, but it is also the most impacted. It was $0.40 in 2025. The mid-tier QB inflation in the table above has already eaten most of the edge that used to be there.

Because most Superflex lineups start 2 QBs, I also ran every QB pair from QB1 to QB25 and kept the best projected total at each price point. In short, every optimal pair above $60 includes Allen. QB6, QB7 and QB8 never appear in an optimal pair at any budget. And QB2, QB3 and QB4 only show up next to Allen at $92+, which is not a realistic build.

Based purely on FP projections and AAV, the recommendation is to avoid QB 2 through QB 10 and either pay up for Allen or punt to two QB 13-18 players in order to invest in RB.

How does the VORP analysis change with better projections?

The answer to this question could be its own series of posts. But the reality is that better projections do not change the optimal build much. In short, the QB point projections are so flat (and it is not just FP, I have heard this from multiple experts all summer) that it makes sense to invest in RB and try to guess which RB 8-12 will make a leap rather than which QB 8-12 will make a leap.

Underlying data is here - Full PPR AAV and Half PPR AAV. Click the analyze button to see the full market analysis.

Good luck in your drafts.